| Multiple Linear Regression - Estimated Regression Equation |
| HPC[t] = + 0.0142602495543671 -0.252252921370569M1[t] -1.33665082194494M2[t] -1.33771538918598M3[t] + 0.0778867102396507M4[t] -0.00651119033471991M5[t] -0.257575757575759M6[t] + 0.241359675183205M7[t] -0.259704892057834M8[t] + 0.405897207367796M9[t] -0.595167359873242M10[t] -0.429565260447613M11[t] -0.0822687660922955t + e[t] |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Ordinary Least Squares | |||||
| Variable | Parameter | S.D. | T-STAT H0: parameter = 0 | 2-tail p-value | 1-tail p-value |
| (Intercept) | 0.0142602495543671 | 2.333387 | 0.0061 | 0.995133 | 0.497567 |
| M1 | -0.252252921370569 | 2.907391 | -0.0868 | 0.930994 | 0.465497 |
| M2 | -1.33665082194494 | 2.907082 | -0.4598 | 0.646434 | 0.323217 |
| M3 | -1.33771538918598 | 2.906841 | -0.4602 | 0.646145 | 0.323072 |
| M4 | 0.0778867102396507 | 2.906669 | 0.0268 | 0.978664 | 0.489332 |
| M5 | -0.00651119033471991 | 2.906565 | -0.0022 | 0.998216 | 0.499108 |
| M6 | -0.257575757575759 | 2.906531 | -0.0886 | 0.929521 | 0.46476 |
| M7 | 0.241359675183205 | 2.906565 | 0.083 | 0.933948 | 0.466974 |
| M8 | -0.259704892057834 | 2.906669 | -0.0893 | 0.928943 | 0.464471 |
| M9 | 0.405897207367796 | 2.906841 | 0.1396 | 0.889164 | 0.444582 |
| M10 | -0.595167359873242 | 2.907082 | -0.2047 | 0.838103 | 0.419052 |
| M11 | -0.429565260447613 | 2.907391 | -0.1477 | 0.882769 | 0.441385 |
| t | -0.0822687660922955 | 0.014144 | -5.8165 | 0 | 0 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Regression Statistics | |
| Multiple R | 0.458312060907168 |
| R-squared | 0.210049945172976 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.137131478573558 |
| F-TEST (value) | 2.88061385501836 |
| F-TEST (DF numerator) | 12 |
| F-TEST (DF denominator) | 130 |
| p-value | 0.00148678265612856 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Residual Statistics | |
| Residual Standard Deviation | 6.96302566448772 |
| Sum Squared Residuals | 6302.8844325609 |
| Multiple Linear Regression - Actuals, Interpolation, and Residuals | |||
| Time or Index | Actuals | Interpolation Forecast | Residuals Prediction Error |
| 1 | 14 | -0.320261437908494 | 14.3202614379085 |
| 2 | 14 | -1.48692810457516 | 15.4869281045752 |
| 3 | 15 | -1.57026143790851 | 16.5702614379085 |
| 4 | 13 | -0.236928104575167 | 13.2369281045752 |
| 5 | 8 | -0.403594771241831 | 8.40359477124183 |
| 6 | 7 | -0.736928104575163 | 7.73692810457516 |
| 7 | 3 | -0.320261437908497 | 3.3202614379085 |
| 8 | 3 | -0.90359477124183 | 3.90359477124183 |
| 9 | 4 | -0.320261437908495 | 4.32026143790849 |
| 10 | 4 | -1.40359477124183 | 5.40359477124183 |
| 11 | 0 | -1.3202614379085 | 1.3202614379085 |
| 12 | -4 | -0.972964943553179 | -3.02703505644682 |
| 13 | -14 | -1.30748663101604 | -12.692513368984 |
| 14 | -18 | -2.47415329768271 | -15.5258467023173 |
| 15 | -8 | -2.55748663101604 | -5.44251336898396 |
