| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 111 | 116 | -5 |
| 3 | 104 | 111.000330534807 | -7.00033053480676 |
| 4 | 100 | 104.00046277058 | -4.00046277058011 |
| 5 | 93 | 100.000264458438 | -7.00026445843777 |
| 6 | 91 | 93.000462766212 | -2.00046276621201 |
| 7 | 119 | 91.0001322445148 | 27.9998677554852 |
| 8 | 139 | 118.998149013824 | 20.0018509861756 |
| 9 | 134 | 138.99867773841 | -4.9986777384099 |
| 10 | 124 | 134.000330447396 | -10.0003304473961 |
| 11 | 113 | 124.000661091458 | -11.0006610914584 |
| 12 | 109 | 113.000727220278 | -4.00072722027762 |
| 13 | 109 | 109.00026447592 | -0.000264475919735219 |
| 14 | 106 | 109.000000017484 | -3.0000000174837 |
| 15 | 101 | 106.000198320885 | -5.00019832088522 |
| 16 | 98 | 101.000330547917 | -3.00033054791714 |
| 17 | 93 | 98.0001983427356 | -5.00019834273557 |
| 18 | 91 | 93.0003305479186 | -2.00033054791859 |
| 19 | 122 | 91.0001322357742 | 30.9998677642258 |
| 20 | 139 | 121.99795069294 | 17.0020493070602 |
| 21 | 140 | 138.998876046184 | 1.00112395381643 |
| 22 | 132 | 139.999933818737 | -7.99993381873747 |
| 23 | 117 | 132.000528851316 | -15.0005288513158 |
| 24 | 114 | 117.000991639381 | -3.00099163938103 |
| 25 | 113 | 114.000198386438 | -1.00019838643833 |
| 26 | 110 | 113.000066120076 | -3.00006612007607 |
| 27 | 107 | 110.000198325255 | -3.00019832525506 |
| 28 | 103 | 107.000198333995 | -4.00019833399473 |
| 29 | 98 | 103.000264440957 | -5.00026444095667 |
| 30 | 98 | 98.0003305522881 | -0.000330552288147601 |
| 31 | 137 | 98.0000000218518 | 38.9999999781482 |
| 32 | 148 | 136.997421828509 | 11.0025781714913 |
| 33 | 147 | 147.99927265299 | -0.999272652990044 |
| 34 | 139 | 147.000066058879 | -8.00006605887864 |
| 35 | 130 | 139.000528860058 | -9.00052886005776 |
| 36 | 128 | 130.000594997613 | -2.00059499761349 |
| 37 | 127 | 128.000132253256 | -1.0001322532562 |
| 38 | 123 | 127.000066115704 | -4.00006611570421 |
| 39 | 118 | 123.000264432216 | -5.00026443221611 |
| 40 | 114 | 118.000330552288 | -4.00033055228756 |
| 41 | 108 | 114.000264449697 | -6.00026444969721 |
| 42 | 111 | 108.00039665925 | 2.99960334074993 |
| 43 | 151 | 110.999801705338 | 40.0001982946621 |
| 44 | 159 | 150.997355708437 | 8.00264429156275 |
| 45 | 158 | 158.999470969503 | -0.999470969503108 |
| 46 | 148 | 158.000066071989 | -10.0000660719888 |
| 47 | 138 | 148.000661073981 | -10.0006610739813 |
| 48 | 137 | 138.000661113315 | -1.00066111331512 |
| 49 | 136 | 137.000066150666 | -1.00006615066553 |
| 50 | 133 | 136.000066111334 | -3.00006611133438 |
| 51 | 126 | 133.000198325254 | -7.00019832525447 |
| 52 | 120 | 126.00046276184 | -6.00046276184014 |
| 53 | 114 | 120.00039667236 | -6.00039667235988 |
| 54 | 116 | 114.000396667991 | 1.99960333200909 |
| 55 | 153 | 115.9998678123 | 37.0001321877002 |
| 56 | 162 | 152.997554033691 | 9.00244596630856 |
| 57 | 161 | 161.999404875652 | -0.999404875652431 |
