| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.677741059082967 |
| beta | 0.00622648790347763 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | -14 | -7.54193376068376 | -6.45806623931624 |
| 14 | -18 | -16.4561355549609 | -1.54386444503908 |
| 15 | -8 | -8.00462937934129 | 0.0046293793412886 |
| 16 | -1 | -1.37862582346949 | 0.37862582346949 |
| 17 | 1 | 0.460781592593208 | 0.539218407406792 |
| 18 | 2 | 1.16130466940879 | 0.838695330591211 |
| 19 | 0 | -7.30666519725573 | 7.30666519725573 |
| 20 | 1 | -0.568525913433465 | 1.56852591343347 |
| 21 | 0 | 3.07892653712026 | -3.07892653712026 |
| 22 | -1 | 1.8136167365152 | -2.8136167365152 |
| 23 | -3 | -3.95042169762604 | 0.950421697626036 |
| 24 | -3 | -7.53440600826121 | 4.53440600826121 |
| 25 | -3 | -16.9180782989989 | 13.9180782989989 |
| 26 | -4 | -10.343501995105 | 6.34350199510497 |
| 27 | -8 | 4.08127936241532 | -12.0812793624153 |
| 28 | -9 | 2.71435525481353 | -11.7143552548135 |
| 29 | -13 | -3.56376124066696 | -9.43623875933304 |
| 30 | -18 | -9.54296835249328 | -8.45703164750672 |
| 31 | -11 | -22.2813628174214 | 11.2813628174214 |
| 32 | -9 | -14.7364913063736 | 5.73649130637356 |
| 33 | -10 | -9.78224894882889 | -0.217751051171113 |
| 34 | -13 | -9.03117845047518 | -3.96882154952482 |
| 35 | -11 | -14.3782807416689 | 3.37828074166893 |
| 36 | -5 | -15.1647180319746 | 10.1647180319746 |
| 37 | -15 | -17.6876485066078 | 2.68764850660784 |
| 38 | -6 | -21.1918864468584 | 15.1918864468584 |
| 39 | -6 | -6.69691838278867 | 0.696918382788672 |
| 40 | -3 | 0.77945845180429 | -3.77945845180429 |
| 41 | -1 | 0.711522663344319 | -1.71152266334432 |
| 42 | -3 | 0.414060889939686 | -3.41406088993969 |
| 43 | -4 | -2.39352024671607 | -1.60647975328393 |
| 44 | -6 | -5.27242834528687 | -0.727571654713135 |
| 45 | 0 | -6.54750781676436 | 6.54750781676436 |
| 46 | -4 | -2.32116369955842 | -1.67883630044158 |
| 47 | -2 | -3.6399200295023 | 1.6399200295023 |
| 48 | -2 | -3.31620191529722 | 1.31620191529722 |
| 49 | -6 | -14.1817041043693 | 8.18170410436926 |
| 50 | -7 | -9.8456244126101 | 2.8456244126101 |
| 51 | -6 | -8.35429058071295 | 2.35429058071295 |
| 52 | -6 | -1.15513546166168 | -4.84486453833832 |
| 53 | -3 | -1.24116430557763 | -1.75883569442237 |
| 54 | -2 | -2.08198429009561 | 0.0819842900956118 |
| 55 | -5 | -1.8855238190182 | -3.1144761809818 |
| 56 | -11 | -5.45747162274383 | -5.54252837725617 |
| 57 | -11 | -7.62594901919126 | -3.37405098080874 |
| 58 | -11 | -12.7912975213794 | 1.79129752137943 |
| 59 | -10 | -10.6904909099594 | 0.690490909959447 |
| 60 | -14 | -11.1203556197389 | -2.87964438026114 |
| 61 | -8 | -22.6405865738549 | 14.6405865738549 |
| 62 | -9 | -15.642901205596 | 6.64290120559598 |
| 63 | -5 | -11.7165541725048 | 6.7165541725048 |
| 64 | -1 | -3.84271796572512 | 2.84271796572512 |
| 65 | -2 | 2.34657311744972 | -4.34657311744972 |
| 66 | -5 | 0.404867048472679 | -5.40486704847268 |
| 67 | -4 | -4.11086998428761 | 0.110869984287612 |
| 68 | -6 | -6.22916410354909 | 0.229164103549088 |
| 69 | -2 | -3.71259537488628 | 1.71259537488628 |
| 70 | -2 | -3.66994775419991 | 1.66994775419991 |
| 71 | -2 | -1.9106544279816 | -0.0893455720184049 |
| 72 | -2 | -3.92737001948593 | 1.92737001948593 |
| 73 | 2 | -6.43116918873494 | 8.43116918873494 |
| 74 | 1 | -6.13292027845711 | 7.13292027845711 |
| 75 | -8 | -1.76239774510724 | -6.23760225489275 |
| 76 | -1 | -3.88283530766067 | 2.88283530766067 |
| 77 | 1 | 0.0506691885345179 | 0.949330811465482 |
| 78 | -1 | 1.41335598065059 | -2.41335598065058 |
| 79 | 2 | 0.771394423386027 | 1.22860557661397 |
| 80 | 2 | -0.477716248182609 | 2.47771624818261 |
| 81 | 1 | 4.12385315856312 | -3.12385315856312 |
| 82 | -1 | 0.937503472575087 | -1.93750347257509 |
| 83 | -2 | -0.267686249840127 | -1.73231375015987 |
| 84 | -2 | -2.70755467115093 | 0.707554671150927 |
| 85 | -1 | -3.90686337712646 | 2.90686337712646 |
