Structural Time Series Model | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 35 | 42.423120707378 | -0.536454295839954 | -0.535153969430316 | -0.504510309327091 |
3 | 30 | 37.5707063165552 | -0.910502139727237 | -0.906019518635422 | -0.482670369349292 |
4 | 43 | 39.3717383284374 | -0.724628295971797 | -0.723725249143463 | 0.311617129891299 |
5 | 82 | 54.8837969970809 | 0.205016243743344 | 0.173483590637783 | 1.91231192742919 |
6 | 40 | 49.5357583130189 | -0.0727582323413861 | -0.0890898628713239 | -0.666320516932519 |
7 | 47 | 48.606876527377 | -0.111537492914559 | -0.124862519085506 | -0.104085971655419 |
8 | 19 | 37.9662909580334 | -0.555338143864358 | -0.523387591298701 | -1.29152864606472 |
9 | 52 | 42.8076867733811 | -0.339417739573498 | -0.334920929099969 | 0.665862475312188 |
10 | 136 | 75.9078301579764 | 0.948491299836869 | 0.75692566386483 | 4.14138810908487 |
11 | 80 | 77.7053781362378 | 0.980278251128173 | 0.783089923268309 | 0.105401379117604 |
12 | 42 | 65.3669955100206 | 0.492344124949019 | 0.393194181783888 | -1.65574493166873 |
13 | 54 | 64.2061788862768 | 0.653008760160395 | -6.43844657844433 | -0.295660017575278 |
14 | 66 | 65.0859486265936 | 0.664134878468642 | 0.594787164476818 | 0.0233695673706991 |
15 | 81 | 71.3272783599212 | 0.8948473339683 | 0.778075571561261 | 0.633567753398398 |
16 | 63 | 68.5441297128717 | 0.761445529328883 | 0.680140942699343 | -0.437806803819148 |
17 | 137 | 93.5319042374669 | 1.56128302656186 | 1.22136009782833 | 2.95266496222554 |
18 | 72 | 86.3812528002129 | 1.29133493561387 | 1.0525006592205 | -1.07498591853264 |
19 | 107 | 94.1901828501254 | 1.48524334616001 | 1.16531334910483 | 0.809509663512126 |
20 | 58 | 81.8558056659016 | 1.08411834793498 | 0.946714671433101 | -1.72236643695966 |
21 | 36 | 65.9203282494317 | 0.596967084970916 | 0.696345842904298 | -2.12480991365475 |
22 | 52 | 61.1121599093323 | 0.443333714354638 | 0.621449324166321 | -0.67528552339475 |
23 | 79 | 67.5326815964517 | 0.612793280676895 | 0.70017379365821 | 0.746855585659811 |
24 | 77 | 71.0435127658619 | 0.694971182715733 | 0.736683551467371 | 0.362039282713133 |
25 | 54 | 69.0385052287001 | 0.75407817933564 | -9.73967339863886 | -0.396505337567518 |
26 | 84 | 74.9311051831513 | 0.951797831871963 | 1.01609578938917 | 0.574767114575583 |
27 | 48 | 65.1735304863158 | 0.583436838471947 | 0.806803756992623 | -1.26495239151841 |
28 | 96 | 76.4591023979964 | 0.923598688231464 | 0.972530311234305 | 1.29736401104334 |
29 | 83 | 79.0557583003902 | 0.974068621662122 | 0.993802681504622 | 0.205427823241077 |
30 | 66 | 74.6429809711397 | 0.816799656884992 | 0.935551856212153 | -0.665688158215429 |
31 | 61 | 69.951840280923 | 0.659064638875852 | 0.883276662637814 | -0.682838818029787 |
32 | 53 | 64.000821178669 | 0.471716621055285 | 0.826753371172598 | -0.820728108069637 |
33 | 30 | 51.8602979082245 | 0.115896257829346 | 0.727563684034799 | -1.56694752511959 |
34 | 74 | 59.5853626616523 | 0.330351620048315 | 0.783461136729015 | 0.945479366505379 |
35 | 69 | 62.8822360396668 | 0.414058955356012 | 0.804047568656673 | 0.368547699959863 |
36 | 59 | 61.4729737292617 | 0.362481835188406 | 0.791998425145238 | -0.226450516503047 |
37 | 42 | 58.4396985395573 | 0.351318784731363 | -10.1600866797838 | -0.463789062377103 |
38 | 65 | 60.7837600750843 | 0.420571350970276 | 0.95908641262252 | 0.230244580275622 |
39 | 70 | 64.0808261008251 | 0.513801551948643 | 0.997267007845133 | 0.344638621124164 |
