| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 15 | 14.8769413072206 | 0.0100435992906153 | 0.0100435992906153 | 0.277489588422961 |
| 4 | 13 | 13.2182441757423 | -0.000122053695778824 | -0.00012205369577876 | -0.530964217124386 |
| 5 | 8 | 8.6259274389104 | -0.0251565997702507 | -0.025156599770251 | -1.46145326150101 |
| 6 | 7 | 7.21401726998388 | -0.0325791928270862 | -0.0325791928270863 | -0.441334251909627 |
| 7 | 3 | 3.52976983871605 | -0.051991451095151 | -0.0519914510951516 | -1.16213358005385 |
| 8 | 3 | 3.10300750772653 | -0.0539728517380396 | -0.0539728517380399 | -0.11926862191823 |
| 9 | 4 | 3.93358659582273 | -0.0493209451528025 | -0.0493209451528029 | 0.281500572378724 |
| 10 | 4 | 4.02955165731497 | -0.0485608771944812 | -0.0485608771944815 | 0.0462354773132786 |
| 11 | 0 | 0.519481126075515 | -0.0665756158376943 | -0.0665756158376952 | -1.10157168871119 |
| 12 | -4 | -3.40823826153273 | -0.0865661334729215 | -0.0865661334729223 | -1.22873688718845 |
| 13 | -14 | -10.3137649595637 | 0.253418413352943 | -2.78760254679921 | -2.64857943451539 |
| 14 | -18 | -17.3734626931381 | 0.0626025264564854 | 0.062602525753439 | -1.96135193017404 |
| 15 | -8 | -9.16440415232296 | 0.105410225208651 | 0.10541022520865 | 2.58318293646389 |
| 16 | -1 | -2.04309445473288 | 0.125213240880299 | 0.125213240880297 | 2.23024788937876 |
| 17 | 1 | 0.546054690797935 | 0.131463606648824 | 0.131463606648824 | 0.783322605311788 |
| 18 | 2 | 1.728369220107 | 0.134088870492981 | 0.134088870492981 | 0.334083612428025 |
| 19 | 0 | 0.100864145827197 | 0.129705505677419 | 0.129705505677419 | -0.560040332678699 |
| 20 | 1 | 0.795015077722133 | 0.131106284464145 | 0.131106284464144 | 0.179446303373598 |
| 21 | 0 | -0.00670236246992912 | 0.128797081748523 | 0.128797081748522 | -0.296559038206605 |
| 22 | -1 | -0.981610564399776 | 0.126071615377188 | 0.126071615377187 | -0.35088413028747 |
| 23 | -3 | -2.85891935264086 | 0.121136697889181 | 0.12113669788918 | -0.636902646948253 |
| 24 | -3 | -3.0760328021721 | 0.120305535322944 | 0.120305535322942 | -0.107534212578674 |
| 25 | -3 | -2.03641855682593 | 0.0985744329544819 | -1.08431875973271 | 0.324376561817269 |
| 26 | -4 | -3.86014723090688 | 0.0659484135277833 | 0.0659484105781064 | -0.550430740059947 |
| 27 | -8 | -7.56204695443731 | 0.0530797145415745 | 0.0530797145415727 | -1.19546425738614 |
| 28 | -9 | -8.87217944143032 | 0.0505747864648742 | 0.0505747864648712 | -0.433221192229456 |
| 29 | -13 | -12.5556271147028 | 0.044402339143282 | 0.0444023391432787 | -1.18672575908716 |
| 30 | -18 | -17.3969003308474 | 0.036441785835653 | 0.036441785835648 | -1.55274493907059 |
| 31 | -11 | -11.776466367497 | 0.045511840090148 | 0.0455118400901448 | 1.77468040763453 |
| 32 | -9 | -9.35975139821516 | 0.0493564659620028 | 0.0493564659619999 | 0.753604917193541 |
| 33 | -10 | -9.96288770086926 | 0.0483002596282864 | 0.0483002596282836 | -0.207372064203432 |
| 34 | -13 | -12.681618616038 | 0.0438284461800047 | 0.043828446180001 | -0.87940348387737 |
| 35 | -11 | -11.2303377264097 | 0.0460993667261608 | 0.0460993667261576 | 0.447308799564076 |
| 36 | -5 | -5.76431008709453 | 0.0548303180644591 | 0.0548303180644571 | 1.72253016356698 |
| 37 | -15 | -12.3838538101478 | 0.158227280590851 | -1.74050008402376 | -2.2766032758784 |
