| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.771795888456868 |
| beta | 0.0241620152216082 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 7.52 | 8.38150641025641 | -0.861506410256409 |
| 14 | 7.38 | 7.57025991656781 | -0.190259916567806 |
| 15 | 7.52 | 7.51394737919331 | 0.00605262080669 |
| 16 | 7.31 | 7.25759425449473 | 0.0524057455052729 |
| 17 | 6.92 | 6.86799355074451 | 0.0520064492554937 |
| 18 | 7.09 | 7.03322116221199 | 0.0567788377880065 |
| 19 | 7.05 | 7.58652423680383 | -0.536524236803827 |
| 20 | 7.37 | 6.66524658992018 | 0.704753410079822 |
| 21 | 7.05 | 6.69470760374717 | 0.355292396252833 |
| 22 | 6.79 | 6.82066492102901 | -0.030664921029012 |
| 23 | 6.35 | 6.47317012384964 | -0.12317012384964 |
| 24 | 6.44 | 6.24156663059912 | 0.198433369400877 |
| 25 | 6.89 | 6.2002765002594 | 0.689723499740595 |
| 26 | 7.16 | 6.76247131702862 | 0.397528682971381 |
| 27 | 7.46 | 7.2385993328374 | 0.221400667162597 |
| 28 | 7.91 | 7.19703316052302 | 0.712966839476982 |
| 29 | 7.86 | 7.36748215251361 | 0.49251784748639 |
| 30 | 8.02 | 7.93232092901389 | 0.0876790709861126 |
| 31 | 8.38 | 8.4331919079006 | -0.0531919079005956 |
| 32 | 8.5 | 8.23633951105303 | 0.263660488946968 |
| 33 | 8.4 | 7.90551950067495 | 0.494480499325054 |
| 34 | 8.24 | 8.11332129566807 | 0.126678704331935 |
| 35 | 8.33 | 7.93158447930024 | 0.398415520699755 |
| 36 | 8.28 | 8.25108737095379 | 0.0289126290462125 |
| 37 | 8.15 | 8.26307250024262 | -0.113072500242618 |
| 38 | 8.06 | 8.19601819332098 | -0.136018193320982 |
| 39 | 7.79 | 8.26723971428451 | -0.477239714284511 |
| 40 | 7.28 | 7.83269077117782 | -0.552690771177822 |
| 41 | 7.52 | 6.9864484728296 | 0.533551527170399 |
| 42 | 7.23 | 7.50178161937309 | -0.271781619373094 |
| 43 | 7.13 | 7.69758232216604 | -0.567582322166038 |
| 44 | 7.21 | 7.17094745508613 | 0.0390525449138668 |
| 45 | 6.99 | 6.71017642794473 | 0.279823572055268 |
| 46 | 6.77 | 6.65509644946198 | 0.114903550538022 |
| 47 | 6.69 | 6.51278693406932 | 0.177213065930679 |
| 48 | 6.39 | 6.55962344378882 | -0.16962344378882 |
| 49 | 6.85 | 6.36465417107083 | 0.48534582892917 |
| 50 | 6.74 | 6.74405627285539 | -0.00405627285538923 |
| 51 | 6.56 | 6.83155405650913 | -0.271554056509129 |
| 52 | 6.62 | 6.5346666218235 | 0.0853333781764976 |
| 53 | 6.71 | 6.43676406835281 | 0.273235931647189 |
| 54 | 6.67 | 6.57058234170962 | 0.0994176582903838 |
| 55 | 6.54 | 6.99546833015358 | -0.455468330153583 |
| 56 | 6.14 | 6.70598801581533 | -0.565988015815333 |
| 57 | 6.13 | 5.83410009017726 | 0.295899909822737 |
| 58 | 5.86 | 5.75499811025026 | 0.105001889749739 |
| 59 | 5.88 | 5.6202869479283 | 0.259713052071696 |