40 | 100 | 77.0697204674105 | 0.899750931820258 | 1.12442427033465 | 1.52002539466583 |
41 | 63 | 72.1677007441128 | 0.725485564349941 | 1.07740547996331 | -0.712562109766626 |
42 | 105 | 84.0496809829615 | 1.05464215011886 | 1.15195945541313 | 1.3754197354782 |
43 | 82 | 83.575776760005 | 1.01000209930954 | 1.14323990423087 | -0.188779600814963 |
44 | 81 | 82.8882175780331 | 0.960684549915223 | 1.13471768769051 | -0.209813700584229 |
45 | 75 | 80.2654250694565 | 0.856794315065605 | 1.11848171642656 | -0.443017811398387 |
46 | 102 | 88.2152055968729 | 1.06240111734106 | 1.1480636754028 | 0.876873676008276 |
47 | 121 | 100.254898611034 | 1.38093127519407 | 1.19083757649737 | 1.35685396535041 |
48 | 98 | 99.9024825724174 | 1.33054846632392 | 1.18445824453286 | -0.214201122578061 |
49 | 76 | 97.3430104054717 | 1.27047526380495 | -14.3644548249269 | -0.512115122208325 |
50 | 77 | 90.0736754390157 | 0.988474887667156 | 1.19072749621659 | -1.00337159789322 |
51 | 63 | 80.3738378614162 | 0.650331884648239 | 1.08632332811487 | -1.2895433454615 |
52 | 37 | 64.683654827298 | 0.14750517071563 | 0.967822554458863 | -1.99501515439565 |
53 | 35 | 53.7169017394129 | -0.188639592333417 | 0.906055061070709 | -1.36421968001592 |
54 | 23 | 42.2030297272841 | -0.527630206201553 | 0.85606848674527 | -1.39345073704177 |
55 | 40 | 40.7639349088925 | -0.554751905346145 | 0.852754631380394 | -0.112262171198172 |
56 | 29 | 35.8670637169963 | -0.683562496360795 | 0.839294005936016 | -0.535016311880205 |
57 | 37 | 35.5352845081213 | -0.673139957273469 | 0.840252514146987 | 0.0433490954086335 |
58 | 51 | 40.3696788025192 | -0.509991538289096 | 0.853778062787694 | 0.678638124852691 |
59 | 20 | 32.4012555661145 | -0.731040925254369 | 0.836938962988917 | -0.918913562944729 |
60 | 28 | 30.047043947703 | -0.779190235954817 | 0.833519080359946 | -0.199951088265664 |
61 | 13 | 26.94672216137 | -0.830000942269142 | -9.84824892274962 | -0.299328411455958 |
62 | 22 | 24.2623452644642 | -0.889441849941737 | 0.875255740251606 | -0.220058935879261 |
63 | 25 | 23.6468731427873 | -0.880888479337132 | 0.877345391701192 | 0.0331894930708584 |
64 | 13 | 18.9124884576243 | -0.999196261523024 | 0.856205826792138 | -0.471004564764867 |
65 | 16 | 16.9132372597303 | -1.02958264868588 | 0.852153861388714 | -0.1227029206697 |
66 | 13 | 14.5360609566958 | -1.07027440545426 | 0.847989095924405 | -0.165608981947683 |
67 | 16 | 14.0738390280499 | -1.05197961606068 | 0.849474551802775 | 0.0747715180271438 |
68 | 17 | 14.1499933498663 | -1.01810213557944 | 0.851734197168826 | 0.138752512539126 |
69 | 9 | 11.3347929252295 | -1.07202099387734 | 0.84867851603401 | -0.221032978723444 |
70 | 17 | 12.3863939113676 | -1.00832008922009 | 0.85183982268668 | 0.261176424633635 |
71 | 25 | 15.9839210980599 | -0.87013913309131 | 0.85799916992711 | 0.566402017143384 |
72 | 14 | 14.4025348544208 | -0.891485800895536 | 0.857127106405734 | -0.0874561313946556 |
73 | 8 | 14.8131509555157 | -0.858354453988709 | -9.09377249973923 | 0.16586572516737 |
74 | 7 | 11.0888606363171 | -0.948510753350669 | 0.800839309865228 | -0.342299885264517 |
75 | 10 | 9.79797799806993 | -0.959106662082998 | 0.798704262242055 | -0.0415856918264539 |
76 | 7 | 7.88425803990052 | -0.988349479549771 | 0.794537197302047 | -0.116771060348618 |
77 | 10 | 7.73015763195991 | -0.962954764422409 | 0.797138112959865 | 0.102342437320901 |
78 | 3 | 5.11962026097672 | -1.01291628827292 | 0.793371810073669 | -0.202345054044247 |