| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999957692084665 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 16348 | 15579 | 769 |
| 3 | 15928 | 16347.9674652131 | -419.967465213107 |
| 4 | 16171 | 15928.017767948 | 242.982232052038 |
| 5 | 15937 | 16170.9897199283 | -233.989719928299 |
| 6 | 15713 | 15937.0098996173 | -224.00989961726 |
| 7 | 15594 | 15713.0094773919 | -119.009477391868 |
| 8 | 15683 | 15594.0050350429 | 88.9949649571063 |
| 9 | 16438 | 15682.9962348086 | 755.003765191443 |
| 10 | 17032 | 16437.9680573646 | 594.031942635374 |
| 11 | 17696 | 17031.9748677469 | 664.025132253137 |
| 12 | 17745 | 17695.9719064809 | 49.0280935190749 |
| 13 | 19394 | 17744.9979257236 | 1649.00207427643 |
| 14 | 20148 | 19393.9302341599 | 754.069765840148 |
| 15 | 20108 | 20147.9680968802 | -39.9680968801913 |
| 16 | 18584 | 20108.0016909669 | -1524.00169096686 |
| 17 | 18441 | 18584.0644773345 | -143.064477334512 |
| 18 | 18391 | 18441.0060527598 | -50.0060527597961 |
| 19 | 19178 | 18391.0021156518 | 786.997884348155 |
| 20 | 18079 | 19177.9667037601 | -1098.96670376014 |
| 21 | 18483 | 18079.0464949903 | 403.95350500974 |
| 22 | 19644 | 18482.9829095693 | 1161.01709043069 |
| 23 | 19195 | 19643.9508797872 | -448.950879787237 |
| 24 | 19650 | 19195.0189941758 | 454.981005824189 |
| 25 | 20830 | 19649.9807507021 | 1180.01924929787 |
| 26 | 23595 | 20829.9500758455 | 2765.04992415449 |
| 27 | 22937 | 23594.8830165019 | -657.88301650191 |
| 28 | 21814 | 22937.027833659 | -1123.02783365896 |
| 29 | 21928 | 21814.0475129665 | 113.952487033494 |
| 30 | 21777 | 21927.9951789078 | -150.995178907826 |
| 31 | 21383 | 21777.0063882912 | -394.006388291244 |
| 32 | 21467 | 21383.0166695889 | 83.9833304110834 |
| 33 | 22052 | 21466.9964468404 | 585.003553159633 |
| 34 | 22680 | 22051.9752497192 | 628.024750280798 |
| 35 | 24320 | 22679.973429582 | 1640.02657041796 |
| 36 | 24977 | 24319.9306138947 | 657.06938610529 |
| 37 | 25204 | 24976.972200764 | 227.027799235955 |
| 38 | 25739 | 25203.9903949271 | 535.009605072908 |
| 39 | 26434 | 25738.9773648589 | 695.022635141075 |
| 40 | 27525 | 26433.9705950412 | 1091.0294049588 |
| 41 | 30695 | 27524.9538408203 | 3170.04615917969 |
| 42 | 32436 | 30694.8658819555 | 1741.13411804451 |
| 43 | 30160 | 32435.9263362451 | -2275.92633624515 |
| 44 | 30236 | 30160.0962896987 | 75.9037103012561 |
| 45 | 31293 | 30235.9967886723 | 1057.00321132775 |
| 46 | 31077 | 31292.9552803976 | -215.955280397626 |
| 47 | 32226 | 31077.0091366177 | 1148.99086338228 |
| 48 | 33865 | 32225.9513885918 | 1639.04861140817 |
| 49 | 32810 | 33864.9306552701 | -1054.93065527012 |
| 50 | 32242 | 32810.0446319168 | -568.044631916848 |
| 51 | 32700 | 32242.0240327842 | 457.975967215807 |
| 52 | 32819 | 32699.9806239916 | 119.019376008448 |
| 53 | 33947 | 32818.9949645383 | 1128.00503546168 |
| 54 | 34148 | 33946.9522764585 | 201.047723541538 |
| 55 | 35261 | 34147.9914940899 | 1113.00850591007 |
| 56 | 39506 | 35260.9529109304 | 4245.04708906964 |
| 57 | 41591 | 39505.8204009072 | 2085.17959909284 |
| 58 | 39148 | 41590.9117803981 | -2442.91178039806 |
| 59 | 41216 | 39148.1033545048 | 2067.89664549522 |
| 60 | 40225 | 41215.9125116038 | -990.912511603798 |
| 61 | 41126 | 40225.0419234426 | 900.958076557356 |
| 62 | 42362 | 41125.961882342 | 1236.03811765803 |
| 63 | 40740 | 42361.947705804 | -1621.94770580397 |
| 64 | 40256 | 40740.0686212262 | -484.068621226215 |
| 65 | 39804 | 40256.0204799342 | -452.020479934246 |
| 66 | 41002 | 39804.0191240442 | 1197.98087595581 |
| 67 | 41702 | 41001.9493159265 | 700.050684073474 |
| 68 | 42254 | 41701.9703823149 | 552.029617685075 |
| 69 | 43605 | 42253.9766447777 | 1351.02335522233 |
| 70 | 43271 | 43604.9428410183 | -333.942841018274 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 71 | 43271.0141284254 | 41038.7862471015 | 45503.2420097494 |
| 72 | 43271.0141284254 | 40114.2339634501 | 46427.7942934008 |
| 73 | 43271.0141284254 | 39404.7910740992 | 47137.2371827517 |
| 74 | 43271.0141284254 | 38806.7000263907 | 47735.3282304602 |
| 75 | 43271.0141284254 | 38279.7697848325 | 48262.2584720184 |
| 76 | 43271.0141284254 | 37803.3876055848 | 48738.6406512661 |
| 77 | 43271.0141284254 | 37365.3084560191 | 49176.7198008318 |
| 78 | 43271.0141284254 | 36957.5539689792 | 49584.4742878716 |
| 79 | 43271.0141284254 | 36574.5823262836 | 49967.4459305673 |
| 80 | 43271.0141284254 | 36212.358549878 | 50329.6697069729 |
| 81 | 43271.0141284254 | 35867.8365490086 | 50674.1917078423 |
| 82 | 43271.0141284254 | 35538.6498090078 | 51003.3784478431 |
