Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999946007209914 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 2.69 | 2.71 | -0.02 |
3 | 2.67 | 2.6900010798558 | -0.0200010798558017 |
4 | 2.66 | 2.67000107991411 | -0.0100010799141059 |
5 | 2.67 | 2.66000053998621 | 0.00999946001379115 |
6 | 2.67 | 2.66999946010125 | 5.39898745710587e-07 |
7 | 2.66 | 2.66999999997085 | -0.00999999997084933 |
8 | 2.72 | 2.6600005399279 | 0.0599994600721008 |
9 | 2.63 | 2.71999676046175 | -0.0899967604617475 |
10 | 2.63 | 2.6300048591762 | -4.85917619608145e-06 |
11 | 2.65 | 2.63000000026236 | 0.0199999997376397 |
12 | 2.66 | 2.64999892014421 | 0.0100010798557877 |
13 | 2.65 | 2.6599994600138 | -0.00999946001379515 |
14 | 2.62 | 2.65000053989875 | -0.0300005398987455 |
15 | 2.61 | 2.62000161981285 | -0.0100016198128534 |
16 | 2.61 | 2.61000054001536 | -5.40015359096202e-07 |
17 | 2.62 | 2.61000000002916 | 0.00999999997084311 |
18 | 2.61 | 2.6199994600721 | -0.00999946007210095 |
19 | 2.62 | 2.61000053989875 | 0.00999946010125141 |
20 | 2.65 | 2.61999946010125 | 0.03000053989875 |
21 | 2.64 | 2.64999838018715 | -0.0099983801871466 |
22 | 2.66 | 2.64000053984044 | 0.0199994601595574 |
23 | 2.67 | 2.65999892017335 | 0.0100010798266541 |
24 | 2.68 | 2.6699994600138 | 0.010000539986204 |
25 | 2.68 | 2.67999946004294 | 5.39957056400198e-07 |
26 | 2.71 | 2.67999999997085 | 0.0300000000291534 |
27 | 2.72 | 2.7099983802163 | 0.0100016197837043 |
28 | 2.72 | 2.71999945998464 | 5.40015357319845e-07 |
29 | 2.71 | 2.71999999997084 | -0.00999999997084311 |
30 | 2.7 | 2.7100005399279 | -0.0100005399278991 |
31 | 2.7 | 2.70000053995705 | -5.39957053291573e-07 |
32 | 2.7 | 2.70000000002915 | -2.91535684482369e-11 |
33 | 2.68 | 2.7 | -0.0200000000000018 |
34 | 2.67 | 2.6800010798558 | -0.0100010798558019 |
35 | 2.66 | 2.67000053998621 | -0.0100005399862049 |
36 | 2.64 | 2.66000053995706 | -0.0200005399570564 |
37 | 2.64 | 2.64000107988496 | -1.07988495567923e-06 |
38 | 2.63 | 2.64000000005831 | -0.010000000058306 |
39 | 2.61 | 2.6300005399279 | -0.0200005399279042 |
40 | 2.62 | 2.61000107988495 | 0.00999892011504633 |
41 | 2.61 | 2.61999946013041 | -0.00999946013040542 |
42 | 2.6 | 2.61000053989875 | -0.0100005398987517 |
43 | 2.58 | 2.60000053995705 | -0.0200005399570515 |
44 | 2.55 | 2.58000107988496 | -0.0300010798849559 |
45 | 2.53 | 2.55000161984201 | -0.0200016198420085 |
46 | 2.5 | 2.53000107994326 | -0.0300010799432613 |
47 | 2.48 | 2.50000161984201 | -0.0200016198420117 |
48 | 2.47 | 2.48000107994326 | -0.0100010799432613 |
49 | 2.47 | 2.47000053998621 | -5.39986209968646e-07 |
50 | 2.46 | 2.47000000002916 | -0.0100000000291556 |
51 | 2.46 | 2.4600005399279 | -5.3992790238766e-07 |
52 | 2.45 | 2.46000000002915 | -0.010000000029152 |
53 | 2.44 | 2.4500005399279 | -0.0100005399279026 |
54 | 2.42 | 2.44000053995705 | -0.0200005399570533 |
55 | 2.39 | 2.42000107988496 | -0.0300010798849555 |
56 | 2.37 | 2.39000161984201 | -0.0200016198420085 |
57 | 2.34 | 2.37000107994326 | -0.0300010799432617 |
58 | 2.32 | 2.34000161984201 | -0.0200016198420117 |
59 | 2.3 | 2.32000107994326 | -0.0200010799432615 |
60 | 2.29 | 2.30000107991411 | -0.0100010799141108 |
61 | 2.3 | 2.29000053998621 | 0.00999946001379115 |
62 | 2.29 | 2.29999946010125 | -0.00999946010125408 |
63 | 2.29 | 2.29000053989875 | -5.3989875015148e-07 |
64 | 2.29 | 2.29000000002915 | -2.9150459823768e-11 |
65 | 2.29 | 2.29 | -1.77635683940025e-15 |
66 | 2.28 | 2.29 | -0.0100000000000002 |
67 | 2.28 | 2.2800005399279 | -5.39927901055393e-07 |
68 | 2.28 | 2.28000000002915 | -2.91522361806074e-11 |
69 | 2.29 | 2.28 | 0.00999999999999845 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
70 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.25289989752046 | 2.32709902262374 |
71 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.23753417194622 | 2.34246474819797 |
72 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.22574344576418 | 2.35425547438002 |
73 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.21580333961188 | 2.36419558053232 |
74 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.2070458995219 | 2.3729530206223 |
75 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.19912855095062 | 2.38087036919357 |
76 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.19184778641764 | 2.38815113372656 |
77 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.18507100845968 | 2.39492791168452 |
78 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.17870611402487 | 2.40129280611933 |
79 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.17268604314549 | 2.40731287699871 |
80 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.16696017078772 | 2.41303874935647 |
81 | 2.2899994600721 | 2.16148916622677 | 2.41850975391743 |