Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.544845042486155 |
beta | 0.135929694087167 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 68.98 | 68.3825049381052 | 0.59749506189479 |
14 | 68.94 | 68.7152800839447 | 0.224719916055307 |
15 | 69.21 | 69.1721992988999 | 0.0378007011000676 |
16 | 69.21 | 69.2511083283824 | -0.0411083283824354 |
17 | 69.67 | 69.7384745774128 | -0.0684745774128004 |
18 | 69.66 | 69.7327092881544 | -0.0727092881543996 |
19 | 69.66 | 69.7007462670907 | -0.0407462670907108 |
20 | 69.66 | 69.8839829511605 | -0.223982951160522 |
21 | 69.77 | 69.7933614557467 | -0.0233614557466666 |
22 | 70.32 | 70.2719973460174 | 0.0480026539826213 |
23 | 70.34 | 70.311423567835 | 0.0285764321649538 |
24 | 70.38 | 70.3660381739325 | 0.0139618260674581 |
25 | 70.38 | 70.6820898040141 | -0.302089804014102 |
26 | 70.29 | 70.3171074119522 | -0.0271074119522297 |
27 | 70.42 | 70.5038157355684 | -0.0838157355684359 |
28 | 70.29 | 70.419443099423 | -0.129443099422986 |
29 | 70.59 | 70.786329239954 | -0.196329239954039 |
30 | 70.64 | 70.6323862729729 | 0.00761372702707774 |
31 | 70.64 | 70.5882678316021 | 0.0517321683979048 |
32 | 70.68 | 70.676169802842 | 0.00383019715799549 |
33 | 70.78 | 70.7559265454912 | 0.024073454508752 |
34 | 70.9 | 71.2568641481657 | -0.356864148165684 |
35 | 71.04 | 70.9939882315442 | 0.0460117684557844 |
36 | 71.15 | 70.9803450454738 | 0.169654954526237 |
37 | 71.15 | 71.1787229546433 | -0.0287229546432997 |
38 | 71.15 | 71.047438731576 | 0.102561268423997 |
39 | 71.07 | 71.2509770075831 | -0.180977007583138 |
40 | 71.17 | 71.0552889949983 | 0.114711005001652 |
41 | 71.24 | 71.5104395467084 | -0.27043954670836 |
42 | 71.23 | 71.385215891376 | -0.155215891376031 |
43 | 71.23 | 71.2360824524713 | -0.00608245247124728 |
44 | 71.23 | 71.2306860415333 | -0.000686041533271009 |
45 | 71.24 | 71.2772724056362 | -0.0372724056362443 |
46 | 71.28 | 71.5278658861246 | -0.247865886124572 |
47 | 71.52 | 71.4714827178971 | 0.0485172821029067 |
48 | 71.52 | 71.4786561150071 | 0.0413438849928838 |
49 | 71.52 | 71.4706304605739 | 0.0493695394261238 |
50 | 71.6 | 71.4009365722162 | 0.199063427783841 |
51 | 71.61 | 71.4946975901271 | 0.115302409872882 |
52 | 71.78 | 71.583822348827 | 0.196177651173016 |
53 | 71.66 | 71.9039044042756 | -0.243904404275611 |
54 | 71.86 | 71.8426362155823 | 0.0173637844177108 |
55 | 71.86 | 71.8648105131592 | -0.00481051315924219 |
56 | 71.82 | 71.8720228215472 | -0.0520228215471832 |
57 | 71.8 | 71.8799078450693 | -0.0799078450692576 |
58 | 72.22 | 72.0152155622297 | 0.2047844377703 |
59 | 72.51 | 72.3790844150694 | 0.130915584930648 |
60 | 72.56 | 72.4697812343179 | 0.0902187656820672 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 72.5373564293533 | 72.2188030230879 | 72.8559098356186 |
62 | 72.550300551992 | 72.1757664573514 | 72.9248346466325 |
63 | 72.5237158374336 | 72.0892809570223 | 72.9581507178449 |
64 | 72.6058572113686 | 72.1074901868345 | 73.1042242359027 |
65 | 72.6224018744604 | 72.0569827223825 | 73.1878210265382 |
66 | 72.8373901571206 | 72.2004819795928 | 73.4742983346484 |
67 | 72.8606088281538 | 72.1504145551618 | 73.5708031011458 |
68 | 72.869666366051 | 72.0835099401659 | 73.6558227919361 |
69 | 72.9182688110156 | 72.0530977810523 | 73.7834398409788 |
70 | 73.2621616371634 | 72.3119675617556 | 74.2123557125711 |
71 | 73.4994225545667 | 72.4624609194899 | 74.5363841896435 |
72 | 73.5059516352304 | 69.3047027800952 | 77.7072004903656 |