Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.039686617033814 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 3.08 | 3.08 | 4.44089209850063e-16 |
4 | 3.07 | 3.09 | -0.02 |
5 | 3.08 | 3.07920626765932 | 0.000793732340676812 |
6 | 3.06 | 3.08923776821076 | -0.0292377682107552 |
7 | 3.07 | 3.06807742010085 | 0.00192257989914824 |
8 | 3.04 | 3.07815372079303 | -0.038153720793026 |
9 | 3.05 | 3.0466395286875 | 0.00336047131250172 |
10 | 3.06 | 3.05677289442553 | 0.00322710557446992 |
11 | 3.05 | 3.06690096732859 | -0.0169009673285925 |
12 | 3.06 | 3.05623022511072 | 0.0037697748892791 |
13 | 3.07 | 3.06637983472306 | 0.00362016527694387 |
14 | 3.07 | 3.076523506836 | -0.00652350683600122 |
15 | 3.1 | 3.07626461091848 | 0.0237353890815171 |
16 | 3.1 | 3.10720658821511 | -0.00720658821511 |
17 | 3.1 | 3.1069205831085 | -0.00692058310849664 |
18 | 3.1 | 3.10664592857702 | -0.00664592857701907 |
19 | 3.09 | 3.10638217415475 | -0.016382174154749 |
20 | 3.08 | 3.09573202108289 | -0.0157320210828877 |
21 | 3.1 | 3.085107670387 | 0.0148923296129966 |
22 | 3.08 | 3.1056986965691 | -0.025698696569096 |
23 | 3.08 | 3.08467880224009 | -0.00467880224008965 |
24 | 3.09 | 3.08449311640741 | 0.00550688359258933 |
25 | 3.11 | 3.0947116659876 | 0.0152883340124008 |
26 | 3.19 | 3.11531840824463 | 0.0746815917553656 |
27 | 3.24 | 3.19828226797611 | 0.0417177320238951 |
28 | 3.25 | 3.24993790363046 | 6.20963695427967e-05 |
29 | 3.22 | 3.25994036802529 | -0.0399403680252939 |
30 | 3.21 | 3.22835526993528 | -0.0183552699352849 |
31 | 3.21 | 3.21762681136681 | -0.00762681136681076 |
32 | 3.19 | 3.21732412902491 | -0.0273241290249069 |
33 | 3.21 | 3.19623972678051 | 0.013760273219487 |
34 | 3.21 | 3.21678582547406 | -0.0067858254740556 |
35 | 3.19 | 3.21651651901721 | -0.0265165190172083 |
36 | 3.18 | 3.1954641680819 | -0.0154641680819023 |
37 | 3.16 | 3.18485044756549 | -0.0248504475654894 |
38 | 3.15 | 3.16386421736984 | -0.0138642173698393 |
39 | 3.15 | 3.15331399348461 | -0.0033139934846087 |
40 | 3.14 | 3.15318247229433 | -0.0131824722943321 |
41 | 3.14 | 3.14265930456483 | -0.00265930456482844 |
42 | 3.12 | 3.14255376576299 | -0.022553765762988 |
43 | 3.12 | 3.12165868309848 | -0.00165868309848172 |
44 | 3.12 | 3.12159285557757 | -0.00159285557757194 |
45 | 3.12 | 3.12152964052827 | -0.00152964052827453 |
46 | 3.13 | 3.12146893427043 | 0.0085310657295703 |
47 | 3.14 | 3.13180750340893 | 0.00819249659107069 |
48 | 3.14 | 3.14213263588369 | -0.00213263588369017 |
49 | 3.16 | 3.1420479987801 | 0.0179520012198986 |
50 | 3.19 | 3.16276045297751 | 0.0272395470224938 |
51 | 3.18 | 3.19384149844836 | -0.0138414984483624 |
52 | 3.18 | 3.18329217620027 | -0.00329217620026823 |
53 | 3.19 | 3.1831615208642 | 0.0068384791357996 |
54 | 3.18 | 3.19343291696676 | -0.0134329169667562 |
55 | 3.17 | 3.18289980993545 | -0.0128998099354498 |
56 | 3.17 | 3.17238786011873 | -0.00238786011873238 |
57 | 3.16 | 3.17229309402867 | -0.0122930940286698 |
58 | 3.15 | 3.16180522271379 | -0.0118052227137939 |
59 | 3.14 | 3.15133671336095 | -0.0113367133609521 |
60 | 3.15 | 3.14088679755937 | 0.00911320244062575 |
61 | 3.15 | 3.15124846973459 | -0.0012484697345867 |
62 | 3.16 | 3.15119892219435 | 0.00880107780564821 |
63 | 3.18 | 3.16154820719871 | 0.0184517928012906 |
64 | 3.18 | 3.1822804964332 | -0.0022804964332015 |
65 | 3.19 | 3.18218999124461 | 0.0078100087553894 |
66 | 3.18 | 3.19249994407112 | -0.012499944071116 |
67 | 3.19 | 3.18200386357782 | 0.00799613642217833 |
68 | 3.2 | 3.19232120318176 | 0.00767879681824146 |
69 | 3.2 | 3.20262594865036 | -0.00262594865036458 |
70 | 3.18 | 3.20252173363193 | -0.0225217336319274 |
71 | 3.2 | 3.18162792221434 | 0.0183720777856604 |
72 | 3.21 | 3.20235704782953 | 0.00764295217046529 |
73 | 3.24 | 3.21266037074533 | 0.0273396292546688 |
74 | 3.29 | 3.24374538814141 | 0.046254611858592 |
75 | 3.28 | 3.29558107720829 | -0.0155810772082878 |
76 | 3.27 | 3.28496271696415 | -0.0149627169641477 |
77 | 3.29 | 3.27436889734621 | 0.0156311026537934 |
78 | 3.27 | 3.29498924293104 | -0.0249892429310439 |
79 | 3.27 | 3.27399750441687 | -0.00399750441687452 |
80 | 3.25 | 3.27383885698999 | -0.023838856989991 |
81 | 3.25 | 3.25289277340211 | -0.00289277340210559 |
82 | 3.23 | 3.25277796901193 | -0.0227779690119303 |
83 | 3.23 | 3.23187398847895 | -0.00187398847894604 |
84 | 3.25 | 3.23179961621586 | 0.0182003837841438 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 3.25252192787697 | 3.21643664750747 | 3.28860720824646 |
86 | 3.25504385575393 | 3.20298906258441 | 3.30709864892345 |
87 | 3.2575657836309 | 3.19255221632351 | 3.32257935093828 |
88 | 3.26008771150786 | 3.18355381952544 | 3.33662160349028 |
89 | 3.26260963938483 | 3.17539827893186 | 3.3498209998378 |
90 | 3.2651315672618 | 3.16778671593119 | 3.3624764185924 |
91 | 3.26765349513876 | 3.16054544444305 | 3.37476154583448 |
92 | 3.27017542301573 | 3.15356381742634 | 3.38678702860512 |
93 | 3.27269735089269 | 3.14676674293825 | 3.39862795884714 |
94 | 3.27521927876966 | 3.14010084647761 | 3.41033771106171 |
95 | 3.27774120664663 | 3.13352682951906 | 3.42195558377419 |
96 | 3.28026313452359 | 3.12701494584989 | 3.43351132319729 |