| 38 | -6 | -6.836303919177 | 0.226006295825418 | 0.226006293890412 | 1.58836604824023 |
| 39 | -6 | -6.27112005472558 | 0.226864365276649 | 0.226864365276647 | 0.107644864580486 |
| 40 | -3 | -3.55592846589704 | 0.23025381116652 | 0.230253811166517 | 0.790667769278387 |
| 41 | -1 | -1.47481193981342 | 0.232522877646819 | 0.232522877646818 | 0.588140386637024 |
| 42 | -3 | -3.00026356848236 | 0.230397634369827 | 0.230397634369825 | -0.558625780090938 |
| 43 | -4 | -4.0599576445218 | 0.228842222461104 | 0.228842222461102 | -0.409948176238796 |
| 44 | -6 | -5.94903716317698 | 0.226292243866355 | 0.226292243866351 | -0.673004663961347 |
| 45 | 0 | -0.867699942046823 | 0.2321305738006 | 0.232130573800599 | 1.54277003103581 |
| 46 | -4 | -3.81243440804352 | 0.228314900351702 | 0.228314900351699 | -1.00950034309338 |
| 47 | -2 | -2.3865273076339 | 0.229751580090763 | 0.229751580090761 | 0.380554124805932 |
| 48 | -2 | -2.22123591627136 | 0.229674343715716 | 0.229674343715714 | -0.0204832477265877 |
| 49 | -6 | -3.16977135745148 | 0.243248484208794 | -2.67573332411073 | -0.394969224883562 |
| 50 | -7 | -6.75724484705717 | 0.204982194617971 | 0.204982192036383 | -1.14753872481734 |
| 51 | -6 | -6.24563519585391 | 0.205598199352456 | 0.205598199352453 | 0.0973305967662337 |
| 52 | -6 | -6.18629594595889 | 0.205439922015978 | 0.205439922015973 | -0.04647012344863 |
| 53 | -3 | -3.52882616547081 | 0.207828797484566 | 0.207828797484563 | 0.779100092589607 |
| 54 | -2 | -2.33752335905057 | 0.208773864746301 | 0.208773864746299 | 0.31248681845512 |
| 55 | -5 | -4.84992723048085 | 0.206165351470807 | 0.206165351470803 | -0.864620922487317 |
| 56 | -11 | -10.4415999762737 | 0.200613840571995 | 0.200613840571989 | -1.84219155499417 |
| 57 | -11 | -11.0888112646292 | 0.199802828946357 | 0.199802828946349 | -0.269385889500321 |
| 58 | -11 | -11.1635935740662 | 0.199540418221791 | 0.199540418221783 | -0.0872459830858827 |
| 59 | -10 | -10.2886098184869 | 0.200185297641991 | 0.200185297641984 | 0.214613574911291 |
| 60 | -14 | -13.7211483213875 | 0.196720263512565 | 0.196720263512555 | -1.1542516397896 |
| 61 | -8 | -7.28369311927186 | 0.139489577580074 | -1.53438535130491 | 2.07010583724185 |
| 62 | -9 | -8.91376024525557 | 0.124828887529358 | 0.124828885267281 | -0.535664549726948 |
| 63 | -5 | -5.55294680525638 | 0.130219893312552 | 0.13021989331255 | 1.02728801719698 |
| 64 | -1 | -1.63007355374327 | 0.133624444034102 | 0.133624444034101 | 1.204956429962 |
| 65 | -2 | -2.05946293199896 | 0.13316936579127 | 0.133169365791269 | -0.178879530209309 |
| 66 | -5 | -4.75994065257172 | 0.13090984293349 | 0.130909842933487 | -0.900302507435349 |
| 67 | -4 | -4.18888247635232 | 0.131260011619418 | 0.131260011619416 | 0.139843342232328 |
| 68 | -6 | -5.88992579003177 | 0.129803696616454 | 0.129803696616451 | -0.582156857349784 |
| 69 | -2 | -2.55230585543232 | 0.132351193849834 | 0.132351193849832 | 1.01918266882016 |
| 70 | -2 | -2.16582279786626 | 0.132552852844309 | 0.132552852844307 | 0.0807423841686285 |
| 71 | -2 | -2.12099824812507 | 0.132483293800474 | 0.132483293800472 | -0.0278728948230058 |
| 72 | -2 | -2.11572824098668 | 0.132382507356561 | 0.132382507356558 | -0.0404179906875716 |
| 73 | 2 | 2.49423257601321 | 0.0982786430937483 | -1.08106507114605 | 1.47474578777013 |
