Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.99801135679491 |
beta | 0.00177219161837201 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 4.44089209850063e-16 |
4 | 2.6 | 2.61 | -0.00999999999999979 |
5 | 2.61 | 2.61000219975844 | -2.1997584354061e-06 |
6 | 2.62 | 2.61998231381028 | 1.76861897225322e-05 |
7 | 2.64 | 2.62998230554521 | 0.0100176944547909 |
8 | 2.65 | 2.64998013706594 | 1.98629340579792e-05 |
9 | 2.66 | 2.66000005431658 | -5.43165841193627e-08 |
10 | 2.67 | 2.67000009382882 | -9.38288216012495e-08 |
11 | 2.68 | 2.68000009374145 | -9.37414452728547e-08 |
12 | 2.69 | 2.69000009357547 | -9.35754744801898e-08 |
13 | 2.69 | 2.70000009340964 | -0.0100000934096398 |
14 | 2.71 | 2.70000229300254 | 0.00999770699746483 |
15 | 2.72 | 2.7199802071307 | 1.97928693044247e-05 |
16 | 2.73 | 2.73000008464883 | -8.46488297234771e-08 |
17 | 2.73 | 2.74000012402841 | -0.0100001240284056 |
18 | 2.74 | 2.74000232364579 | -2.32364578733879e-06 |
19 | 2.74 | 2.74998243747823 | -0.00998243747823446 |
20 | 2.74 | 2.74998462875244 | -0.009984628752437 |
21 | 2.74 | 2.74996697362311 | -0.00996697362310783 |
22 | 2.74 | 2.74994931025241 | -0.00994931025241375 |
23 | 2.75 | 2.74993167810596 | 6.83218940413788e-05 |
24 | 2.75 | 2.75991187744856 | -0.00991187744856337 |
25 | 2.75 | 2.75991419369004 | -0.00991419369003665 |
26 | 2.75 | 2.75989666338542 | -0.00989666338541895 |
27 | 2.77 | 2.75987912461838 | 0.0101208753816207 |
28 | 2.78 | 2.77985721733789 | 0.000142782662114094 |
29 | 2.79 | 2.78987731273921 | 0.000122687260793786 |
30 | 2.8 | 2.79987756969474 | 0.000122430305256493 |
31 | 2.82 | 2.80987778674422 | 0.0101222132557788 |
32 | 2.83 | 2.82987580357202 | 0.000124196427983669 |
33 | 2.84 | 2.83989590572241 | 0.00010409427758562 |
34 | 2.87 | 2.84989612980657 | 0.02010387019343 |
35 | 2.89 | 2.87989191444714 | 0.0101080855528561 |
36 | 2.9 | 2.89992967033735 | 7.03296626456407e-05 |
37 | 2.9 | 2.90994975624218 | -0.00994975624217842 |
38 | 2.91 | 2.90995208480881 | 4.7915191193848e-05 |
39 | 2.92 | 2.91993228775348 | 6.77122465213564e-05 |
40 | 2.92 | 2.92993236814464 | -0.00993236814463971 |
41 | 2.92 | 2.9299346876812 | -0.00993468768119898 |
42 | 2.92 | 2.92991712113608 | -0.0099171211360809 |
43 | 2.94 | 2.92989954611402 | 0.0101004538859835 |
44 | 2.95 | 2.94987760264259 | 0.000122397357408488 |
45 | 2.95 | 2.95989766191712 | -0.00989766191711805 |
46 | 2.97 | 2.95990008256832 | 0.0100999174316798 |
47 | 2.99 | 2.97987817791235 | 0.0101218220876542 |
48 | 3 | 2.99989603648817 | 0.000103963511833172 |
49 | 3 | 3.00991614231142 | -0.00991614231142357 |
50 | 3.01 | 3.00991853036952 | 8.14696304756168e-05 |
51 | 3.03 | 3.01989879277914 | 0.0101012072208548 |
52 | 3.03 | 3.03989673277159 | -0.00989673277159309 |
53 | 3.04 | 3.03991899751084 | 8.10024891646499e-05 |
54 | 3.04 | 3.04989929862187 | -0.00989929862186578 |
55 | 3.05 | 3.04990163731348 | 9.83626865194154e-05 |
56 | 3.05 | 3.05988192950313 | -0.00988192950312605 |
57 | 3.09 | 3.05988429889719 | 0.0301157011028077 |
58 | 3.09 | 3.09985802253848 | -0.009858022538479 |
59 | 3.09 | 3.09992008044967 | -0.00992008044966708 |
60 | 3.1 | 3.0999026585382 | 9.73414618048452e-05 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 3.10988290962485 | 3.09301032857815 | 3.12675549067154 |
62 | 3.11976601282713 | 3.09590720420372 | 3.14362482145053 |
63 | 3.12964911602941 | 3.10041199581777 | 3.15888623624104 |
64 | 3.13953221923169 | 3.10574782756498 | 3.1733166108984 |
65 | 3.14941532243397 | 3.11161357252639 | 3.18721707234155 |
66 | 3.15929842563625 | 3.11785481929323 | 3.20074203197928 |
67 | 3.16918152883853 | 3.1243798822918 | 3.21398317538527 |
68 | 3.17906463204082 | 3.13112905906092 | 3.22700020502071 |
69 | 3.1889477352431 | 3.13806090827735 | 3.23983456220885 |
70 | 3.19883083844538 | 3.14514527875212 | 3.25251639813864 |
71 | 3.20871394164766 | 3.15235942611598 | 3.26506845717934 |
72 | 3.21859704484994 | 3.15968569413191 | 3.27750839556797 |