| 58 | 149 | 161.000066067619 | -12.0000660676195 |
| 59 | 139 | 149.000793287904 | -10.0007932879037 |
| 60 | 135 | 139.000661122055 | -4.00066112205536 |
| 61 | 130 | 135.00026447155 | -5.00026447155017 |
| 62 | 127 | 130.00033055229 | -3.00033055229017 |
| 63 | 122 | 127.000198342736 | -5.00019834273586 |
| 64 | 117 | 122.000330547919 | -5.00033054791859 |
| 65 | 112 | 117.000330556658 | -5.00033055665828 |
| 66 | 113 | 112.000330556659 | 0.999669443341148 |
| 67 | 149 | 112.999933914891 | 36.0000660851093 |
| 68 | 157 | 148.997620145023 | 8.00237985497736 |
| 69 | 157 | 156.999470986984 | 0.000529013015807323 |
| 70 | 147 | 156.999999965029 | -9.99999996502856 |
| 71 | 137 | 147.000661069611 | -10.0006610696112 |
| 72 | 132 | 137.000661113315 | -5.00066111331483 |
| 73 | 125 | 132.000330578511 | -7.00033057851095 |
| 74 | 123 | 125.000462770583 | -2.000462770583 |
| 75 | 117 | 123.000132244515 | -6.00013224451506 |
| 76 | 114 | 117.00039665051 | -3.0003966505104 |
| 77 | 111 | 114.000198347105 | -3.00019834710541 |
| 78 | 112 | 111.000198333996 | 0.999801666003819 |
| 79 | 144 | 111.99993390615 | 32.0000660938501 |
| 80 | 150 | 143.997884572867 | 6.00211542713254 |
| 81 | 149 | 149.999603218387 | -0.999603218387421 |
| 82 | 134 | 149.000066080731 | -15.0000660807313 |
| 83 | 123 | 134.000991608789 | -11.0009916087887 |
| 84 | 116 | 123.000727242127 | -7.00072724212711 |
| 85 | 117 | 116.000462796805 | 0.999537203194762 |
| 86 | 111 | 116.999933923633 | -5.99993392363274 |
| 87 | 105 | 111.0003966374 | -6.0003966374 |
| 88 | 102 | 105.000396667989 | -3.00039666798861 |
| 89 | 95 | 102.000198347107 | -7.00019834710658 |
| 90 | 93 | 95.0004627618416 | -2.00046276184159 |
| 91 | 124 | 93.0001322445145 | 30.9998677554855 |
| 92 | 130 | 123.99795069294 | 6.00204930705962 |
| 93 | 124 | 129.999603222758 | -5.99960322275842 |
| 94 | 115 | 124.000396615538 | -9.00039661553838 |
| 95 | 106 | 115.000594988871 | -9.00059498887121 |
| 96 | 105 | 106.000595001985 | -1.00059500198508 |
| 97 | 105 | 105.000066146295 | -6.61462951256908e-05 |
| 98 | 101 | 105.000000004373 | -4.00000000437274 |
| 99 | 95 | 101.000264427846 | -6.00026442784569 |
| 100 | 93 | 95.0003966592486 | -2.00039665924864 |
| 101 | 84 | 93.0001322401446 | -9.00013224014464 |
| 102 | 87 | 84.0005949713942 | 2.99940502860584 |
| 103 | 116 | 86.9998017184477 | 29.0001982815523 |
| 104 | 120 | 115.998082885013 | 4.00191711498699 |
| 105 | 117 | 119.99973544542 | -2.99973544541994 |
| 106 | 109 | 117.000198303395 | -8.00019830339515 |
| 107 | 105 | 109.0005288688 | -4.00052886880005 |
| 108 | 107 | 105.000264462807 | 1.99973553719268 |
| 109 | 109 | 106.99986780356 | 2.00013219643986 |
| 110 | 109 | 108.999867777338 | 0.000132222661804349 |
| 111 | 108 | 108.999999991259 | -0.999999991259159 |
| 112 | 107 | 108.000066106961 | -1.00006610696077 |
| 113 | 99 | 107.000066111331 | -8.00006611133148 |