| 74 | 1 | 1.0936549833011 | 0.0876706207032721 | 0.0876706176582613 | -0.457038566013478 |
| 75 | -8 | -7.00611465463016 | 0.0760199538427909 | 0.0760199538427866 | -2.59936633734922 |
| 76 | -1 | -1.75713873565877 | 0.0799871789606223 | 0.0799871789606205 | 1.64342746538546 |
| 77 | 1 | 0.617960086911932 | 0.0815722843765484 | 0.0815722843765494 | 0.72916704448135 |
| 78 | -1 | -0.874438874607664 | 0.0804997627465825 | 0.0804997627465819 | -0.500058681625884 |
| 79 | 2 | 1.60394380356293 | 0.0821301652256662 | 0.0821301652256681 | 0.761819688784547 |
| 80 | 2 | 1.89091349032631 | 0.0822693239686737 | 0.0822693239686769 | 0.0650785564893063 |
| 81 | 1 | 1.04047247946189 | 0.0816361254075834 | 0.0816361254075843 | -0.296326761795218 |
| 82 | -1 | -0.825356595459817 | 0.0803149298701656 | 0.0803149298701646 | -0.618719378551141 |
| 83 | -2 | -1.92503280456109 | 0.0795149455245457 | 0.0795149455245439 | -0.374888989168069 |
| 84 | -2 | -2.0523029465129 | 0.0793748489194009 | 0.079374848919399 | -0.0656966283280253 |
| 85 | -1 | -0.437985188784845 | 0.0693777965495715 | -0.763155760637674 | 0.502979882241608 |
| 86 | -8 | -7.19299485242506 | 0.0272229113855331 | 0.0272229092432392 | -2.09212655549119 |
| 87 | -4 | -4.39308093689842 | 0.0306662534969989 | 0.0306662534969971 | 0.880330643892857 |
| 88 | -6 | -5.83668846734622 | 0.0296793584891171 | 0.029679358489113 | -0.468357679217846 |
| 89 | -3 | -3.35249883834203 | 0.0311591673826801 | 0.0311591673826792 | 0.779784079099775 |
| 90 | -3 | -3.06488641552098 | 0.0313117278281839 | 0.0313117278281825 | 0.0814739128749722 |
| 91 | -7 | -6.56666409016745 | 0.0292143170600236 | 0.02921431706002 | -1.12244489651145 |
| 92 | -9 | -8.73960318470956 | 0.0279080145040229 | 0.0279080145040189 | -0.699613092666988 |
| 93 | -11 | -10.7587014301221 | 0.0266944883006659 | 0.0266944883006582 | -0.650323538476842 |
| 94 | -13 | -12.7599903465443 | 0.0254929544967659 | 0.0254929544967558 | -0.644279990331597 |
| 95 | -11 | -11.2241245747016 | 0.0263872857507838 | 0.0263872857507754 | 0.479837683096391 |
| 96 | -9 | -9.27875513304687 | 0.027522892824839 | 0.0275228928248321 | 0.60965069154683 |
| 97 | -17 | -15.4895005231289 | 0.0630106089281016 | -0.693116695309007 | -2.03635359546972 |
| 98 | -22 | -21.3062679450837 | 0.0307895097964446 | 0.0307895062587705 | -1.80998240047692 |
| 99 | -25 | -24.5933738958833 | 0.0271343154497127 | 0.0271343154496921 | -1.05348022449043 |
| 100 | -20 | -20.5546656585841 | 0.0295167987533239 | 0.0295167987533058 | 1.27439720158652 |
| 101 | -24 | -23.6223733836899 | 0.0278600066303104 | 0.0278600066302907 | -0.983946722222031 |
| 102 | -24 | -23.9775150658838 | 0.0276578358330118 | 0.027657835832991 | -0.121674715834502 |
| 103 | -22 | -22.2509719307395 | 0.02855280075828 | 0.0285528007582619 | 0.539714089017341 |
| 104 | -19 | -19.3996036396195 | 0.0300388075875834 | 0.0300388075875685 | 0.896772237612634 |
| 105 | -18 | -18.1856593830014 | 0.0306617072480531 | 0.0306617072480381 | 0.376111522956735 |
| 106 | -17 | -17.1612821551295 | 0.0311842642892165 | 0.031184264289202 | 0.315690598543386 |
| 107 | -11 | -11.7397281480563 | 0.034017363295143 | 0.0340173632951347 | 1.71245073839418 |
| 108 | -11 | -11.1120514897437 | 0.0343292179677344 | 0.034329217967726 | 0.188597859346883 |
