Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.111979586853965 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 0.324308302608781 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 2.67 | 2.64400427350427 | 0.0259957264957262 |
14 | 2.449 | 2.42448898216595 | 0.0245110178340484 |
15 | 2.62 | 2.60859910043176 | 0.0114008995682364 |
16 | 2.205 | 2.20149115307056 | 0.00350884692943687 |
17 | 2.589 | 2.58787445691544 | 0.00112554308456048 |
18 | 2.706 | 2.72132421271375 | -0.0153242127137529 |
19 | 2.352 | 2.28693193165392 | 0.0650680683460774 |
20 | 2.478 | 2.55450027834675 | -0.076500278346753 |
21 | 2.316 | 2.45717419339866 | -0.141174193398656 |
22 | 2.295 | 2.22714761682948 | 0.0678523831705169 |
23 | 2.11 | 2.14690274994603 | -0.0369027499460262 |
24 | 1.944 | 2.23888577986868 | -0.29488577986868 |
25 | 2.202 | 2.62796654816314 | -0.425966548163141 |
26 | 2.036 | 2.35741312323475 | -0.32141312323475 |
27 | 2.434 | 2.49901118477069 | -0.065011184770694 |
28 | 2.297 | 2.08107379265047 | 0.215926207349529 |
29 | 2.354 | 2.49055713137858 | -0.136557131378579 |
30 | 2.65 | 2.60385183363909 | 0.0461481663609118 |
31 | 2.555 | 2.19949556958161 | 0.355504430418386 |
32 | 2.477 | 2.45881625318805 | 0.0181837468119537 |
33 | 2.268 | 2.35346725070687 | -0.0854672507068654 |
34 | 2.51 | 2.18987677852466 | 0.320123221475341 |
35 | 2.015 | 2.1077124144383 | -0.0927124144382998 |
36 | 1.994 | 2.11914875108154 | -0.125148751081543 |
37 | 2.271 | 2.48948633761313 | -0.218486337613135 |
38 | 2.289 | 2.27227705197032 | 0.0167229480296811 |
39 | 2.333 | 2.52558125886148 | -0.192581258861478 |
40 | 2.795 | 2.17426645435281 | 0.620733545647186 |
41 | 2.332 | 2.52756743141206 | -0.195567431412065 |
42 | 2.799 | 2.6868719205406 | 0.112128079459403 |
43 | 2.294 | 2.37899631062758 | -0.0849963106275835 |
44 | 2.415 | 2.49184411240668 | -0.0768441124066848 |
45 | 2.473 | 2.34600323071184 | 0.126996769288155 |
46 | 2.236 | 2.32301136231877 | -0.0870113623187723 |
47 | 1.97 | 2.07636271309668 | -0.106362713096683 |
48 | 2.318 | 2.07692907672992 | 0.241070923270076 |
49 | 2.108 | 2.46139527620332 | -0.353395276203321 |
50 | 2.064 | 2.29681742835163 | -0.232817428351632 |
51 | 2.519 | 2.46190018761202 | 0.0570998123879756 |
52 | 2.298 | 2.37277304301364 | -0.0747730430136393 |
53 | 2.187 | 2.41310300793557 | -0.226103007935567 |
54 | 2.746 | 2.65760210227168 | 0.0883978977283224 |
55 | 2.364 | 2.29029887161839 | 0.0737011283816122 |
56 | 2.512 | 2.4232653181253 | 0.0887346818746972 |
57 | 2.224 | 2.35467050468976 | -0.130670504689762 |
58 | 2.209 | 2.24119244749588 | -0.0321924474958797 |
59 | 2.186 | 1.99510935589166 | 0.190890644108344 |
60 | 2.303 | 2.12902027195623 | 0.173979728043771 |
61 | 2.381 | 2.33477188384036 | 0.0462281161596394 |
62 | 2.432 | 2.2496692012925 | 0.182330798707501 |
63 | 2.913 | 2.54473404739681 | 0.368265952603195 |
64 | 2.392 | 2.45247277944104 | -0.0604727794410396 |
65 | 2.532 | 2.45082220325903 | 0.0811777967409695 |
66 | 2.709 | 2.82030434353269 | -0.111304343532691 |
67 | 2.387 | 2.42640598063757 | -0.0394059806375746 |
68 | 2.609 | 2.55103628885008 | 0.0579637111499225 |
69 | 2.399 | 2.41580873013904 | -0.0168087301390392 |
70 | 2.184 | 2.3434417987542 | -0.159441798754195 |
71 | 1.839 | 2.14735561072842 | -0.308355610728421 |
72 | 2.056 | 2.22049092225493 | -0.164490922254935 |
73 | 2.151 | 2.351549238157 | -0.200549238156998 |
74 | 2.155 | 2.27800906665074 | -0.12300906665074 |
75 | 2.463 | 2.59242999067113 | -0.129429990671134 |
76 | 2.155 | 2.32096344325143 | -0.165963443251429 |
77 | 2.679 | 2.34829435450496 | 0.33070564549504 |
78 | 2.367 | 2.69028512802864 | -0.323285128028637 |
79 | 2.052 | 2.29335542603824 | -0.241355426038238 |
80 | 2.547 | 2.42341324932022 | 0.123586750679782 |
81 | 2.466 | 2.27400023717634 | 0.191999762823656 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
82 | 2.18393835583229 | 1.81191265149754 | 2.55596406016704 |
83 | 1.96282034951651 | 1.58846941698792 | 2.33717128204509 |
84 | 2.11191713081937 | 1.73525532404269 | 2.48857893759605 |
85 | 2.2510105515573 | 1.87205196188881 | 2.62996914122578 |
86 | 2.22225878041932 | 1.84101724453586 | 2.60350031630279 |
87 | 2.54860503162949 | 2.16509413910878 | 2.93211592415021 |
88 | 2.28111064466328 | 1.89534374525213 | 2.66687754407443 |
89 | 2.4700629930573 | 2.082053203644 | 2.85807278247059 |
90 | 2.58667711724661 | 2.19643732855279 | 2.97691690594043 |
91 | 2.24954388125218 | 1.85708676425841 | 2.64200099824594 |
92 | 2.51172915615885 | 2.11706716827769 | 2.90639114404001 |
93 | 2.36817937780394 | 1.97132476881273 | 2.76503398679515 |