| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.221379685463394 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 250.58 | 236.422 | 14.158 |
| 3 | 279.515 | 239.556293586791 | 39.9587064132093 |
| 4 | 264.417 | 248.402339444071 | 16.0146605559289 |
| 5 | 283.706 | 251.947659960746 | 31.7583400392543 |
| 6 | 281.288 | 258.978311289475 | 22.3096887105247 |
| 7 | 271.146 | 263.917223158998 | 7.22877684100251 |
| 8 | 283.944 | 265.517527502344 | 18.4264724976563 |
| 9 | 269.155 | 269.596774188075 | -0.44177418807476 |
| 10 | 270.899 | 269.498974357273 | 1.40002564272709 |
| 11 | 276.507 | 269.808911593701 | 6.69808840629946 |
| 12 | 319.957 | 271.291732298293 | 48.6652677017069 |
| 13 | 250.746 | 282.065233955089 | -31.3192339550889 |
| 14 | 247.772 | 275.131791793157 | -27.3597917931569 |
| 15 | 280.449 | 269.074889691644 | 11.3741103083561 |
| 16 | 274.925 | 271.592886654134 | 3.33211334586633 |
| 17 | 296.013 | 272.33054885857 | 23.68245114143 |
| 18 | 287.881 | 277.573362443262 | 10.307637556738 |
| 19 | 279.098 | 279.855264003443 | -0.757264003443254 |
| 20 | 294.763 | 279.687621136548 | 15.0753788634517 |
| 21 | 261.924 | 283.025003767581 | -21.1010037675807 |
| 22 | 291.596 | 278.353670190552 | 13.2423298094482 |
| 23 | 287.537 | 281.28525299857 | 6.25174700143003 |
| 24 | 326.201 | 282.669262783343 | 43.5317372166568 |
| 25 | 255.598 | 292.306305076042 | -36.7083050760418 |
| 26 | 253.086 | 284.179832044413 | -31.0938320444134 |
| 27 | 285.261 | 277.29628928657 | 7.96471071343046 |
| 28 | 284.747 | 279.059514439116 | 5.68748556088428 |
| 29 | 300.402 | 280.318608203662 | 20.0833917963381 |
| 30 | 288.854 | 284.764663162573 | 4.08933683742669 |
| 31 | 295.433 | 285.669959265397 | 9.76304073460329 |
| 32 | 307.256 | 287.831298152389 | 19.4247018476105 |
| 33 | 273.189 | 292.131532537634 | -18.9425325376337 |
| 34 | 287.54 | 287.938040642572 | -0.398040642572198 |
| 35 | 290.705 | 287.849922530318 | 2.85507746968204 |
| 36 | 337.006 | 288.48197868253 | 48.5240213174702 |
| 37 | 268.335 | 299.22421125921 | -30.8892112592104 |
| 38 | 259.06 | 292.385967386434 | -33.325967386434 |
| 39 | 293.703 | 285.008275208662 | 8.69472479133805 |
| 40 | 294.262 | 286.933110648159 | 7.32888935184087 |
| 41 | 312.404 | 288.555577867666 | 23.8484221323343 |
| 42 | 301.014 | 293.83513405812 | 7.17886594187991 |
| 43 | 309.942 | 295.424389142317 | 14.5176108576827 |
| 44 | 317.079 | 298.638293267671 | 18.4407067323289 |
| 45 | 293.912 | 302.720691123797 | -8.80869112379679 |
| 46 | 304.06 | 300.770625853466 | 3.28937414653353 |
| 47 | 301.299 | 301.498826467397 | -0.199826467397486 |
| 48 | 357.634 | 301.454588946898 | 56.1794110531023 |
| 49 | 281.493 | 313.891569295352 | -32.3985692953523 |
| 50 | 282.478 | 306.719184215283 | -24.2411842152832 |
| 51 | 319.111 | 301.352678478444 | 17.7583215215564 |
| 52 | 315.223 | 305.284010111244 | 9.93898988875645 |
| 53 | 328.445 | 307.48430056664 | 20.9606994333597 |
| 54 | 321.081 | 312.12457361429 | 8.95642638570979 |
| 55 | 328.04 | 314.107344470435 | 13.9326555295653 |
| 56 | 326.362 | 317.19175136924 | 9.17024863076034 |
| 57 | 313.566 | 319.221858126739 | -5.65585812673856 |
| 58 | 319.768 | 317.969766033616 | 1.79823396638437 |
| 59 | 324.315 | 318.367858503483 | 5.94714149651662 |
| 60 | 387.243 | 319.684434817389 | 67.5585651826115 |
| 61 | 293.308 | 334.640528727873 | -41.3325287278733 |
| 62 | 295.109 | 325.49034651869 | -30.38134651869 |
| 63 | 339.19 | 318.764533582428 | 20.425466417572 |
| 64 | 335.678 | 323.286316913393 | 12.3916830866068 |
| 65 | 345.401 | 326.029583817468 | 19.3714161825317 |
| 66 | 351.002 | 330.318021838938 | 20.6839781610623 |
| 67 | 351.889 | 334.897034418365 | 16.9919655816346 |
| 68 | 355.773 | 338.658710414232 | 17.1142895857676 |
| 69 | 333.363 | 342.447466459659 | -9.08446645965915 |
| 70 | 336.214 | 340.436350132217 | -4.22235013221706 |
| 71 | 343.91 | 339.501607588031 | 4.40839241196949 |
| 72 | 405.788 | 340.477536113592 | 65.3104638864085 |
| 73 | 318.682 | 354.935946066233 | -36.253946066233 |
