Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.390930173502102 |
gamma | 0.0255606071067017 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 23.74 | 23.3455128205128 | 0.394487179487168 |
14 | 23.87 | 24.0316994590038 | -0.161699459003788 |
15 | 24.13 | 24.2355695947736 | -0.105569594773581 |
16 | 24.23 | 24.2951325881055 | -0.0651325881055271 |
17 | 24.27 | 24.3055036274701 | -0.0355036274701277 |
18 | 24.41 | 24.4245408548899 | -0.0145408548899404 |
19 | 24.39 | 24.427606395965 | -0.0376063959649535 |
20 | 24.34 | 24.4324882543989 | -0.092488254398912 |
21 | 24.31 | 24.3271651383932 | -0.0171651383931746 |
22 | 24.34 | 24.2233714345296 | 0.116628565470389 |
23 | 24.41 | 24.3377150598643 | 0.0722849401357486 |
24 | 24.39 | 24.2801400907198 | 0.109859909280225 |
25 | 24.54 | 24.4818376441156 | 0.0581623558843738 |
26 | 24.9 | 24.7641583973261 | 0.135841602673874 |
27 | 25.63 | 25.3143463119616 | 0.315653688038442 |
28 | 26.7 | 26.0085781963263 | 0.691421803673663 |
29 | 27.12 | 27.284709175333 | -0.164709175332952 |
30 | 27.68 | 27.7332360555093 | -0.0532360555093199 |
31 | 27.84 | 28.1411744750925 | -0.301174475092498 |
32 | 27.84 | 28.2230196186235 | -0.383019618623511 |
33 | 27.77 | 28.0541190259936 | -0.28411902599365 |
34 | 27.8 | 27.8059649925334 | -0.00596499253337157 |
35 | 27.82 | 27.8723830969674 | -0.0523830969673647 |
36 | 27.72 | 27.716071630448 | 0.00392836955199982 |
37 | 27.87 | 27.7963573486385 | 0.0736426513614532 |
38 | 27.83 | 28.0847298164458 | -0.254729816445767 |
39 | 28.07 | 28.0822315784398 | -0.0122315784397955 |
40 | 28.05 | 28.1582832186915 | -0.108283218691454 |
41 | 28.15 | 28.0317853745544 | 0.118214625445624 |
42 | 28.3 | 28.270915705257 | 0.0290842947430185 |
43 | 28.41 | 28.3010356336471 | 0.108964366352936 |
44 | 28.43 | 28.4932164256243 | -0.0632164256242902 |
45 | 28.43 | 28.4693365507201 | -0.0393365507201402 |
46 | 28.29 | 28.3868753727888 | -0.0968753727888085 |
47 | 28.19 | 28.2477538664964 | -0.0577538664963981 |
48 | 27.53 | 27.9693428041132 | -0.439342804113213 |
49 | 27.92 | 27.3163404454743 | 0.603659554525663 |
50 | 27.98 | 28.0519125131946 | -0.0719125131945866 |
51 | 27.92 | 28.2208830752678 | -0.300883075267787 |
52 | 27.89 | 27.8840921357828 | 0.00590786421716061 |
53 | 27.95 | 27.7922350314996 | 0.157764968500384 |
54 | 28.02 | 28.0068267846747 | 0.0131732153253132 |
55 | 27.97 | 27.9507265920274 | 0.0192734079726016 |
56 | 27.81 | 27.9478444820834 | -0.13784448208343 |
57 | 27.78 | 27.7147902481196 | 0.0652097518804169 |
58 | 27.56 | 27.6431993744029 | -0.083199374402895 |
59 | 27.52 | 27.4294242285323 | 0.090575771467698 |
60 | 27.18 | 27.2689996972539 | -0.0889996972539215 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 27.0729570301648 | 26.6646468062822 | 27.4812672540474 |
62 | 27.075497393663 | 26.3760241120655 | 27.7749706752605 |
63 | 27.2151210904944 | 26.205866668014 | 28.2243755129749 |
64 | 27.1955781206593 | 25.8518260293564 | 28.5393302119622 |
65 | 27.1118684841574 | 25.4085053274895 | 28.8152316408253 |
66 | 27.1210755143222 | 25.0337611723493 | 29.2083898562951 |
67 | 26.999032544487 | 24.5044518923355 | 29.4936131966385 |
68 | 26.9165729079852 | 23.9924391835784 | 29.8407066323919 |
69 | 26.8149466048167 | 23.4399332748207 | 30.1899599348126 |
70 | 26.6462369683148 | 22.7998931148 | 30.4925808218296 |
71 | 26.5162773318129 | 22.1789447627392 | 30.8536099008867 |
72 | 26.2304843619778 | 21.3832221558916 | 31.0777465680639 |