| 16 | -1 | -1.22415329768271 | 0.22415329768271 |
| 17 | 1 | -1.39081996434938 | 2.39081996434938 |
| 18 | 2 | -1.72415329768271 | 3.72415329768271 |
| 19 | 0 | -1.30748663101604 | 1.30748663101604 |
| 20 | 1 | -1.89081996434938 | 2.89081996434938 |
| 21 | 0 | -1.30748663101604 | 1.30748663101604 |
| 22 | -1 | -2.39081996434938 | 1.39081996434938 |
| 23 | -3 | -2.30748663101604 | -0.692513368983958 |
| 24 | -3 | -1.96019013666072 | -1.03980986333928 |
| 25 | -3 | -2.29471182412359 | -0.705288175876412 |
| 26 | -4 | -3.46137849079025 | -0.538621509209745 |
| 27 | -8 | -3.54471182412359 | -4.45528817587641 |
| 28 | -9 | -2.21137849079026 | -6.78862150920974 |
| 29 | -13 | -2.37804515745692 | -10.6219548425431 |
| 30 | -18 | -2.71137849079025 | -15.2886215092097 |
| 31 | -11 | -2.29471182412359 | -8.70528817587641 |
| 32 | -9 | -2.87804515745692 | -6.12195484254308 |
| 33 | -10 | -2.29471182412359 | -7.70528817587641 |
| 34 | -13 | -3.37804515745692 | -9.62195484254308 |
| 35 | -11 | -3.29471182412359 | -7.70528817587641 |
| 36 | -5 | -2.94741532976827 | -2.05258467023173 |
| 37 | -15 | -3.28193701723114 | -11.7180629827689 |
| 38 | -6 | -4.4486036838978 | -1.5513963161022 |
| 39 | -6 | -4.53193701723113 | -1.46806298276887 |
| 40 | -3 | -3.1986036838978 | 0.198603683897803 |
| 41 | -1 | -3.36527035056447 | 2.36527035056447 |
| 42 | -3 | -3.6986036838978 | 0.698603683897803 |
| 43 | -4 | -3.28193701723114 | -0.718062982768864 |
| 44 | -6 | -3.86527035056447 | -2.13472964943553 |
| 45 | 0 | -3.28193701723114 | 3.28193701723114 |
| 46 | -4 | -4.36527035056447 | 0.365270350564468 |
| 47 | -2 | -4.28193701723113 | 2.28193701723113 |
| 48 | -2 | -3.93464052287582 | 1.93464052287582 |
| 49 | -6 | -4.26916221033868 | -1.73083778966132 |
| 50 | -7 | -5.43582887700534 | -1.56417112299466 |
| 51 | -6 | -5.51916221033868 | -0.480837789661319 |
| 52 | -6 | -4.18582887700535 | -1.81417112299465 |
| 53 | -3 | -4.35249554367201 | 1.35249554367201 |
| 54 | -2 | -4.68582887700535 | 2.68582887700535 |
| 55 | -5 | -4.26916221033868 | -0.730837789661318 |
| 56 | -11 | -4.85249554367202 | -6.14750445632798 |
| 57 | -11 | -4.26916221033868 | -6.73083778966132 |
| 58 | -11 | -5.35249554367201 | -5.64750445632799 |
| 59 | -10 | -5.26916221033868 | -4.73083778966132 |
| 60 | -14 | -4.92186571598337 | -9.07813428401663 |
| 61 | -8 | -5.25638740344623 | -2.74361259655377 |
| 62 | -9 | -6.42305407011289 | -2.57694592988711 |
| 63 | -5 | -6.50638740344623 | 1.50638740344623 |
| 64 | -1 | -5.17305407011289 | 4.17305407011289 |
| 65 | -2 | -5.33972073677956 | 3.33972073677956 |
| 66 | -5 | -5.6730540701129 | 0.673054070112895 |
| 67 | -4 | -5.25638740344623 | 1.25638740344623 |
| 68 | -6 | -5.83972073677956 | -0.16027926322044 |
| 69 | -2 | -5.25638740344623 | 3.25638740344623 |
| 70 | -2 | -6.33972073677956 | 4.33972073677956 |
| 71 | -2 | -6.25638740344623 | 4.25638740344623 |
| 72 | -2 | -5.90909090909091 | 3.90909090909091 |