| 109 | -12 | -11.536742698936 | 0.0366471068185271 | -0.403118171732682 | -0.149388895318335 |
| 110 | -10 | -10.2037791557513 | 0.0430305107318954 | 0.0430305076022862 | 0.400350940740701 |
| 111 | -15 | -14.474696419892 | 0.0387601582640796 | 0.0387601582640677 | -1.36978997513835 |
| 112 | -15 | -14.9687277589546 | 0.0384758065751797 | 0.0384758065751663 | -0.169254305894706 |
| 113 | -15 | -15.0259066687533 | 0.0384298221322049 | 0.0384298221321926 | -0.030387629073095 |
| 114 | -13 | -13.264784421462 | 0.0392470782375366 | 0.0392470782375256 | 0.547266491113142 |
| 115 | -8 | -8.64155900084044 | 0.041417481365056 | 0.041417481365051 | 1.45624254480684 |
| 116 | -13 | -12.525629097427 | 0.0395600577718235 | 0.0395600577718154 | -1.24705250399748 |
| 117 | -9 | -9.4398203858446 | 0.0410007412628495 | 0.0410007412628428 | 0.967734996460073 |
| 118 | -7 | -7.31482563828583 | 0.0419858708102784 | 0.0419858708102733 | 0.66204502512948 |
| 119 | -4 | -4.41719998384871 | 0.0433351286163553 | 0.0433351286163546 | 0.907182050858477 |
| 120 | -4 | -4.08172102881372 | 0.0434730981081382 | 0.0434730981081368 | 0.0928084891173171 |
| 121 | -2 | -1.90736567759174 | 0.0337996246426759 | -0.37179586873258 | 0.691831914271618 |
| 122 | 0 | -0.244174728666368 | 0.0410844295312428 | 0.0410844273729723 | 0.504550226554916 |
| 123 | -2 | -1.8272357373843 | 0.0396247819811099 | 0.0396247819811117 | -0.515723099584238 |
| 124 | -3 | -2.89421978398255 | 0.039088539157562 | 0.0390885391575617 | -0.351536476274835 |
| 125 | 1 | 0.517844873525544 | 0.0405608776113055 | 0.0405608776113104 | 1.07151137535178 |
| 126 | -2 | -1.73881422218506 | 0.0395712722831673 | 0.0395712722831687 | -0.729771213578388 |
| 127 | -1 | -1.11616046738097 | 0.0398219731225541 | 0.0398219731225575 | 0.185231217974403 |
| 128 | 1 | 0.723734791735128 | 0.0405954625328714 | 0.0405954625328783 | 0.571839767035987 |
| 129 | -3 | -2.5988372960291 | 0.039150962888517 | 0.0391509628885178 | -1.0683969573998 |
| 130 | -4 | -3.86738288377922 | 0.0385895421938868 | 0.038589542193885 | -0.415423525689453 |
| 131 | -9 | -8.43372506829562 | 0.0366134003829719 | 0.0366134003829652 | -1.46287519269989 |
| 132 | -9 | -8.96236646382178 | 0.0363709332806823 | 0.0363709332806745 | -0.17956773550934 |
| 133 | -7 | -6.94863837596453 | 0.0282178288860572 | -0.31039611625997 | 0.640721353543236 |
| 134 | -14 | -13.214595706373 | 0.00244987555483865 | 0.00244987337554617 | -1.95329978874025 |
| 135 | -12 | -12.1431378759721 | 0.00332958343552195 | 0.0033295834355133 | 0.339455655481409 |
| 136 | -16 | -15.5547510786886 | 0.00181422974697636 | 0.00181422974696265 | -1.08481220029195 |
| 137 | -20 | -19.4853969018709 | 0.000242277334359842 | 0.000242277334341862 | -1.24922910632672 |
| 138 | -12 | -12.8690512455669 | 0.00285238454685401 | 0.002852384546844 | 2.10174794791345 |
| 139 | -12 | -12.1030646359195 | 0.00315288082182329 | 0.0031528808218155 | 0.242426071002153 |
| 140 | -10 | -10.246532146841 | 0.0038822655141855 | 0.00388226551418095 | 0.588766044088886 |
| 141 | -10 | -10.0315969568473 | 0.00396528959651372 | 0.00396528959650791 | 0.0670455140677563 |
| 142 | -13 | -12.6584909566233 | 0.00293077048865397 | 0.00293077048864366 | -0.835749155843819 |
| 143 | -16 | -15.6143891675148 | 0.00176774320814621 | 0.00176774320813246 | -0.939935743627993 |
