| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.695307440358141 |
| beta | 0.604332080366294 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 109 | 109.640224358974 | -0.640224358974336 |
| 14 | 106 | 105.892980409401 | 0.107019590599037 |
| 15 | 101 | 100.585270004968 | 0.414729995032417 |
| 16 | 98 | 97.332447731361 | 0.667552268638985 |
| 17 | 93 | 92.6192511872291 | 0.380748812770861 |
| 18 | 91 | 90.9916274198178 | 0.00837258018218279 |
| 19 | 122 | 120.316939150267 | 1.68306084973342 |
| 20 | 139 | 143.180557194543 | -4.18055719454321 |
| 21 | 140 | 135.043835433051 | 4.95616456694856 |
| 22 | 132 | 130.217507752862 | 1.78249224713778 |
| 23 | 117 | 122.808499262831 | -5.80849926283135 |
| 24 | 114 | 114.597372968445 | -0.597372968444859 |
| 25 | 113 | 113.438495875061 | -0.438495875061193 |
| 26 | 110 | 109.628584004889 | 0.371415995111221 |
| 27 | 107 | 104.278955018497 | 2.72104498150308 |
| 28 | 103 | 103.35635703772 | -0.356357037719931 |
| 29 | 98 | 98.0631919118164 | -0.0631919118164319 |
| 30 | 98 | 96.04624026485 | 1.95375973515003 |
| 31 | 137 | 128.084711943256 | 8.91528805674386 |
| 32 | 148 | 158.079560537953 | -10.0795605379531 |
| 33 | 147 | 150.035577854374 | -3.03557785437374 |
| 34 | 139 | 136.737903788676 | 2.26209621132432 |
| 35 | 130 | 125.603342745252 | 4.39665725474785 |
| 36 | 128 | 128.617794980843 | -0.617794980842916 |
| 37 | 127 | 130.026611582565 | -3.02661158256481 |
| 38 | 123 | 126.109904929483 | -3.10990492948336 |
| 39 | 118 | 119.038730088323 | -1.03873008832309 |
| 40 | 114 | 112.967554374695 | 1.03244562530546 |
| 41 | 108 | 107.716212797608 | 0.283787202392489 |
| 42 | 111 | 105.687721403064 | 5.31227859693607 |
| 43 | 151 | 142.726413230296 | 8.27358676970371 |
| 44 | 159 | 166.761743525768 | -7.7617435257678 |
| 45 | 158 | 163.723794597779 | -5.72379459777895 |
| 46 | 148 | 150.289755014082 | -2.28975501408172 |
| 47 | 138 | 134.846580156154 | 3.15341984384639 |
| 48 | 137 | 133.152267101825 | 3.84773289817539 |
| 49 | 136 | 136.491982781657 | -0.49198278165693 |
| 50 | 133 | 134.937218728046 | -1.93721872804622 |
| 51 | 126 | 130.430226835739 | -4.43022683573895 |
| 52 | 120 | 122.324628598513 | -2.3246285985132 |
| 53 | 114 | 112.792985106083 | 1.20701489391688 |
| 54 | 116 | 111.608509259779 | 4.39149074022092 |
| 55 | 153 | 147.192291638054 | 5.807708361946 |
| 56 | 162 | 161.874111425879 | 0.125888574120921 |
| 57 | 161 | 165.502674714493 | -4.50267471449251 |
| 58 | 149 | 155.038360650625 | -6.03836065062518 |
| 59 | 139 | 138.146441438474 | 0.853558561525716 |
| 60 | 135 | 133.597370027533 | 1.40262997246685 |
| 61 | 130 | 131.420084738843 | -1.42008473884309 |
| 62 | 127 | 125.895042936599 | 1.10495706340092 |
| 63 | 122 | 121.137400472428 | 0.862599527572172 |
| 64 | 117 | 117.971234489138 | -0.971234489138311 |
| 65 | 112 | 111.643103664961 | 0.356896335039124 |
| 66 | 113 | 111.667025413854 | 1.33297458614629 |
| 67 | 149 | 145.099736919269 | 3.90026308073084 |
| 68 | 157 | 155.466612783312 | 1.53338721668752 |
| 69 | 157 | 157.99748287417 | -0.997482874170487 |
| 70 | 147 | 150.309263683071 | -3.3092636830709 |
| 71 | 137 | 139.368400633311 | -2.36840063331127 |
| 72 | 132 | 133.346096952098 | -1.34609695209778 |
| 73 | 125 | 127.842257481683 | -2.84225748168299 |
| 74 | 123 | 120.944853971091 | 2.05514602890926 |
| 75 | 117 | 116.02043072273 | 0.97956927726996 |
| 76 | 114 | 111.67237968266 | 2.32762031733962 |
| 77 | 111 | 108.724346863854 | 2.27565313614581 |
| 78 | 112 | 111.867761475502 | 0.132238524497581 |
| 79 | 144 | 146.231243967162 | -2.23124396716159 |
| 80 | 150 | 150.020647530994 | -0.0206475309939549 |
| 81 | 149 | 148.453827944566 | 0.546172055433715 |
| 82 | 134 | 139.537159171357 | -5.53715917135727 |
| 83 | 123 | 124.800361763797 | -1.80036176379676 |
| 84 | 116 | 117.189660038022 | -1.18966003802218 |
| 85 | 117 | 109.109609572355 | 7.89039042764503 |
| 86 | 111 | 113.447606728782 | -2.44760672878189 |
| 87 | 105 | 105.453332698969 | -0.453332698968595 |
| 88 | 102 | 100.306281795075 | 1.69371820492466 |
| 89 | 95 | 96.4218610199739 | -1.42186101997392 |
| 90 | 93 | 94.3078041090277 | -1.30780410902773 |
