Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.361783247130432 |
beta | 0.596736008154211 |
gamma | 0.960681181919333 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 226.33 | 228.542465277778 | -2.21246527777777 |
14 | 226.22 | 227.217851197465 | -0.997851197464712 |
15 | 224.84 | 224.849738955453 | -0.00973895545342884 |
16 | 221.88 | 221.266589967982 | 0.61341003201764 |
17 | 222.37 | 221.497564378689 | 0.872435621310899 |
18 | 221.8 | 220.956849241168 | 0.843150758832252 |
19 | 221.8 | 222.001733048329 | -0.201733048329288 |
20 | 221.8 | 221.507126767825 | 0.292873232174685 |
21 | 221.9 | 221.223438889321 | 0.676561110679415 |
22 | 220.2 | 219.912541687047 | 0.287458312953277 |
23 | 219.95 | 219.669599391611 | 0.280400608389016 |
24 | 220.05 | 220.261722502614 | -0.211722502613611 |
25 | 220.05 | 218.937748844477 | 1.11225115552293 |
26 | 220.05 | 220.328693475143 | -0.278693475143086 |
27 | 220.62 | 219.749877312966 | 0.870122687033899 |
28 | 221.53 | 217.98034961989 | 3.54965038011017 |
29 | 221.61 | 221.179558582944 | 0.430441417055562 |
30 | 221.5 | 222.112697886485 | -0.612697886484824 |
31 | 221.5 | 223.327651849165 | -1.82765184916454 |
32 | 221.87 | 223.534465570384 | -1.66446557038449 |
33 | 222.27 | 223.341720791002 | -1.0717207910015 |
34 | 220.86 | 221.346149380093 | -0.486149380093281 |
35 | 221.49 | 220.838380781293 | 0.651619218707282 |
36 | 221.67 | 221.362593942551 | 0.30740605744856 |
37 | 221.67 | 221.249786249966 | 0.420213750033724 |
38 | 221.72 | 221.599735594715 | 0.120264405284559 |
39 | 221.67 | 222.017943928581 | -0.34794392858123 |
40 | 220.29 | 221.335975241881 | -1.04597524188083 |
41 | 220.75 | 219.853315712886 | 0.896684287113686 |
42 | 219.59 | 219.309428186678 | 0.28057181332241 |
43 | 219.59 | 219.28935016684 | 0.300649833159895 |
44 | 219.59 | 220.012392138797 | -0.42239213879688 |
45 | 219.82 | 220.546775300804 | -0.726775300804206 |
46 | 221.59 | 219.023837783842 | 2.56616221615846 |
47 | 220.9 | 220.965708254587 | -0.0657082545867524 |
48 | 221.01 | 221.512268203814 | -0.502268203813912 |
49 | 221.01 | 221.493807855098 | -0.483807855098235 |
50 | 219.69 | 221.455732092431 | -1.76573209243057 |
51 | 221 | 220.620323758018 | 0.379676241982395 |
52 | 219.82 | 219.64647667077 | 0.173523329230363 |
53 | 218.04 | 219.932236371583 | -1.89223637158264 |
54 | 217.97 | 217.535650087778 | 0.434349912222103 |
55 | 217.97 | 217.15075434849 | 0.819245651510272 |
56 | 217.53 | 217.297298891532 | 0.232701108468234 |
57 | 217 | 217.702683865209 | -0.702683865208598 |
58 | 217.18 | 218.033262768874 | -0.853262768874345 |
59 | 217.68 | 216.211991549427 | 1.46800845057342 |
60 | 217.71 | 216.464481185055 | 1.24551881494463 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 216.885709056408 | 214.773405139018 | 218.998012973798 |
62 | 216.137188395298 | 213.697769700084 | 218.576607090512 |
63 | 217.537691998249 | 214.577868713319 | 220.49751528318 |
64 | 216.499820222306 | 212.851928585556 | 220.147711859055 |
65 | 215.618508744544 | 211.145662139911 | 220.091355349178 |
66 | 215.903769300313 | 210.493205690574 | 221.314332910052 |
67 | 216.074734261618 | 209.630624276175 | 222.518844247061 |
68 | 215.865412266411 | 208.30371033043 | 223.427114202393 |
69 | 215.863013030374 | 207.108102339847 | 224.617923720901 |
70 | 216.75709863244 | 206.739621743143 | 226.774575521738 |
71 | 217.253568888563 | 205.908993229429 | 228.598144547697 |
72 | 217.107438110737 | 204.37507631862 | 229.839799902855 |