| 60 | 5.75 | 5.65420668837501 | 0.0957933116249876 |
| 61 | 5.53 | 5.82106078523497 | -0.291060785234967 |
| 62 | 5.86 | 5.48258246831792 | 0.377417531682078 |
| 63 | 5.9 | 5.8036004359564 | 0.0963995640436019 |
| 64 | 5.95 | 5.87914728895989 | 0.0708527110401107 |
| 65 | 5.69 | 5.819684730087 | -0.129684730087 |
| 66 | 5.53 | 5.60208670486345 | -0.0720867048634455 |
| 67 | 5.71 | 5.76400308507249 | -0.0540030850724875 |
| 68 | 5.6 | 5.76266154937511 | -0.162661549375113 |
| 69 | 5.73 | 5.40977759039201 | 0.320222409607993 |
| 70 | 5.6 | 5.31736936203929 | 0.282630637960711 |
| 71 | 5.41 | 5.36985496638696 | 0.0401450336130393 |
| 72 | 5.13 | 5.20760922397573 | -0.0776092239757267 |
| 73 | 5 | 5.15981999564371 | -0.159819995643708 |
| 74 | 5.04 | 5.08509941237594 | -0.0450994123759436 |
| 75 | 5.1 | 5.0179290587842 | 0.0820709412157958 |
| 76 | 4.96 | 5.0783580151174 | -0.118358015117397 |
| 77 | 4.9 | 4.82534227069984 | 0.0746577293001565 |
| 78 | 4.8 | 4.78065197278939 | 0.0193480272106141 |
| 79 | 4.48 | 5.02102209886213 | -0.541022098862131 |
| 80 | 4.29 | 4.61368102091042 | -0.32368102091042 |
| 81 | 4.27 | 4.23839232487691 | 0.03160767512309 |
| 82 | 4.18 | 3.90094502932384 | 0.279054970676157 |
| 83 | 4.02 | 3.88155925197548 | 0.138440748024518 |
| 84 | 3.82 | 3.75636328021873 | 0.0636367197812668 |
| 85 | 4.13 | 3.78951777728333 | 0.34048222271667 |
| 86 | 4.16 | 4.12712932857775 | 0.0328706714222484 |
| 87 | 3.98 | 4.15063199065633 | -0.170631990656327 |
| 88 | 4.26 | 3.96704993861429 | 0.292950061385712 |
| 89 | 4.7 | 4.07995998259278 | 0.620040017407221 |
| 90 | 4.96 | 4.45817487789502 | 0.501825122104984 |
| 91 | 5.13 | 4.96664066471027 | 0.163359335289728 |
| 92 | 5.35 | 5.1892724049407 | 0.1607275950593 |
| 93 | 5.41 | 5.31469594569573 | 0.0953040543042665 |
| 94 | 5.42 | 5.12983488062167 | 0.290165119378326 |
| 95 | 5.51 | 5.13409944694611 | 0.375900553053893 |
| 96 | 5.75 | 5.22669589455412 | 0.523304105445883 |
| 97 | 5.67 | 5.7379615205411 | -0.0679615205410995 |
| 98 | 5.46 | 5.74268738019417 | -0.282687380194168 |
| 99 | 5.56 | 5.52286665011546 | 0.0371333498845354 |
| 100 | 5.56 | 5.65596596081596 | -0.0959659608159606 |
| 101 | 5.54 | 5.58664052556061 | -0.0466405255606146 |
| 102 | 5.53 | 5.45418967380981 | 0.0758103261901937 |
| 103 | 5.65 | 5.57952800336322 | 0.0704719966367771 |
| 104 | 5.58 | 5.75104522193799 | -0.171045221937987 |
| 105 | 5.57 | 5.62046711671997 | -0.0504671167199682 |
| 106 | 5.36 | 5.37983936671363 | -0.0198393667136321 |
| 107 | 5.23 | 5.1708987247302 | 0.0591012752697964 |
| 108 | 5.11 | 5.0532109714289 | 0.0567890285710995 |
| 109 | 5.07 | 5.06137537442107 | 0.00862462557893018 |
