| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.0280206527746909 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 104 | 106 | -2 |
| 4 | 100 | 98.9439586944506 | 1.05604130554939 |
| 5 | 93 | 94.9735496611892 | -1.97354966118915 |
| 6 | 91 | 87.9182495113994 | 3.08175048860065 |
| 7 | 119 | 86.0046021717787 | 32.9953978282213 |
| 8 | 139 | 114.929154757486 | 24.0708452425139 |
| 9 | 134 | 135.60363555402 | -1.60363555401986 |
| 10 | 124 | 130.558700638984 | -6.55870063898351 |
| 11 | 113 | 120.374921565725 | -7.37492156572542 |
| 12 | 109 | 109.168271449292 | -0.168271449291652 |
| 13 | 109 | 105.163556373439 | 3.83644362656085 |
| 14 | 106 | 105.271056028189 | 0.728943971811319 |
| 15 | 101 | 102.291481514115 | -1.29148151411502 |
| 16 | 98 | 97.2552933590431 | 0.744706640956935 |
| 17 | 93 | 94.2761605252483 | -1.27616052524833 |
| 18 | 91 | 89.2404016742856 | 1.75959832571442 |
| 19 | 122 | 87.2897067679934 | 34.7102932320066 |
| 20 | 139 | 119.262311842355 | 19.7376881576449 |
| 21 | 140 | 136.815374748796 | 3.18462525120438 |
| 22 | 132 | 137.904610027177 | -5.90461002717711 |
| 23 | 117 | 129.739158999836 | -12.7391589998356 |
| 24 | 114 | 114.38219944886 | -0.382199448859652 |
| 25 | 113 | 111.371489970812 | 1.62851002918752 |
| 26 | 110 | 110.41712188488 | -0.417121884880444 |
| 27 | 107 | 107.405433857379 | -0.405433857379492 |
| 28 | 103 | 104.394073336039 | -1.39407333603876 |
| 29 | 98 | 100.355010491147 | -2.35501049114715 |
| 30 | 98 | 95.289021559894 | 2.71097844010603 |
| 31 | 137 | 95.3649849454439 | 41.6350150545561 |
| 32 | 148 | 135.531625245557 | 12.4683747544434 |
| 33 | 147 | 146.880997245216 | 0.119002754784418 |
| 34 | 139 | 145.884331780087 | -6.88433178008663 |
| 35 | 130 | 137.691428309691 | -7.69142830969105 |
| 36 | 128 | 128.475909467684 | -0.475909467683778 |
| 37 | 127 | 126.462574173738 | 0.537425826262393 |
| 38 | 123 | 125.477633196207 | -2.47763319620746 |
| 39 | 118 | 121.408208296713 | -3.40820829671348 |
| 40 | 114 | 116.312708075447 | -2.31270807544746 |
| 41 | 108 | 112.247904485496 | -4.24790448549612 |
| 42 | 111 | 106.128875428888 | 4.87112457111202 |
| 43 | 151 | 109.265367519117 | 41.7346324808826 |
| 44 | 159 | 150.434799164544 | 8.56520083545647 |
| 45 | 158 | 158.674801683099 | -0.674801683099332 |
| 46 | 148 | 157.655893299445 | -9.65589329944544 |
| 47 | 138 | 147.385328866072 | -9.38532886607223 |
| 48 | 137 | 137.12234582474 | -0.12234582473971 |
| 49 | 136 | 136.118917614866 | -0.118917614866263 |
| 50 | 133 | 135.115585465671 | -2.1155854656713 |
| 51 | 126 | 132.056305379923 | -6.05630537992255 |
| 52 | 120 | 124.886603749774 | -4.88660374977424 |
| 53 | 114 | 118.749677922854 | -4.7496779228543 |
| 54 | 116 | 112.616588846986 | 3.38341115301361 |
| 55 | 153 | 114.711394236099 | 38.288605763901 |
| 56 | 162 | 152.784265963436 | 9.2157340365637 |
| 57 | 161 | 162.042496846939 | -1.04249684693875 |
