Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.312724386625416 |
beta | 0.0542931337928069 |
gamma | 0.338534322419725 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 100.84 | 100.49916525799 | 0.340834742009534 |
14 | 102.68 | 102.427838190486 | 0.252161809513609 |
15 | 101.27 | 101.093131748015 | 0.176868251985127 |
16 | 100.28 | 100.14965407151 | 0.130345928489618 |
17 | 100.82 | 100.721275411313 | 0.0987245886874604 |
18 | 100.87 | 100.789305531873 | 0.0806944681267083 |
19 | 101.23 | 100.867686465991 | 0.362313534008564 |
20 | 101.09 | 101.085903737432 | 0.00409626256788442 |
21 | 101.22 | 101.129044883835 | 0.0909551161647926 |
22 | 101.33 | 101.265255476072 | 0.0647445239283826 |
23 | 101.3 | 101.346654176889 | -0.0466541768887225 |
24 | 102.39 | 102.309337607906 | 0.0806623920944816 |
25 | 101.69 | 102.244954970182 | -0.554954970182038 |
26 | 103.75 | 103.909251470311 | -0.159251470310735 |
27 | 102.99 | 102.414905382323 | 0.575094617677351 |
28 | 100.8 | 101.582209326248 | -0.782209326248037 |
29 | 102.21 | 101.862731077766 | 0.347268922234306 |
30 | 102.45 | 102.004621112261 | 0.445378887739452 |
31 | 102.49 | 102.270030581238 | 0.219969418761963 |
32 | 102.4 | 102.364208077662 | 0.0357919223379497 |
33 | 102.99 | 102.442325139629 | 0.547674860370961 |
34 | 103.19 | 102.72836074719 | 0.461639252810429 |
35 | 103.35 | 102.926734527467 | 0.423265472532506 |
36 | 104.44 | 104.109547601279 | 0.330452398721349 |
37 | 103.42 | 104.001151028744 | -0.581151028744159 |
38 | 105.81 | 105.815366826904 | -0.00536682690410828 |
39 | 104.25 | 104.548013638874 | -0.298013638874437 |
40 | 103.78 | 103.121357453096 | 0.658642546904105 |
41 | 104.53 | 104.174281597895 | 0.3557184021046 |
42 | 105.01 | 104.384874713733 | 0.62512528626678 |
43 | 104.83 | 104.700617634199 | 0.129382365801092 |
44 | 104.55 | 104.766441608197 | -0.216441608196789 |
45 | 105.16 | 104.927765762765 | 0.232234237235048 |
46 | 105.06 | 105.130554262132 | -0.0705542621321911 |
47 | 105.2 | 105.178787079896 | 0.0212129201044036 |
48 | 105.87 | 106.252138235754 | -0.382138235753715 |
49 | 105.41 | 105.706812186666 | -0.296812186666074 |
50 | 107.89 | 107.794375532621 | 0.0956244673789115 |
51 | 106.06 | 106.477405525427 | -0.417405525427426 |
52 | 105.5 | 105.225091984479 | 0.274908015521376 |
53 | 106.71 | 106.104885664831 | 0.605114335168594 |
54 | 106.34 | 106.466592273033 | -0.12659227303331 |
55 | 106.11 | 106.427068428748 | -0.31706842874766 |
56 | 106.15 | 106.259668689902 | -0.109668689902136 |
57 | 106.61 | 106.553283055398 | 0.0567169446017459 |
58 | 106.63 | 106.61818060155 | 0.0118193984496031 |
59 | 106.27 | 106.702850619722 | -0.432850619722217 |
60 | 105.59 | 107.533339337999 | -1.94333933799889 |
61 | 107.09 | 106.471048573232 | 0.618951426768078 |
62 | 108.53 | 108.929904058402 | -0.399904058402413 |
63 | 108.01 | 107.287359963229 | 0.722640036770898 |
64 | 106.52 | 106.522275375096 | -0.00227537509630338 |
65 | 107.27 | 107.3777552369 | -0.107755236899706 |
66 | 107.58 | 107.310783350737 | 0.269216649262802 |
67 | 107.36 | 107.32139345996 | 0.0386065400399644 |
68 | 107.23 | 107.290431820381 | -0.0604318203814813 |
69 | 107.54 | 107.619836502148 | -0.0798365021475433 |
70 | 107.64 | 107.607695872181 | 0.0323041278188327 |
71 | 108.23 | 107.571142974855 | 0.658857025144584 |
72 | 108.42 | 108.3909001902 | 0.0290998097998028 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 108.571422142245 | 108.115487526665 | 109.027356757826 |
74 | 110.650324455271 | 110.114979691957 | 111.185669218586 |
75 | 109.395005775587 | 108.78934770543 | 110.000663845745 |
76 | 108.228146246091 | 107.554933194476 | 108.901359297707 |
77 | 109.084548936368 | 108.337273931748 | 109.831823940989 |
78 | 109.153064062258 | 108.335688574532 | 109.970439549984 |
79 | 109.032466391367 | 108.146337918312 | 109.918594864422 |
80 | 108.973316724881 | 108.018153190804 | 109.928480258957 |
81 | 109.331602336911 | 108.304160643382 | 110.35904403044 |
82 | 109.381488069186 | 108.283736313577 | 110.479239824794 |
83 | 109.4917049052 | 108.322675830906 | 110.660733979494 |
84 | 109.96427935254 | 106.262994328608 | 113.665564376472 |