| 110 | 5.04 | 5.06951941432113 | -0.0295194143211317 |
| 111 | 5.34 | 5.1161088292242 | 0.223891170775804 |
| 112 | 5.43 | 5.36448767928963 | 0.0655123207103738 |
| 113 | 5.31 | 5.43557248617717 | -0.125572486177171 |
| 114 | 5.12 | 5.27319982627485 | -0.153199826274854 |
| 115 | 4.97 | 5.21935398537496 | -0.249353985374956 |
| 116 | 5 | 5.08173459514206 | -0.0817345951420583 |
| 117 | 4.64 | 5.04208695270103 | -0.402086952701028 |
| 118 | 4.8 | 4.5249972489746 | 0.275002751025398 |
| 119 | 5.1 | 4.55505479005605 | 0.544945209943946 |
| 120 | 5.11 | 4.81429748120362 | 0.295702518796376 |
| 121 | 5.12 | 5.00280406946534 | 0.117195930534661 |
| 122 | 5.36 | 5.09500407333781 | 0.264995926662187 |
| 123 | 5.26 | 5.44118642335649 | -0.181186423356489 |
| 124 | 5.27 | 5.34768927011923 | -0.0776892701192278 |
| 125 | 5.1 | 5.26887881863234 | -0.168878818632339 |
| 126 | 4.94 | 5.07020373330524 | -0.130203733305238 |
| 127 | 4.68 | 5.01601813892405 | -0.336018138924046 |
| 128 | 4.41 | 4.85200175067822 | -0.442001750678222 |
| 129 | 4.6 | 4.45671596526153 | 0.143284034738469 |
| 130 | 4.53 | 4.520746449859 | 0.00925355014099605 |
| 131 | 4.18 | 4.40803654823572 | -0.228036548235724 |
| 132 | 4 | 4.00013693342971 | -0.000136933429713437 |
| 133 | 3.87 | 3.90038309848731 | -0.0303830984873059 |
| 134 | 4.09 | 3.8904618934014 | 0.199538106598605 |
| 135 | 4.13 | 4.06113396546148 | 0.0688660345385159 |
| 136 | 3.74 | 4.16573820647755 | -0.425738206477547 |
| 137 | 3.81 | 3.77249817979079 | 0.037501820209211 |
| 138 | 4.11 | 3.72078424510128 | 0.389215754898721 |
| 139 | 4.14 | 4.00905460057487 | 0.130945399425126 |
| 140 | 3.99 | 4.17849867668749 | -0.188498676687495 |
| 141 | 4.28 | 4.1144033273371 | 0.165596672662903 |
| 142 | 4.37 | 4.16745757896239 | 0.20254242103761 |
| 143 | 4.24 | 4.15577040827694 | 0.0842295917230595 |
| 144 | 4.19 | 4.05270108063244 | 0.137298919367565 |
| 145 | 4.01 | 4.06649723127456 | -0.0564972312745642 |
| 146 | 3.95 | 4.1027830887892 | -0.152783088789195 |
| 147 | 4.3 | 3.97903794892205 | 0.320962051077953 |
| 148 | 4.37 | 4.1773620026298 | 0.192637997370205 |
| 149 | 4.4 | 4.39065089982883 | 0.00934910017116586 |
| 150 | 4.29 | 4.42050181508611 | -0.130501815086113 |
| 151 | 4.12 | 4.26205659932877 | -0.142056599328768 |
| 152 | 4.07 | 4.15614809255018 | -0.0861480925501805 |
| 153 | 3.93 | 4.26200885511471 | -0.332008855114709 |
| 154 | 3.79 | 3.94032129576789 | -0.150321295767887 |
| 155 | 3.67 | 3.62359254952029 | 0.0464074504797067 |
| 156 | 3.53 | 3.49703423915219 | 0.0329657608478113 |
| 157 | 3.69 | 3.37772714049208 | 0.312272859507924 |
| 158 | 3.69 | 3.67517801889859 | 0.0148219811014068 |