| 58 | 149 | 161.013285404772 | -12.013285404772 |
| 59 | 139 | 148.676665305762 | -9.67666530576159 |
| 60 | 135 | 138.405518827212 | -3.40551882721195 |
| 61 | 130 | 134.310093966637 | -4.31009396663697 |
| 62 | 127 | 129.189322320172 | -2.18932232017156 |
| 63 | 122 | 126.127976079626 | -4.12797607962614 |
| 64 | 117 | 121.012307495237 | -4.01230749523671 |
| 65 | 112 | 115.899880020087 | -3.89988002008739 |
| 66 | 113 | 110.790602836182 | 2.20939716381844 |
| 67 | 149 | 111.85251158695 | 37.1474884130497 |
| 68 | 157 | 148.893408461224 | 8.10659153877577 |
| 69 | 157 | 157.120560447919 | -0.120560447918507 |
| 70 | 147 | 157.117182265469 | -10.117182265469 |
| 71 | 137 | 146.83369221415 | -9.83369221415006 |
| 72 | 132 | 136.558145739124 | -4.55814573912417 |
| 73 | 125 | 131.430423520072 | -6.43042352007174 |
| 74 | 123 | 124.250238855422 | -1.2502388554216 |
| 75 | 117 | 122.215206346568 | -5.21520634656841 |
| 76 | 114 | 116.069072860383 | -2.06907286038285 |
| 77 | 111 | 113.011096088197 | -2.01109608819652 |
| 78 | 112 | 109.954743863013 | 2.04525613698736 |
| 79 | 144 | 111.012053275062 | 32.9879467249375 |
| 80 | 150 | 143.936397075992 | 6.06360292400805 |
| 81 | 149 | 150.106303188089 | -1.10630318808916 |
| 82 | 134 | 149.075303850592 | -15.0753038505922 |
| 83 | 123 | 133.652883995922 | -10.6528839959218 |
| 84 | 116 | 122.354383232423 | -6.354383232423 |
| 85 | 117 | 115.17632926627 | 1.82367073373004 |
| 86 | 111 | 116.227429710675 | -5.22742971067517 |
| 87 | 105 | 110.080953717848 | -5.08095371784825 |
| 88 | 102 | 103.938582077956 | -1.93858207795614 |
| 89 | 95 | 100.884261742674 | -5.8842617426745 |
| 90 | 93 | 93.7193808875476 | -0.719380887547615 |
| 91 | 124 | 91.6992233654849 | 32.3007766345151 |
| 92 | 130 | 123.604312211913 | 6.39568778808651 |
| 93 | 124 | 129.783523558679 | -5.78352355867878 |
| 94 | 115 | 123.621465453227 | -8.6214654532268 |
| 95 | 106 | 114.379886363353 | -8.37988636335295 |
| 96 | 105 | 105.145076477274 | -0.14507647727406 |
| 97 | 105 | 104.141011339679 | 0.858988660321401 |
| 98 | 101 | 104.165080762667 | -3.16508076266686 |
| 99 | 95 | 100.076393133612 | -5.07639313361231 |
| 100 | 93 | 93.9341492842675 | -0.934149284267534 |
| 101 | 84 | 91.9079738115334 | -7.90797381153335 |
| 102 | 87 | 82.686387223209 | 4.31361277679098 |
| 103 | 116 | 85.807257469032 | 30.192742530968 |
| 104 | 120 | 115.653277823808 | 4.34672217619215 |
| 105 | 117 | 119.775075816615 | -2.77507581661499 |
| 106 | 109 | 116.697316380734 | -7.69731638073418 |
| 107 | 105 | 108.481632551133 | -3.48163255113268 |
| 108 | 107 | 104.384074934328 | 2.61592506567168 |
| 109 | 109 | 106.457374862278 | 2.54262513772187 |
| 110 | 109 | 108.528620878398 | 0.471379121601572 |
| 111 | 108 | 108.54182922909 | -0.541829229090069 |
| 112 | 107 | 107.526646820399 | -0.526646820398554 |
| 113 | 99 | 106.511889832709 | -7.51188983270927 |
