| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.70702730712811 |
| beta | 0.214052040509199 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 593 | 592.132745726496 | 0.867254273504045 |
| 14 | 590 | 589.664902095195 | 0.335097904804911 |
| 15 | 580 | 580.163189976863 | -0.163189976862554 |
| 16 | 574 | 575.159477444201 | -1.15947744420134 |
| 17 | 573 | 575.150886410478 | -2.15088641047782 |
| 18 | 573 | 575.782492310564 | -2.78249231056361 |
| 19 | 620 | 614.338098097695 | 5.66190190230463 |
| 20 | 626 | 625.929330363792 | 0.0706696362075263 |
| 21 | 620 | 624.828103925079 | -4.82810392507872 |
| 22 | 588 | 604.532622479778 | -16.5326224797777 |
| 23 | 566 | 572.043002502477 | -6.04300250247718 |
| 24 | 557 | 564.930278437654 | -7.93027843765424 |
| 25 | 561 | 549.828773840576 | 11.1712261594238 |
| 26 | 549 | 550.804892655077 | -1.80489265507674 |
| 27 | 532 | 535.634976730147 | -3.63497673014683 |
| 28 | 526 | 523.350121413459 | 2.64987858654069 |
| 29 | 511 | 521.786294009957 | -10.7862940099566 |
| 30 | 499 | 510.862400202496 | -11.8624002024964 |
| 31 | 555 | 538.833093579481 | 16.1669064205192 |
| 32 | 565 | 551.164260115167 | 13.8357398848331 |
| 33 | 542 | 555.394009442529 | -13.3940094425293 |
| 34 | 527 | 521.350627059923 | 5.64937294007689 |
| 35 | 510 | 506.712025610772 | 3.28797438922817 |
| 36 | 514 | 506.150362519375 | 7.84963748062455 |
| 37 | 517 | 510.696776981437 | 6.3032230185629 |
| 38 | 508 | 506.587577832989 | 1.41242216701062 |
| 39 | 493 | 495.801278821318 | -2.80127882131831 |
| 40 | 490 | 488.718386189822 | 1.28161381017793 |
| 41 | 469 | 484.81487700596 | -15.8148770059602 |
| 42 | 478 | 471.823489464741 | 6.1765105352585 |
| 43 | 528 | 525.293148510488 | 2.70685148951202 |
| 44 | 534 | 529.920808964761 | 4.07919103523886 |
| 45 | 518 | 520.294364967721 | -2.29436496772064 |
| 46 | 506 | 502.377278742514 | 3.62272125748643 |
| 47 | 502 | 488.006592557408 | 13.9934074425921 |
| 48 | 516 | 500.363211393369 | 15.6367886066308 |
| 49 | 528 | 515.153615259091 | 12.8463847409091 |
| 50 | 533 | 520.419303417804 | 12.5806965821955 |
| 51 | 536 | 524.166558228917 | 11.8334417710831 |
| 52 | 537 | 538.713594848931 | -1.71359484893128 |
| 53 | 524 | 537.316895722232 | -13.3168957222322 |
| 54 | 536 | 542.545880592666 | -6.54588059266575 |
| 55 | 587 | 594.089886960978 | -7.08988696097776 |
| 56 | 597 | 598.796339792836 | -1.79633979283631 |
| 57 | 581 | 588.862546578889 | -7.86254657888912 |
| 58 | 564 | 573.613545820318 | -9.61354582031834 |
| 59 | 558 | 555.790997355303 | 2.20900264469674 |
| 60 | 575 | 561.381938797856 | 13.6180612021437 |
| 61 | 580 | 574.706772427217 | 5.29322757278305 |
| 62 | 575 | 574.190470513586 | 0.80952948641368 |
| 63 | 563 | 567.250945237047 | -4.25094523704695 |
| 64 | 552 | 561.877429576789 | -9.87742957678859 |
| 65 | 537 | 545.494166460954 | -8.49416646095415 |
| 66 | 545 | 551.03149046965 | -6.03149046964995 |
| 67 | 601 | 597.772469139743 | 3.22753086025682 |
| 68 | 604 | 607.87859092129 | -3.87859092129077 |
| 69 | 586 | 590.93433519012 | -4.93433519011978 |
| 70 | 564 | 573.924801089144 | -9.92480108914367 |
| 71 | 549 | 555.980901146756 | -6.98090114675642 |
| 72 | 551 | 553.661097003356 | -2.66109700335608 |
| 73 | 556 | 545.817698868594 | 10.1823011314062 |
| 74 | 548 | 540.964946425955 | 7.03505357404504 |
| 75 | 540 | 531.407072620465 | 8.5929273795349 |
| 76 | 531 | 529.872536081284 | 1.12746391871588 |
| 77 | 521 | 519.747195819481 | 1.25280418051898 |
| 78 | 519 | 532.444408124361 | -13.4444081243612 |
| 79 | 572 | 575.082033387783 | -3.08203338778344 |
| 80 | 581 | 576.115469226539 | 4.88453077346071 |
| 81 | 563 | 563.854139924973 | -0.85413992497331 |
| 82 | 548 | 547.681308752621 | 0.318691247379206 |
| 83 | 539 | 538.806540260422 | 0.193459739577634 |
| 84 | 541 | 544.874782533915 | -3.87478253391453 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 541.802353288173 | 526.362112601255 | 557.24259397509 |
| 86 | 529.153695121077 | 508.805381990287 | 549.502008251867 |
| 87 | 514.338888137682 | 488.704801009725 | 539.972975265639 |
| 88 | 502.501908571381 | 471.221252753504 | 533.782564389259 |
| 89 | 489.405678908764 | 452.135133797526 | 526.676224020002 |
| 90 | 494.511179500654 | 450.923688113306 | 538.098670888003 |
| 91 | 549.324883487293 | 499.108076389089 | 599.541690585496 |
| 92 | 554.97244596653 | 497.827112551994 | 612.117779381065 |
| 93 | 536.938177333632 | 472.576897651789 | 601.299457015476 |
| 94 | 521.203951116235 | 449.349904898239 | 593.057997334231 |
| 95 | 511.510036057931 | 431.89597507006 | 591.124097045802 |
| 96 | 515.663201058625 | 428.030563082734 | 603.295839034516 |