| 159 | 3.48 | 3.79054850468645 | -0.310548504686454 |
| 160 | 3.31 | 3.4620628645753 | -0.152062864575299 |
| 161 | 3.16 | 3.35092937582724 | -0.190929375827237 |
| 162 | 3.25 | 3.17400041302727 | 0.0759995869727295 |
| 163 | 3.14 | 3.15585492907966 | -0.0158549290796626 |
| 164 | 3.19 | 3.14601997856561 | 0.0439800214343933 |
| 165 | 3.43 | 3.28454637033316 | 0.145453629666842 |
| 166 | 3.45 | 3.37006775360689 | 0.0799322463931142 |
| 167 | 3.31 | 3.27747936638063 | 0.0325206336193737 |
| 168 | 3.51 | 3.13841416878171 | 0.371585831218285 |
| 169 | 3.53 | 3.35178466208097 | 0.178215337919026 |
| 170 | 3.83 | 3.4829840447075 | 0.347015955292504 |
| 171 | 4.02 | 3.7917774540164 | 0.2282225459836 |
| 172 | 3.99 | 3.93661511316622 | 0.0533848868337765 |
| 173 | 4.11 | 4.00034201867345 | 0.109657981326548 |
| 174 | 3.96 | 4.14709098746412 | -0.187090987464123 |
| 175 | 3.83 | 3.93079710914535 | -0.100797109145348 |
| 176 | 3.71 | 3.89334010851328 | -0.18334010851328 |
| 177 | 3.81 | 3.89962074820899 | -0.0896207482089877 |
| 178 | 3.73 | 3.80441903822254 | -0.0744190382225414 |
| 179 | 3.99 | 3.59466366832218 | 0.395336331677819 |
| 180 | 4.17 | 3.83254027545042 | 0.33745972454958 |
| 181 | 4 | 3.99435411828501 | 0.00564588171498936 |
| 182 | 4.1 | 4.04657767895883 | 0.0534223210411735 |
| 183 | 4.24 | 4.11188418757965 | 0.128115812420347 |
| 184 | 4.45 | 4.14791100743733 | 0.302088992562672 |
| 185 | 4.62 | 4.42941613944858 | 0.190583860551418 |
| 186 | 4.49 | 4.58540082049767 | -0.0954008204976713 |
| 187 | 4.45 | 4.47577229150342 | -0.0257722915034186 |
| 188 | 4.49 | 4.49498819604262 | -0.00498819604262302 |
| 189 | 4.36 | 4.6812388951994 | -0.321238895199401 |
| 190 | 4.32 | 4.4273567392011 | -0.107356739201097 |
| 191 | 4.45 | 4.3153784617559 | 0.134621538244097 |
| 192 | 4.13 | 4.34996510434604 | -0.219965104346041 |
| 193 | 4.14 | 4.00658085523506 | 0.133419144764938 |
| 194 | 4.3 | 4.17144619140562 | 0.128553808594377 |
| 195 | 4.42 | 4.31630941438204 | 0.103690585617958 |
| 196 | 4.67 | 4.3772560338091 | 0.292743966190899 |
| 197 | 4.96 | 4.62999821009184 | 0.330001789908157 |
| 198 | 4.73 | 4.83481750815126 | -0.104817508151257 |
| 199 | 4.52 | 4.74013044360224 | -0.220130443602237 |
| 200 | 4.36 | 4.61677983135546 | -0.256779831355461 |
| 201 | 4.15 | 4.53452891498256 | -0.384528914982561 |
| 202 | 3.92 | 4.27742817109536 | -0.357428171095365 |
| 203 | 3.88 | 4.01982246221288 | -0.139822462212885 |
| 204 | 4.2 | 3.74871458636164 | 0.451285413638356 |
| 205 | 3.95 | 4.00359840454031 | -0.0535984045403088 |
| 206 | 3.78 | 4.01908248396179 | -0.239082483961793 |
| 207 | 3.69 | 3.86374431225355 | -0.17374431225355 |
