Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 97.34 | 97.81 | -0.469999999999999 |
4 | 97.02 | 97.34 | -0.320000000000007 |
5 | 96.96 | 97.02 | -0.0600000000000023 |
6 | 96.89 | 96.96 | -0.0699999999999932 |
7 | 96.89 | 96.89 | 0 |
8 | 96.87 | 96.89 | -0.019999999999996 |
9 | 96.63 | 96.87 | -0.240000000000009 |
10 | 96.35 | 96.63 | -0.280000000000001 |
11 | 96.34 | 96.35 | -0.00999999999999091 |
12 | 96.39 | 96.34 | 0.0499999999999972 |
13 | 96.39 | 96.39 | 0 |
14 | 96.31 | 96.39 | -0.0799999999999983 |
15 | 96.28 | 96.31 | -0.0300000000000011 |
16 | 96.28 | 96.28 | 0 |
17 | 96.7 | 96.28 | 0.420000000000002 |
18 | 96.66 | 96.7 | -0.0400000000000063 |
19 | 96.66 | 96.66 | 0 |
20 | 96.66 | 96.66 | 0 |
21 | 96.72 | 96.66 | 0.0600000000000023 |
22 | 96.88 | 96.72 | 0.159999999999997 |
23 | 96.77 | 96.88 | -0.109999999999999 |
24 | 96.74 | 96.77 | -0.0300000000000011 |
25 | 96.74 | 96.74 | 0 |
26 | 96.62 | 96.74 | -0.11999999999999 |
27 | 97.04 | 96.62 | 0.420000000000002 |
28 | 96.93 | 97.04 | -0.109999999999999 |
29 | 96.24 | 96.93 | -0.690000000000012 |
30 | 96.21 | 96.24 | -0.0300000000000011 |
31 | 96.21 | 96.21 | 0 |
32 | 96.18 | 96.21 | -0.0299999999999869 |
33 | 96.2 | 96.18 | 0.019999999999996 |
34 | 96.51 | 96.2 | 0.310000000000002 |
35 | 96.69 | 96.51 | 0.179999999999993 |
36 | 96.77 | 96.69 | 0.0799999999999983 |
37 | 96.77 | 96.77 | 0 |
38 | 96.66 | 96.77 | -0.109999999999999 |
39 | 96.75 | 96.66 | 0.0900000000000034 |
40 | 96.98 | 96.75 | 0.230000000000004 |
41 | 96.33 | 96.98 | -0.650000000000006 |
42 | 96.37 | 96.33 | 0.0400000000000063 |
43 | 96.37 | 96.37 | 0 |
44 | 96.37 | 96.37 | 0 |
45 | 96.44 | 96.37 | 0.0699999999999932 |
46 | 96.65 | 96.44 | 0.210000000000008 |
47 | 97.31 | 96.65 | 0.659999999999997 |
48 | 97.41 | 97.31 | 0.0999999999999943 |
49 | 97.41 | 97.41 | 0 |
50 | 97.48 | 97.41 | 0.0700000000000074 |
51 | 97.29 | 97.48 | -0.189999999999998 |
52 | 97.15 | 97.29 | -0.140000000000001 |
53 | 97.23 | 97.15 | 0.0799999999999983 |
54 | 97.15 | 97.23 | -0.0799999999999983 |
55 | 97.15 | 97.15 | 0 |
56 | 97.26 | 97.15 | 0.109999999999999 |
57 | 96.99 | 97.26 | -0.27000000000001 |
58 | 97.71 | 96.99 | 0.719999999999999 |
59 | 97.89 | 97.71 | 0.180000000000007 |
60 | 97.81 | 97.89 | -0.0799999999999983 |
61 | 97.81 | 97.81 | 0 |
62 | 97.78 | 97.81 | -0.0300000000000011 |
63 | 98 | 97.78 | 0.219999999999999 |
64 | 98.72 | 98 | 0.719999999999999 |
65 | 98.85 | 98.72 | 0.129999999999995 |
66 | 98.93 | 98.85 | 0.0800000000000125 |
67 | 98.93 | 98.93 | 0 |
68 | 98.95 | 98.93 | 0.019999999999996 |
69 | 99.41 | 98.95 | 0.459999999999994 |
70 | 99.47 | 99.41 | 0.0600000000000023 |
71 | 99.57 | 99.47 | 0.0999999999999943 |
72 | 99.63 | 99.57 | 0.0600000000000023 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 99.63 | 99.1584100478961 | 100.101589952104 |
74 | 99.63 | 98.9630710938558 | 100.296928906144 |
75 | 99.63 | 98.813182242617 | 100.446817757383 |
76 | 99.63 | 98.6868200957922 | 100.573179904208 |
77 | 99.63 | 98.5754928095898 | 100.68450719041 |
78 | 99.63 | 98.4748452495218 | 100.785154750478 |
79 | 99.63 | 98.3822902659362 | 100.877709734064 |
80 | 99.63 | 98.2961421877115 | 100.963857812288 |
81 | 99.63 | 98.2152301436883 | 101.044769856312 |
82 | 99.63 | 98.1387016297019 | 101.121298370298 |
83 | 99.63 | 98.0659130739697 | 101.19408692603 |
84 | 99.63 | 97.9963644852341 | 101.263635514766 |