| 86 | -8 | -7.75904595506691 | -0.240954044933093 |
| 87 | -4 | -12.7139988993758 | 8.71399889937578 |
| 88 | -6 | -1.71801260706455 | -4.28198739293545 |
| 89 | -3 | -3.24975961186104 | 0.249759611861043 |
| 90 | -3 | -3.43407684731716 | 0.434076847317165 |
| 91 | -7 | -0.949765593154292 | -6.05023440684571 |
| 92 | -9 | -6.73742822062858 | -2.26257177937142 |
| 93 | -11 | -7.18162654715451 | -3.81837345284549 |
| 94 | -13 | -10.4872242786973 | -2.51277572130266 |
| 95 | -11 | -12.0494579388267 | 1.04945793882669 |
| 96 | -9 | -11.8392796656016 | 2.83927966560163 |
| 97 | -17 | -10.8976317658984 | -6.10236823410157 |
| 98 | -22 | -21.9207191457208 | -0.0792808542792116 |
| 99 | -25 | -23.9301699460911 | -1.06983005390891 |
| 100 | -20 | -23.8443303313209 | 3.84433033132088 |
| 101 | -24 | -18.4650208410006 | -5.53497915899939 |
| 102 | -24 | -22.5917851446468 | -1.40821485535317 |
| 103 | -22 | -23.534762234168 | 1.53476223416797 |
| 104 | -19 | -23.0182091146997 | 4.01820911469974 |
| 105 | -18 | -19.7375868429509 | 1.73758684295092 |
| 106 | -17 | -18.8640472590994 | 1.86404725909939 |
| 107 | -11 | -16.3006023135486 | 5.30060231354856 |
| 108 | -11 | -12.6031589766217 | 1.60315897662167 |
| 109 | -12 | -15.3567192484536 | 3.35671924845357 |
| 110 | -10 | -17.9639965010657 | 7.96399650106574 |
| 111 | -15 | -14.7434547251998 | -0.256545274800175 |
| 112 | -15 | -12.4214078844722 | -2.5785921155278 |
| 113 | -15 | -14.3434687705213 | -0.656531229478665 |
| 114 | -13 | -13.7391608964813 | 0.739160896481325 |
| 115 | -8 | -12.1744497615472 | 4.17444976154723 |
| 116 | -13 | -8.95349689177705 | -4.04650310822295 |
| 117 | -9 | -11.7925826269804 | 2.79258262698041 |
| 118 | -7 | -10.0777945434476 | 3.07779454344764 |
| 119 | -4 | -5.49367914717275 | 1.49367914717275 |
| 120 | -4 | -5.49333964632557 | 1.49333964632557 |
| 121 | -2 | -7.68215346663847 | 5.68215346663847 |
| 122 | 0 | -7.14476392874124 | 7.14476392874124 |
| 123 | -2 | -7.04816165545275 | 5.04816165545275 |
| 124 | -3 | -1.77638076278752 | -1.22361923721248 |
| 125 | 1 | -2.05218496212275 | 3.05218496212275 |
| 126 | -2 | 1.63963162936374 | -3.63963162936374 |
| 127 | -1 | 1.44941477306127 | -2.44941477306127 |
| 128 | 1 | -2.39041829988267 | 3.39041829988267 |
| 129 | -3 | 2.12389748007427 | -5.12389748007427 |
| 130 | -4 | -1.35899508294134 | -2.64100491705866 |
| 131 | -9 | -1.10964239213083 | -7.89035760786917 |
| 132 | -9 | -7.45736159294381 | -1.54263840705619 |
| 133 | -7 | -10.3547136396956 | 3.35471363969562 |
| 134 | -14 | -10.9340219587569 | -3.06597804124312 |
| 135 | -12 | -18.4870319974291 | 6.48703199742909 |
| 136 | -16 | -14.3088595146578 | -1.6911404853422 |
| 137 | -20 | -13.5732312928695 | -6.42676870713047 |
| 138 | -12 | -18.551814571054 | 6.55181457105397 |
| 139 | -12 | -11.4979305478288 | -0.502069452171225 |
| 140 | -10 | -12.1744303117944 | 2.17443031179441 |
| 141 | -10 | -11.2715863012816 | 1.27158630128158 |
| 142 | -13 | -9.6364063824501 | -3.3635936175499 |
| 143 | -16 | -11.5880256443396 | -4.41197435566041 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 144 | -13.5376069206666 | -22.9835002745 | -4.09171356683327 |
| 145 | -13.8096387358532 | -25.2429584038215 | -2.37631906788486 |
| 146 | -18.7442608832579 | -31.8870092531731 | -5.60151251334261 |
| 147 | -21.1404119083796 | -35.8121939177936 | -6.46862989896564 |
| 148 | -24.0212545816771 | -40.0933432544478 | -7.94916590890629 |
| 149 | -23.6854310461342 | -41.0603426562902 | -6.31051943597812 |
| 150 | -20.1186056667935 | -38.7194369015165 | -1.51777443207053 |
| 151 | -19.7987217659113 | -39.5629652276792 | -0.0344783041434837 |
| 152 | -19.290692943464 | -40.1663707112825 | 1.58498482435446 |
| 153 | -20.179945644742 | -42.1230518149454 | 1.76316052546136 |
| 154 | -20.9331126249603 | -43.9058455018734 | 2.03962025195284 |
| 155 | -20.9615547482751 | -44.9310508298003 | 3.00794133325002 |