| 208 | 3.77 | 3.73774960507647 | 0.0322503949235338 |
| 209 | 3.66 | 3.77712760915537 | -0.117127609155365 |
| 210 | 3.53 | 3.50846989690169 | 0.0215301030983124 |
| 211 | 3.5 | 3.45818183478444 | 0.041818165215556 |
| 212 | 3.14 | 3.50672271775556 | -0.366722717755557 |
| 213 | 3.42 | 3.28649941370266 | 0.133500586297345 |
| 214 | 3.3 | 3.42109044506047 | -0.12109044506047 |
| 215 | 2.81 | 3.38564923370697 | -0.575649233706972 |
| 216 | 3.15 | 2.89503942960171 | 0.25496057039829 |
| 217 | 3.37 | 2.86149701828708 | 0.508502981712923 |
| 218 | 4.05 | 3.25727559504241 | 0.792724404957586 |
| 219 | 4 | 3.92122864883542 | 0.0787713511645847 |
| 220 | 4.2 | 4.04987875157151 | 0.15012124842849 |
| 221 | 4.21 | 4.16108381368183 | 0.0489161863181673 |
| 222 | 4.24 | 4.07026018135327 | 0.169739818646734 |
| 223 | 4.24 | 4.15979332487593 | 0.0802066751240655 |
| 224 | 4.17 | 4.16625120455174 | 0.00374879544826179 |
| 225 | 4.12 | 4.37453752380321 | -0.254537523803212 |
| 226 | 4.35 | 4.17273564449516 | 0.177264355504835 |
| 227 | 3.98 | 4.29058704768981 | -0.310587047689807 |
| 228 | 3.62 | 4.2257984298156 | -0.605798429815599 |
| 229 | 4.39 | 3.60143233259949 | 0.788567667400514 |
| 230 | 5.01 | 4.29909401693621 | 0.710905983063792 |
| 231 | 4.07 | 4.75631700236615 | -0.686317002366149 |
| 232 | 3.7 | 4.31583399724064 | -0.615833997240641 |
| 233 | 3.59 | 3.80357549278233 | -0.21357549278233 |
| 234 | 3.44 | 3.52363228287019 | -0.0836322828701936 |
| 235 | 3.33 | 3.37835510071664 | -0.0483551007166421 |
| 236 | 2.98 | 3.24691714137006 | -0.266917141370061 |
| 237 | 3.14 | 3.16109079955037 | -0.0210907995503744 |
| 238 | 2.55 | 3.21608265067495 | -0.666082650674945 |
| 239 | 2.49 | 2.53406729375961 | -0.0440672937596109 |
| 240 | 2.53 | 2.57493386157035 | -0.0449338615703518 |
| 241 | 2.43 | 2.67942467830851 | -0.249424678308513 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 242 | 2.51667266138396 | 1.96721960945553 | 3.06612571331239 |
| 243 | 2.05153946392375 | 1.35116422834848 | 2.75191469949903 |
| 244 | 2.11480631119471 | 1.28525376116903 | 2.94435886122039 |
| 245 | 2.13909585969157 | 1.19304907611945 | 3.0851426432637 |
| 246 | 2.02707855959068 | 0.972907466523199 | 3.08124965265816 |
| 247 | 1.92939406220175 | 0.77302736603542 | 3.08576075836807 |
| 248 | 1.7612965820434 | 0.507129042664965 | 3.01546412142183 |
| 249 | 1.91844885128386 | 0.56984086212035 | 3.26705684044738 |
| 250 | 1.82379648357765 | 0.383374398454442 | 3.26421856870085 |
| 251 | 1.79149642603608 | 0.261345121769597 | 3.32164773030256 |
| 252 | 1.86068695520784 | 0.242479560328674 | 3.47889435008701 |
| 253 | 1.94854058908656 | 0.243629379526644 | 3.65345179864648 |