| 73 | 2 | -6.24361259655377 | 8.24361259655377 |
| 74 | 1 | -7.41027926322044 | 8.41027926322044 |
| 75 | -8 | -7.49361259655377 | -0.506387403446227 |
| 76 | -1 | -6.16027926322044 | 5.16027926322044 |
| 77 | 1 | -6.32694592988711 | 7.32694592988711 |
| 78 | -1 | -6.66027926322044 | 5.66027926322044 |
| 79 | 2 | -6.24361259655377 | 8.24361259655377 |
| 80 | 2 | -6.82694592988711 | 8.82694592988711 |
| 81 | 1 | -6.24361259655377 | 7.24361259655377 |
| 82 | -1 | -7.32694592988711 | 6.32694592988711 |
| 83 | -2 | -7.24361259655377 | 5.24361259655377 |
| 84 | -2 | -6.89631610219845 | 4.89631610219845 |
| 85 | -1 | -7.23083778966132 | 6.23083778966132 |
| 86 | -8 | -8.39750445632798 | 0.397504456327984 |
| 87 | -4 | -8.48083778966132 | 4.48083778966132 |
| 88 | -6 | -7.14750445632799 | 1.14750445632799 |
| 89 | -3 | -7.31417112299465 | 4.31417112299465 |
| 90 | -3 | -7.64750445632799 | 4.64750445632799 |
| 91 | -7 | -7.23083778966132 | 0.230837789661319 |
| 92 | -9 | -7.81417112299465 | -1.18582887700535 |
| 93 | -11 | -7.23083778966132 | -3.76916221033868 |
| 94 | -13 | -8.31417112299465 | -4.68582887700535 |
| 95 | -11 | -8.23083778966132 | -2.76916221033868 |
| 96 | -9 | -7.883541295306 | -1.116458704694 |
| 97 | -17 | -8.21806298276887 | -8.78193701723113 |
| 98 | -22 | -9.38472964943553 | -12.6152703505645 |
| 99 | -25 | -9.46806298276886 | -15.5319370172311 |
| 100 | -20 | -8.13472964943553 | -11.8652703505645 |
| 101 | -24 | -8.3013963161022 | -15.6986036838978 |
| 102 | -24 | -8.63472964943553 | -15.3652703505645 |
| 103 | -22 | -8.21806298276887 | -13.7819370172311 |
| 104 | -19 | -8.80139631610219 | -10.1986036838978 |
| 105 | -18 | -8.21806298276886 | -9.78193701723114 |
| 106 | -17 | -9.3013963161022 | -7.6986036838978 |
| 107 | -11 | -9.21806298276887 | -1.78193701723113 |
| 108 | -11 | -8.87076648841355 | -2.12923351158645 |
| 109 | -12 | -9.20528817587641 | -2.79471182412359 |
| 110 | -10 | -10.3719548425431 | 0.371954842543075 |
| 111 | -15 | -10.4552881758764 | -4.54471182412359 |
| 112 | -15 | -9.12195484254308 | -5.87804515745692 |
| 113 | -15 | -9.28862150920974 | -5.71137849079026 |
| 114 | -13 | -9.62195484254308 | -3.37804515745692 |
| 115 | -8 | -9.20528817587641 | 1.20528817587641 |
| 116 | -13 | -9.78862150920975 | -3.21137849079025 |
| 117 | -9 | -9.20528817587641 | 0.205288175876411 |
| 118 | -7 | -10.2886215092097 | 3.28862150920974 |
| 119 | -4 | -10.2052881758764 | 6.20528817587641 |
| 120 | -4 | -9.85799168152109 | 5.85799168152109 |
| 121 | -2 | -10.192513368984 | 8.19251336898396 |
| 122 | 0 | -11.3591800356506 | 11.3591800356506 |
| 123 | -2 | -11.442513368984 | 9.44251336898396 |
| 124 | -3 | -10.1091800356506 | 7.10918003565062 |
| 125 | 1 | -10.2758467023173 | 11.2758467023173 |
| 126 | -2 | -10.6091800356506 | 8.60918003565063 |
| 127 | -1 | -10.192513368984 | 9.19251336898396 |
| 128 | 1 | -10.7758467023173 | 11.7758467023173 |