| 114 | 103 | 98.3014017760252 | 4.6985982239748 |
| 115 | 131 | 102.433059565387 | 28.566940434613 |
| 116 | 137 | 131.233523884141 | 5.76647611585946 |
| 117 | 135 | 137.395104309117 | -2.39510430911659 |
| 118 | 124 | 135.327991922912 | -11.3279919229117 |
| 119 | 118 | 124.010574194605 | -6.01057419460525 |
| 120 | 121 | 117.842153982122 | 3.1578460178783 |
| 121 | 121 | 120.930638888905 | 0.0693611110953896 |
| 122 | 118 | 120.932582432515 | -2.93258243251468 |
| 123 | 113 | 117.85040955844 | -4.85040955844003 |
| 124 | 107 | 112.714497916388 | -5.71449791638794 |
| 125 | 100 | 106.554373954491 | -6.55437395449114 |
| 126 | 102 | 99.3707161177569 | 2.62928388224313 |
| 127 | 130 | 101.444390368467 | 28.5556096315327 |
| 128 | 136 | 130.244537190722 | 5.7554628092779 |
| 129 | 133 | 136.405809015659 | -3.40580901565852 |
| 130 | 120 | 133.310376023814 | -13.3103760238138 |
| 131 | 112 | 119.93741059895 | -7.93741059894998 |
| 132 | 109 | 111.714999172627 | -2.71499917262665 |
| 133 | 110 | 108.638923123527 | 1.36107687647309 |
| 134 | 106 | 109.677061386082 | -3.67706138608222 |
| 135 | 102 | 105.574027725752 | -3.57402772575158 |
| 136 | 98 | 101.473881135841 | -3.47388113584118 |
| 137 | 92 | 97.3765407187532 | -5.37654071875322 |
| 138 | 92 | 91.2258865381441 | 0.774113461855947 |
| 139 | 120 | 91.2475777026669 | 28.7524222973331 |
| 140 | 127 | 120.053239344292 | 6.94676065570822 |
| 141 | 124 | 127.247892112534 | -3.24789211253427 |
| 142 | 114 | 124.156884055399 | -10.1568840553993 |
| 143 | 108 | 113.87228153401 | -5.87228153401016 |
| 144 | 106 | 107.70773637215 | -1.70773637215042 |
| 145 | 111 | 105.659884484236 | 5.34011551576431 |
| 146 | 110 | 110.80951800688 | -0.809518006879657 |
| 147 | 104 | 109.786834783894 | -5.78683478389402 |
| 148 | 100 | 103.62468389575 | -3.62468389575002 |
| 149 | 96 | 99.5231178868892 | -3.5231178868892 |
| 150 | 98 | 95.4243978238964 | 2.57560217610363 |
| 151 | 122 | 97.4965678781587 | 24.5034321218413 |
| 152 | 134 | 122.183170041433 | 11.816829958567 |
| 153 | 133 | 134.5142853306 | -1.51428533059959 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 154 | 133.471854067149 | 111.165205291737 | 155.778502842561 |
| 155 | 133.943708134298 | 101.952314849536 | 165.93510141906 |
| 156 | 134.415562201447 | 94.6868652521848 | 174.14425915071 |
| 157 | 134.887416268596 | 88.3779731661277 | 181.396859371065 |
| 158 | 135.359270335745 | 82.6477211202198 | 188.070819551271 |
| 159 | 135.831124402894 | 77.3051635185357 | 194.357085287253 |
| 160 | 136.302978470043 | 72.238544537743 | 200.367412402344 |
| 161 | 136.774832537193 | 67.3761323999371 | 206.173532674448 |
| 162 | 137.246686604342 | 62.6688539620914 | 211.824519246592 |
| 163 | 137.718540671491 | 58.0815286428831 | 217.355552700098 |
| 164 | 138.19039473864 | 53.5880151173658 | 222.792774359914 |
| 165 | 138.662248805789 | 49.1683308728794 | 228.156166738698 |
