Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.651118695995578 |
beta | 0.0987662409783271 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 15.84 | 16.0296741452991 | -0.189674145299144 |
14 | 15.79 | 15.844969684387 | -0.0549696843870127 |
15 | 15.79 | 15.7906887959299 | -0.000688795929887576 |
16 | 15.75 | 15.7267069133177 | 0.0232930866823153 |
17 | 15.63 | 15.59567136071 | 0.0343286392900222 |
18 | 15.63 | 15.5965288876059 | 0.0334711123941336 |
19 | 15.63 | 15.6464805412797 | -0.0164805412797406 |
20 | 15.62 | 15.5749312330364 | 0.0450687669635688 |
21 | 15.59 | 15.5463561369909 | 0.0436438630090841 |
22 | 15.55 | 15.4367432660474 | 0.113256733952602 |
23 | 15.61 | 15.5622400127462 | 0.0477599872537908 |
24 | 15.58 | 15.6423286451481 | -0.0623286451481064 |
25 | 15.58 | 15.5401378164162 | 0.039862183583768 |
26 | 15.64 | 15.5677184570251 | 0.0722815429748938 |
27 | 15.56 | 15.6392479887488 | -0.0792479887487723 |
28 | 15.57 | 15.5514467297699 | 0.0185532702300737 |
29 | 15.46 | 15.4398354336761 | 0.0201645663239223 |
30 | 15.5 | 15.4489207634496 | 0.0510792365504216 |
31 | 15.5 | 15.5117920214539 | -0.0117920214539264 |
32 | 15.58 | 15.4839522345011 | 0.0960477654988825 |
33 | 15.69 | 15.5105351158843 | 0.179464884115687 |
34 | 15.78 | 15.5448406534 | 0.235159346600016 |
35 | 15.8 | 15.7658954327822 | 0.0341045672177689 |
36 | 15.79 | 15.8368422929549 | -0.0468422929548904 |
37 | 15.79 | 15.8195406847333 | -0.0295406847333037 |
38 | 15.79 | 15.8479324285317 | -0.0579324285317497 |
39 | 15.75 | 15.8081276170509 | -0.0581276170509106 |
40 | 15.71 | 15.7958737068586 | -0.0858737068585622 |
41 | 15.76 | 15.6377891067769 | 0.122210893223123 |
42 | 15.76 | 15.7516256113031 | 0.00837438869685592 |
43 | 15.76 | 15.7895314042989 | -0.0295314042988917 |
44 | 15.76 | 15.8113987314131 | -0.0513987314131139 |
45 | 15.78 | 15.7852313176801 | -0.00523131768008689 |
46 | 15.84 | 15.7209831201919 | 0.119016879808102 |
47 | 15.82 | 15.7910768196349 | 0.0289231803651422 |
48 | 15.86 | 15.8248816335647 | 0.0351183664352774 |
49 | 15.86 | 15.8667256192235 | -0.00672561922354475 |
50 | 15.87 | 15.9012778023946 | -0.0312778023946301 |
51 | 15.84 | 15.8816848112215 | -0.0416848112215469 |
52 | 15.84 | 15.874439032782 | -0.0344390327820108 |
53 | 15.89 | 15.8297310317952 | 0.0602689682048485 |
54 | 15.89 | 15.8668268621586 | 0.0231731378414395 |
55 | 15.89 | 15.9054017603756 | -0.0154017603755552 |
56 | 15.91 | 15.9340067035396 | -0.0240067035395501 |
57 | 15.95 | 15.9487098825896 | 0.00129011741036855 |
58 | 16.08 | 15.9394033543899 | 0.140596645610129 |
59 | 16.08 | 16.0008513666364 | 0.0791486333635874 |
60 | 16.09 | 16.0814855536583 | 0.00851444634173504 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 16.1016630428911 | 15.9576310815306 | 16.2456950042517 |
62 | 16.1427155172085 | 15.9656185043227 | 16.3198125300944 |
63 | 16.1525556195376 | 15.9428506216897 | 16.3622606173856 |
64 | 16.1903585496591 | 15.9479636329719 | 16.4327534663463 |
65 | 16.2187100538027 | 15.9432608428623 | 16.4941592647431 |
66 | 16.2173395369231 | 15.9083109137625 | 16.5263681600837 |
67 | 16.2395956266671 | 15.8963666224953 | 16.582824630839 |
68 | 16.2884450205993 | 15.9103362621462 | 16.6665537790524 |
69 | 16.3423670176615 | 15.9286635864824 | 16.7560704488406 |
70 | 16.3955009641637 | 15.9454669389494 | 16.845534989378 |
71 | 16.3496032944149 | 15.8624912896798 | 16.8367152991499 |
72 | 16.3546069308802 | 15.8296644957666 | 16.8795493659939 |