| 129 | -3 | -10.192513368984 | 7.19251336898395 |
| 130 | -4 | -11.2758467023173 | 7.27584670231729 |
| 131 | -9 | -11.192513368984 | 2.19251336898396 |
| 132 | -9 | -10.8452168746286 | 1.84521687462864 |
| 133 | -7 | -11.1797385620915 | 4.1797385620915 |
| 134 | -14 | -12.3464052287582 | -1.65359477124183 |
| 135 | -12 | -12.4297385620915 | 0.429738562091503 |
| 136 | -16 | -11.0964052287582 | -4.90359477124183 |
| 137 | -20 | -11.2630718954248 | -8.73692810457517 |
| 138 | -12 | -11.5964052287582 | -0.403594771241826 |
| 139 | -12 | -11.1797385620915 | -0.820261437908497 |
| 140 | -10 | -11.7630718954248 | 1.76307189542484 |
| 141 | -10 | -11.1797385620915 | 1.1797385620915 |
| 142 | -13 | -12.2630718954248 | -0.736928104575164 |
| 143 | -16 | -12.1797385620915 | -3.8202614379085 |
| Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| p-values | Alternative Hypothesis | ||
| breakpoint index | greater | 2-sided | less |
| 16 | 0.475409814779199 | 0.950819629558398 | 0.524590185220801 |
| 17 | 0.725315865691018 | 0.549368268617964 | 0.274684134308982 |
| 18 | 0.821817990644671 | 0.356364018710658 | 0.178182009355329 |
| 19 | 0.871316803855427 | 0.257366392289146 | 0.128683196144573 |
| 20 | 0.89566701044484 | 0.20866597911032 | 0.10433298955516 |
| 21 | 0.885623155023802 | 0.228753689952396 | 0.114376844976198 |
| 22 | 0.862028567549093 | 0.275942864901814 | 0.137971432450907 |
| 23 | 0.844446274853193 | 0.311107450293614 | 0.155553725146807 |
| 24 | 0.854407498506451 | 0.291185002987098 | 0.145592501493549 |
| 25 | 0.872641465200814 | 0.254717069598371 | 0.127358534799186 |
| 26 | 0.876674634354206 | 0.246650731291588 | 0.123325365645794 |
| 27 | 0.831534910430099 | 0.336930179139802 | 0.168465089569901 |
| 28 | 0.787631726181404 | 0.424736547637193 | 0.212368273818596 |
| 29 | 0.760860292452278 | 0.478279415095445 | 0.239139707547722 |
| 30 | 0.795820850287573 | 0.408358299424853 | 0.204179149712427 |
| 31 | 0.752198499964961 | 0.495603000070078 | 0.247801500035039 |
| 32 | 0.700610033498421 | 0.598779933003158 | 0.299389966501579 |
| 33 | 0.648229131339568 | 0.703541737320865 | 0.351770868660432 |
| 34 | 0.603459620604444 | 0.793080758791111 | 0.396540379395556 |
| 35 | 0.562306838607763 | 0.875386322784475 | 0.437693161392237 |
| 36 | 0.59598482729409 | 0.80803034541182 | 0.40401517270591 |
| 37 | 0.579295282137578 | 0.841409435724845 | 0.420704717862422 |
| 38 | 0.638710582896674 | 0.722578834206652 | 0.361289417103326 |
| 39 | 0.637038055486325 | 0.72592388902735 | 0.362961944513675 |
| 40 | 0.645845021247771 | 0.708309957504458 | 0.354154978752229 |
| 41 | 0.704907552163798 | 0.590184895672404 | 0.295092447836202 |
| 42 | 0.733680194565117 | 0.532639610869766 | 0.266319805434883 |
| 43 | 0.734618737855293 | 0.530762524289414 | 0.265381262144707 |
| 44 | 0.705539569973185 | 0.588920860053629 | 0.294460430026814 |
| 45 | 0.73438479880857 | 0.53123040238286 | 0.26561520119143 |