| 91 | 124 | 124.311297771658 | -0.311297771658317 |
| 92 | 130 | 128.277380403361 | 1.72261959663928 |
| 93 | 124 | 126.996061944378 | -2.99606194437798 |
| 94 | 115 | 111.175159910872 | 3.82484008912844 |
| 95 | 106 | 105.432538953496 | 0.56746104650378 |
| 96 | 105 | 101.995363733119 | 3.00463626688089 |
| 97 | 105 | 103.701776942168 | 1.29822305783188 |
| 98 | 101 | 101.639788429705 | -0.63978842970495 |
| 99 | 95 | 97.6032916275089 | -2.60329162750888 |
| 100 | 93 | 92.805290559855 | 0.194709440144976 |
| 101 | 84 | 87.4891674945408 | -3.48916749454081 |
| 102 | 87 | 83.6636376332915 | 3.33636236670846 |
| 103 | 116 | 118.842534123659 | -2.84253412365896 |
| 104 | 120 | 122.247383143351 | -2.24738314335077 |
| 105 | 117 | 115.678797830657 | 1.32120216934267 |
| 106 | 109 | 105.66295217061 | 3.3370478293896 |
| 107 | 105 | 99.1086502359013 | 5.89134976409866 |
| 108 | 107 | 102.872867272058 | 4.12713272794244 |
| 109 | 109 | 108.068562064532 | 0.93143793546821 |
| 110 | 109 | 108.235658439083 | 0.764341560917472 |
| 111 | 108 | 108.241820480432 | -0.241820480431699 |
| 112 | 107 | 110.595201735688 | -3.59520173568805 |
| 113 | 99 | 104.585871336071 | -5.58587133607136 |
| 114 | 103 | 103.565544046611 | -0.565544046611237 |
| 115 | 131 | 134.692552600611 | -3.69255260061067 |
| 116 | 137 | 137.874341069117 | -0.87434106911698 |
| 117 | 135 | 134.111336664669 | 0.888663335330818 |
| 118 | 124 | 124.990778510046 | -0.990778510046482 |
| 119 | 118 | 114.96886743821 | 3.03113256178965 |
| 120 | 121 | 113.768240770149 | 7.23175922985111 |
| 121 | 121 | 119.014884920183 | 1.98511507981698 |
| 122 | 118 | 119.172433253314 | -1.17243325331435 |
| 123 | 113 | 116.020280514417 | -3.02028051441711 |
| 124 | 107 | 112.747437326284 | -5.74743732628427 |
| 125 | 100 | 101.058147040088 | -1.05814704008814 |
| 126 | 102 | 103.04121858084 | -1.04121858084048 |
| 127 | 130 | 131.010416100772 | -1.01041610077186 |
| 128 | 136 | 136.168531984238 | -0.168531984237802 |
| 129 | 133 | 132.982764650069 | 0.0172353499310134 |
| 130 | 120 | 121.866781554761 | -1.86678155476075 |
| 131 | 112 | 111.276269301248 | 0.723730698752178 |
| 132 | 109 | 107.59667011642 | 1.40332988358017 |
| 133 | 110 | 102.588545868111 | 7.41145413188904 |
| 134 | 106 | 103.233511137879 | 2.76648886212139 |
| 135 | 102 | 101.588741093429 | 0.411258906570936 |
| 136 | 98 | 100.644495729204 | -2.64449572920375 |
| 137 | 92 | 94.6189084888621 | -2.61890848886213 |
| 138 | 92 | 96.9435151218556 | -4.94351512185555 |
| 139 | 120 | 121.990656566231 | -1.99065656623122 |
| 140 | 127 | 126.093680541658 | 0.906319458341585 |
| 141 | 124 | 123.533477004886 | 0.46652299511446 |
| 142 | 114 | 112.166239823881 | 1.83376017611918 |
| 143 | 108 | 106.503405406951 | 1.49659459304858 |
| 144 | 106 | 105.458361656214 | 0.541638343786019 |
| 145 | 111 | 103.20975637939 | 7.79024362061035 |
| 146 | 110 | 104.390005248253 | 5.60999475174683 |
| 147 | 104 | 106.886751252554 | -2.88675125255362 |
| 148 | 100 | 104.214522846393 | -4.21452284639288 |
| 149 | 96 | 97.9415739294778 | -1.9415739294778 |
| 150 | 98 | 101.149953267321 | -3.14995326732083 |
| 151 | 122 | 130.218641515419 | -8.21864151541936 |
| 152 | 134 | 130.13176607712 | 3.86823392287951 |
| 153 | 133 | 129.999365178452 | 3.00063482154755 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 154 | 122.377891137719 | 115.879992983402 | 128.875789292037 |
| 155 | 116.133947341894 | 106.399347145932 | 125.868547537855 |
| 156 | 113.925127783903 | 99.9845605667641 | 127.865695001043 |
| 157 | 113.448704458603 | 94.5843542049058 | 132.313054712299 |
| 158 | 105.214790574003 | 80.837640629022 | 129.591940518983 |
| 159 | 95.5314267296206 | 65.1275665937346 | 125.935286865507 |
| 160 | 89.9842753915918 | 53.0895381564434 | 126.87901262674 |
| 161 | 84.6276538967256 | 40.8139993710687 | 128.441308422382 |
| 162 | 86.9270702943752 | 35.7944106443963 | 138.059729944354 |
| 163 | 116.074382971437 | 57.2452284169079 | 174.903537525967 |
| 164 | 128.271046380607 | 61.3867577842325 | 195.155334976982 |
| 165 | 126.445539189016 | 51.1635699055473 | 201.727508472484 |