| 114 | 103 | 99.0005288600612 | 3.99947113993876 |
| 115 | 131 | 102.999735607116 | 28.0002643928841 |
| 116 | 137 | 130.998148987604 | 6.00185101239606 |
| 117 | 135 | 136.999603235867 | -1.99960323586708 |
| 118 | 124 | 135.000132187694 | -11.0001321876938 |
| 119 | 118 | 124.000727185313 | -6.00072718531339 |
| 120 | 121 | 118.00039668984 | 2.99960331015988 |
| 121 | 121 | 120.99980170534 | 0.000198294660094689 |
| 122 | 118 | 120.999999986891 | -2.99999998689134 |
| 123 | 113 | 118.000198320883 | -5.00019832088319 |
| 124 | 107 | 113.000330547917 | -6.00033054791714 |
| 125 | 100 | 107.00039666362 | -7.00039666361963 |
| 126 | 102 | 100.000462774952 | 1.99953722504831 |
| 127 | 130 | 101.99986781667 | 28.0001321833301 |
| 128 | 136 | 129.998148996344 | 6.0018510036561 |
| 129 | 133 | 135.999603235868 | -2.99960323586765 |
| 130 | 120 | 133.000198294655 | -13.0001982946552 |
| 131 | 112 | 120.000859403606 | -8.00085940360623 |
| 132 | 109 | 112.000528912503 | -3.00052891250337 |
| 133 | 110 | 109.000198355849 | 0.999801644151148 |
| 134 | 106 | 109.999933906151 | -3.99993390615136 |
| 135 | 102 | 106.000264423476 | -4.00026442347614 |
| 136 | 98 | 102.000264445326 | -4.00026444532564 |
| 137 | 92 | 98.0002644453271 | -6.00026444532709 |
| 138 | 92 | 92.0003966592498 | -0.00039665924978749 |
| 139 | 120 | 92.0000000262219 | 27.9999999737781 |
| 140 | 127 | 119.998149005084 | 7.00185099491613 |
| 141 | 124 | 126.999537128907 | -2.99953712890689 |
| 142 | 114 | 124.000198290285 | -10.0001982902851 |
| 143 | 108 | 114.000661082722 | -6.00066108272189 |
| 144 | 106 | 108.00039668547 | -2.00039668547028 |
| 145 | 111 | 106.000132240146 | 4.99986775985363 |
| 146 | 110 | 110.999669473935 | -0.999669473935228 |
| 147 | 104 | 110.000066085111 | -6.00006608511127 |
| 148 | 100 | 104.000396646137 | -4.00039664613679 |
| 149 | 96 | 100.000264454066 | -4.00026445406648 |
| 150 | 98 | 96.0002644453277 | 1.99973555467234 |
| 151 | 122 | 97.999867803559 | 24.000132196441 |
| 152 | 134 | 121.998413424188 | 12.0015865758115 |
| 153 | 133 | 133.99920661158 | -0.999206611580064 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 154 | 133.000066054513 | 111.178362088122 | 154.821770020903 |
| 155 | 133.000066054513 | 102.140536382877 | 163.859595726148 |
| 156 | 133.000066054513 | 95.2054317910049 | 170.794700318021 |
| 157 | 133.000066054513 | 89.3588219536614 | 176.641310155364 |
| 158 | 133.000066054513 | 84.2078331252046 | 181.792298983821 |
| 159 | 133.000066054513 | 79.5509706291865 | 186.449161479839 |
| 160 | 133.000066054513 | 75.2685355937376 | 190.731596515288 |
| 161 | 133.000066054513 | 71.2825368030823 | 194.717595305943 |
| 162 | 133.000066054513 | 67.5388009853212 | 198.461331123704 |
| 163 | 133.000066054513 | 63.9978846975678 | 202.002247411458 |
| 164 | 133.000066054513 | 60.6300112004884 | 205.370120908537 |
| 165 | 133.000066054513 | 57.4120468508567 | 208.588085258169 |