| 74 | 314.189 | 346.910058889284 | -32.7210588892835 |
| 75 | 362.141 | 339.666281164345 | 22.4747188356553 |
| 76 | 351.811 | 344.64172735106 | 7.16927264893963 |
| 77 | 373.727 | 346.228858675084 | 27.498141324916 |
| 78 | 366.795 | 352.316388552422 | 14.4786114475782 |
| 79 | 362.393 | 355.521659000633 | 6.87134099936662 |
| 80 | 376.006 | 357.042834309785 | 18.9631656902151 |
| 81 | 346.423 | 361.240893965675 | -14.8178939656749 |
| 82 | 349.007 | 357.960513260324 | -8.95351326032386 |
| 83 | 357.224 | 355.978387310961 | 1.24561268903892 |
| 84 | 418.473 | 356.25414065627 | 62.2188593437303 |
| 85 | 329.169 | 370.028132167676 | -40.8591321676759 |
| 86 | 323.456 | 360.982750340089 | -37.5267503400885 |
| 87 | 374.439 | 352.675090153336 | 21.7639098466636 |
| 88 | 358.806 | 357.493177669644 | 1.31282233035552 |
| 89 | 391.816 | 357.783809864208 | 34.0321901357921 |
| 90 | 376.944 | 365.3178454121 | 11.6261545879 |
| 91 | 372.665 | 367.891639857918 | 4.77336014208191 |
| 92 | 388.357 | 368.948364824776 | 19.4086351752243 |
| 93 | 354.241 | 373.245042375141 | -19.0040423751406 |
| 94 | 368.982 | 369.037933451599 | -0.0559334515989462 |
| 95 | 378.233 | 369.025550921677 | 9.2074490783229 |
| 96 | 426.699 | 371.063893102556 | 55.6351068974436 |
| 97 | 343.241 | 383.380375568235 | -40.1393755682348 |
| 98 | 344.577 | 374.494333230242 | -29.9173332302419 |
| 99 | 373.623 | 367.871243409827 | 5.75175659017259 |
| 100 | 369.688 | 369.144565474622 | 0.543434525378188 |
| 101 | 398.816 | 369.26487083892 | 29.55112916108 |
| 102 | 379.387 | 375.806890517688 | 3.58010948231197 |
| 103 | 384.666 | 376.599454028807 | 8.06654597119325 |
| 104 | 383.879 | 378.385223438686 | 5.49377656131452 |
| 105 | 351.578 | 379.601433965835 | -28.0234339658355 |
| 106 | 350.92 | 373.397614968875 | -22.4776149688746 |
| 107 | 336.629 | 368.421527637098 | -31.7925276370979 |
| 108 | 385.504 | 361.383307868711 | 24.1206921312891 |
| 109 | 311.33 | 366.723139105895 | -55.3931391058951 |
| 110 | 300.545 | 354.460223393802 | -53.915223393802 |
| 111 | 329.718 | 342.524488197193 | -12.8064881971935 |
| 112 | 331.023 | 339.689391868208 | -8.66639186820811 |
| 113 | 348.944 | 337.770828762322 | 11.1731712376783 |
| 114 | 345.65 | 340.244341896548 | 5.40565810345242 |
| 115 | 349.26 | 341.441044787212 | 7.8189552127875 |
| 116 | 354.597 | 343.172002632872 | 11.4249973671282 |
| 117 | 325.769 | 345.701264956427 | -19.9322649564267 |
| 118 | 339.734 | 341.2886664098 | -1.55466640979995 |
| 119 | 340.543 | 340.944494848998 | -0.401494848997913 |
| 120 | 401.585 | 340.855612045612 | 60.7293879543884 |
| 121 | 315.998 | 354.299864849339 | -38.3018648493385 |
| 122 | 312.327 | 345.820610056331 | -33.4936100563305 |
| 123 | 362.217 | 338.405805197026 | 23.8111948029735 |
| 124 | 358.067 | 343.677120013016 | 14.3898799869837 |
| 125 | 367.321 | 346.862747118391 | 20.4582528816093 |
| 126 | 360.372 | 351.391788706452 | 8.980211293548 |
| 127 | 363.83 | 353.379825058012 | 10.4501749419875 |
| 128 | 364.525 | 355.693281499707 | 8.83171850029282 |
| 129 | 347.945 | 357.648444563403 | -9.70344456340325 |
| 130 | 357.404 | 355.500299058046 | 1.90370094195447 |
| 131 | 368.182 | 355.921739773792 | 12.2602602262082 |
| 132 | 429.343 | 358.635912326369 | 70.7070876736309 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 133 | 374.28902515559 | 325.232927478684 | 423.345122832497 |
| 134 | 374.28902515559 | 324.045211316102 | 424.532838995078 |
| 135 | 374.28902515559 | 322.884930581441 | 425.693119729739 |
| 136 | 374.28902515559 | 321.750267568081 | 426.827782743099 |
| 137 | 374.28902515559 | 320.639596839065 | 427.938453472115 |
| 138 | 374.28902515559 | 319.551457904744 | 429.026592406436 |
| 139 | 374.28902515559 | 318.484532698514 | 430.093517612666 |
| 140 | 374.28902515559 | 317.437626859305 | 431.140423451875 |
| 141 | 374.28902515559 | 316.409654062827 | 432.168396248353 |
| 142 | 374.28902515559 | 315.39962281574 | 433.17842749544 |
| 143 | 374.28902515559 | 314.406625255489 | 434.171425055691 |
| 144 | 374.28902515559 | 313.429827595594 | 435.148222715586 |