| 46 | 0.723011776086706 | 0.553976447826588 | 0.276988223913294 |
| 47 | 0.739071130113897 | 0.521857739772206 | 0.260928869886103 |
| 48 | 0.740435852436021 | 0.519128295127958 | 0.259564147563979 |
| 49 | 0.726901843157409 | 0.546196313685183 | 0.273098156842591 |
| 50 | 0.694116986943961 | 0.611766026112079 | 0.305883013056039 |
| 51 | 0.653467826089637 | 0.693064347820726 | 0.346532173910363 |
| 52 | 0.603883856802092 | 0.792232286395816 | 0.396116143197908 |
| 53 | 0.574105597186422 | 0.851788805627157 | 0.425894402813579 |
| 54 | 0.564583202303391 | 0.870833595393218 | 0.435416797696609 |
| 55 | 0.525556098229767 | 0.948887803540466 | 0.474443901770233 |
| 56 | 0.487331892010807 | 0.974663784021613 | 0.512668107989193 |
| 57 | 0.454492122813286 | 0.908984245626572 | 0.545507877186714 |
| 58 | 0.417494168406809 | 0.834988336813619 | 0.582505831593191 |
| 59 | 0.380386385328218 | 0.760772770656437 | 0.619613614671782 |
| 60 | 0.382964593326368 | 0.765929186652736 | 0.617035406673632 |
| 61 | 0.361864407796839 | 0.723728815593679 | 0.638135592203161 |
| 62 | 0.326971111783139 | 0.653942223566278 | 0.673028888216861 |
| 63 | 0.297022890082274 | 0.594045780164549 | 0.702977109917726 |
| 64 | 0.289142317273821 | 0.578284634547643 | 0.710857682726179 |
| 65 | 0.271517618716012 | 0.543035237432025 | 0.728482381283988 |
| 66 | 0.239481588499675 | 0.47896317699935 | 0.760518411500325 |
| 67 | 0.215515271269865 | 0.431030542539731 | 0.784484728730135 |
| 68 | 0.189157352356313 | 0.378314704712625 | 0.810842647643687 |
| 69 | 0.176199137674268 | 0.352398275348536 | 0.823800862325732 |
| 70 | 0.171415985171714 | 0.342831970343429 | 0.828584014828285 |
| 71 | 0.165024618101914 | 0.330049236203828 | 0.834975381898086 |
| 72 | 0.157390088755482 | 0.314780177510964 | 0.842609911244518 |
| 73 | 0.186974720297348 | 0.373949440594696 | 0.813025279702652 |
| 74 | 0.211662068639426 | 0.423324137278852 | 0.788337931360574 |
| 75 | 0.175747348710117 | 0.351494697420234 | 0.824252651289883 |
| 76 | 0.167231132340862 | 0.334462264681725 | 0.832768867659138 |
| 77 | 0.180178710415506 | 0.360357420831011 | 0.819821289584494 |
| 78 | 0.175495213108795 | 0.35099042621759 | 0.824504786891205 |
| 79 | 0.199151218535425 | 0.39830243707085 | 0.800848781464575 |
| 80 | 0.234083684415019 | 0.468167368830037 | 0.765916315584981 |
| 81 | 0.254326899421443 | 0.508653798842886 | 0.745673100578557 |
| 82 | 0.265614211125394 | 0.531228422250789 | 0.734385788874606 |
| 83 | 0.265842036523204 | 0.531684073046408 | 0.734157963476796 |
| 84 | 0.254517927637461 | 0.509035855274921 | 0.745482072362539 |
| 85 | 0.263645371565507 | 0.527290743131014 | 0.736354628434493 |
| 86 | 0.233322808391534 | 0.466645616783068 | 0.766677191608466 |
| 87 | 0.249318888600691 | 0.498637777201382 | 0.750681111399309 |
| 88 | 0.253858772070509 | 0.507717544141018 | 0.746141227929491 |
| 89 | 0.316908054241467 | 0.633816108482934 | 0.683091945758533 |
