Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.158806071446012 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 9081 | 9700 | -619 |
3 | 9084 | 9601.69904177492 | -517.699041774918 |
4 | 9743 | 9519.48529075928 | 223.514709240721 |
5 | 8587 | 9554.9807836442 | -967.980783644196 |
6 | 9731 | 9401.25955815843 | 329.740441841572 |
7 | 9563 | 9453.62434232416 | 109.375657675839 |
8 | 9998 | 9470.99386083148 | 527.006139168516 |
9 | 9437 | 9554.68563542077 | -117.685635420767 |
10 | 10038 | 9535.99644199397 | 502.003558006032 |
11 | 9918 | 9615.71765489283 | 302.282345107174 |
12 | 9252 | 9663.72192658678 | -411.721926586784 |
13 | 9737 | 9598.33798489735 | 138.662015102645 |
14 | 9035 | 9620.35835477459 | -585.358354774593 |
15 | 9133 | 9527.39989406474 | -394.39989406474 |
16 | 9487 | 9464.7667963096 | 22.2332036904045 |
17 | 8700 | 9468.29756404333 | -768.297564043327 |
18 | 9627 | 9346.28724619607 | 280.712753803935 |
19 | 8947 | 9390.86613583246 | -443.866135832459 |
20 | 9283 | 9320.37749855298 | -37.3774985529835 |
21 | 8829 | 9314.44172484731 | -485.441724847306 |
22 | 9947 | 9237.35063160833 | 709.649368391671 |
23 | 9628 | 9350.04725990675 | 277.952740093246 |
24 | 9318 | 9394.18784260862 | -76.1878426086168 |
25 | 9605 | 9382.088750632 | 222.911249368004 |
26 | 8640 | 9417.48841042525 | -777.488410425251 |
27 | 9214 | 9294.01853037081 | -80.0185303708113 |
28 | 9567 | 9281.31110191974 | 285.688898080261 |
29 | 8547 | 9326.6802334796 | -779.680233479605 |
30 | 9185 | 9202.8622786166 | -17.8622786165997 |
31 | 9470 | 9200.02564032242 | 269.974359677577 |
32 | 9123 | 9242.89920777397 | -119.899207773971 |
33 | 9278 | 9223.8584856179 | 54.1415143821014 |
34 | 10170 | 9232.45648681906 | 937.543513180943 |
35 | 9434 | 9381.34408895702 | 52.6559110429844 |
36 | 9655 | 9389.70616732816 | 265.293832671838 |
37 | 9429 | 9431.83643867363 | -2.83643867363207 |
38 | 8739 | 9431.38599499097 | -692.385994990975 |
39 | 9552 | 9321.43089520222 | 230.56910479778 |
40 | 9687 | 9358.04666893198 | 328.95333106802 |
41 | 9019 | 9410.28645512797 | -391.286455127971 |
42 | 9672 | 9348.14779037906 | 323.852209620938 |
43 | 9206 | 9399.57748751807 | -193.577487518074 |
44 | 9069 | 9368.83620720494 | -299.836207204939 |
45 | 9788 | 9321.22039706145 | 466.77960293855 |
46 | 10312 | 9395.34783203525 | 916.65216796475 |
47 | 10105 | 9540.9177617122 | 564.082238287798 |
48 | 9863 | 9630.49744594716 | 232.502554052839 |
49 | 9656 | 9667.42026315746 | -11.4202631574572 |
50 | 9295 | 9665.60665603054 | -370.606656030543 |
51 | 9946 | 9606.75206893459 | 339.247931065411 |
52 | 9701 | 9660.62670011327 | 40.3732998867254 |
53 | 9049 | 9667.0382252596 | -618.038225259597 |
54 | 10190 | 9568.89000270266 | 621.109997297344 |
55 | 9706 | 9667.52604130929 | 38.4739586907108 |
56 | 9765 | 9673.63593954194 | 91.3640604580632 |
57 | 9893 | 9688.14510705464 | 204.854892945363 |
58 | 9994 | 9720.67730781978 | 273.322692180216 |
59 | 10433 | 9764.08261080197 | 668.917389198028 |
60 | 10073 | 9870.31075350243 | 202.689246497566 |
61 | 10112 | 9902.49903646306 | 209.500963536935 |
62 | 9266 | 9935.76906144652 | -669.769061446519 |
63 | 9820 | 9829.40566802211 | -9.4056680221147 |
64 | 10097 | 9827.9119908342 | 269.088009165802 |
65 | 9115 | 9870.64480044305 | -755.644800443048 |
66 | 10411 | 9750.64381827608 | 660.356181723919 |
67 | 9678 | 9855.51238925075 | -177.512389250745 |
68 | 10408 | 9827.32234408084 | 580.67765591916 |
69 | 10153 | 9919.53748139384 | 233.462518606158 |
70 | 10368 | 9956.61274680358 | 411.387253196423 |
71 | 10581 | 10021.9435403267 | 559.056459673333 |
72 | 10597 | 10110.7251004039 | 486.274899596096 |
73 | 10680 | 10187.9485068516 | 492.051493148436 |
74 | 9738 | 10266.0892714276 | -528.089271427612 |
75 | 9556 | 10182.2254888594 | -626.225488859407 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
76 | 10082.7770791343 | 9200.11000863413 | 10965.4441496344 |
77 | 10082.7770791343 | 9189.0491583456 | 10976.504999923 |
78 | 10082.7770791343 | 9178.12353470458 | 10987.430623564 |
79 | 10082.7770791343 | 9167.32829602232 | 10998.2258622463 |
80 | 10082.7770791343 | 9156.6588828153 | 11008.8952754533 |
81 | 10082.7770791343 | 9146.1109953002 | 11019.4431629684 |
82 | 10082.7770791343 | 9135.68057314504 | 11029.8735851235 |
83 | 10082.7770791343 | 9125.36377720612 | 11040.1903810625 |
84 | 10082.7770791343 | 9115.15697301777 | 11050.3971852508 |
85 | 10082.7770791343 | 9105.05671583356 | 11060.497442435 |
86 | 10082.7770791343 | 9095.05973704453 | 11070.494421224 |
87 | 10082.7770791343 | 9085.16293182241 | 11080.3912264462 |