| 90 | 0.38128109813289 | 0.76256219626578 | 0.61871890186711 |
| 91 | 0.377611535000118 | 0.755223070000235 | 0.622388464999882 |
| 92 | 0.356748026222957 | 0.713496052445915 | 0.643251973777043 |
| 93 | 0.331497756304896 | 0.662995512609792 | 0.668502243695104 |
| 94 | 0.3008865761352 | 0.6017731522704 | 0.6991134238648 |
| 95 | 0.27512705120496 | 0.550254102409921 | 0.72487294879504 |
| 96 | 0.240630383693689 | 0.481260767387379 | 0.759369616306311 |
| 97 | 0.229685106213666 | 0.459370212427331 | 0.770314893786334 |
| 98 | 0.269704875580619 | 0.539409751161238 | 0.730295124419381 |
| 99 | 0.361363465254174 | 0.722726930508347 | 0.638636534745826 |
| 100 | 0.366117510824832 | 0.732235021649665 | 0.633882489175168 |
| 101 | 0.436287348451549 | 0.872574696903098 | 0.563712651548451 |
| 102 | 0.531829471284404 | 0.936341057431191 | 0.468170528715596 |
| 103 | 0.625210540623366 | 0.749578918753268 | 0.374789459376634 |
| 104 | 0.658879103392141 | 0.682241793215718 | 0.341120896607859 |
| 105 | 0.691576192263825 | 0.616847615472349 | 0.308423807736175 |
| 106 | 0.709534051275778 | 0.580931897448444 | 0.290465948724222 |
| 107 | 0.655973379812857 | 0.688053240374286 | 0.344026620187143 |
| 108 | 0.618009449271541 | 0.763981101456918 | 0.381990550728459 |
| 109 | 0.620577214077604 | 0.758845571844791 | 0.379422785922396 |
| 110 | 0.580024685698655 | 0.839950628602691 | 0.419975314301345 |
| 111 | 0.612979122444883 | 0.774041755110235 | 0.387020877555118 |
| 112 | 0.622137377092972 | 0.755725245814056 | 0.377862622907028 |
| 113 | 0.649562760673933 | 0.700874478652133 | 0.350437239326067 |
| 114 | 0.713734432924697 | 0.572531134150605 | 0.286265567075303 |
| 115 | 0.720222351166521 | 0.559555297666959 | 0.279777648833479 |
| 116 | 0.917298687644065 | 0.165402624711869 | 0.0827013123559347 |
| 117 | 0.977615824677894 | 0.0447683506442113 | 0.0223841753221057 |
| 118 | 0.995738844898281 | 0.00852231020343869 | 0.00426115510171934 |
| 119 | 0.996587902701877 | 0.00682419459624522 | 0.00341209729812261 |
| 120 | 0.996020900192132 | 0.00795819961573515 | 0.00397909980786758 |
| 121 | 0.996193980549418 | 0.00761203890116386 | 0.00380601945058193 |
| 122 | 0.992983515430496 | 0.0140329691390075 | 0.00701648456950374 |
| 123 | 0.984220251451412 | 0.0315594970971754 | 0.0157797485485877 |
| 124 | 0.966395086846221 | 0.0672098263075584 | 0.0336049131537792 |
| 125 | 0.999416775261006 | 0.00116644947798808 | 0.000583224738994038 |
| 126 | 0.997032790581434 | 0.00593441883713222 | 0.00296720941856611 |
| 127 | 0.99093940732545 | 0.0181211853491007 | 0.00906059267455033 |
| Meta Analysis of Goldfeld-Quandt test for Heteroskedasticity | |||
| Description | # significant tests | % significant tests | OK/NOK |
| 1% type I error level | 6 | 0.0535714285714286 | NOK |
| 5% type I error level | 10 | 0.0892857142857143 | NOK |
| 10% type I error level | 11 | 0.0982142857142857 | OK |
