Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0469378169412955 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 2.08 | 2.09 | -0.0100000000000002 |
4 | 2.08 | 2.08953062183059 | -0.00953062183058728 |
5 | 2.09 | 2.08908327524777 | 0.000916724752233478 |
6 | 2.09 | 2.09912630430637 | -0.00912630430637229 |
7 | 2.09 | 2.09869793550549 | -0.00869793550548925 |
8 | 2.1 | 2.09828967340097 | 0.00171032659903503 |
9 | 2.1 | 2.10836995239778 | -0.00836995239778071 |
10 | 2.1 | 2.10797708510433 | -0.00797708510432615 |
11 | 2.11 | 2.10760265814397 | 0.00239734185602547 |
12 | 2.11 | 2.11771518413716 | -0.0077151841371581 |
13 | 2.11 | 2.11735305023646 | -0.00735305023646005 |
14 | 2.13 | 2.1170079141105 | 0.0129920858894992 |
15 | 2.18 | 2.13761773425967 | 0.0423822657403328 |
16 | 2.2 | 2.18960706529055 | 0.0103929347094551 |
17 | 2.21 | 2.21009488695742 | -9.48869574202149e-05 |
18 | 2.21 | 2.22009043317078 | -0.0100904331707823 |
19 | 2.22 | 2.21961681026575 | 0.000383189734246336 |
20 | 2.22 | 2.22963479635535 | -0.0096347963553538 |
21 | 2.23 | 2.22918256004776 | 0.000817439952240484 |
22 | 2.23 | 2.2392209288946 | -0.00922092889459813 |
23 | 2.23 | 2.23878811862211 | -0.00878811862211482 |
24 | 2.23 | 2.23837562351897 | -0.00837562351897159 |
25 | 2.24 | 2.23798249003547 | 0.00201750996453143 |
26 | 2.25 | 2.24807718754886 | 0.00192281245113834 |
27 | 2.26 | 2.25816744016771 | 0.00183255983229458 |
28 | 2.27 | 2.26825345652565 | 0.00174654347435288 |
29 | 2.28 | 2.27833543546353 | 0.00166456453647301 |
30 | 2.29 | 2.28841356648903 | 0.00158643351097343 |
31 | 2.3 | 2.29848803021475 | 0.0015119697852457 |
32 | 2.3 | 2.30855899877575 | -0.00855899877575483 |
33 | 2.3 | 2.30815725805802 | -0.00815725805801781 |
34 | 2.32 | 2.30777437417255 | 0.0122256258274525 |
35 | 2.32 | 2.32834821835963 | -0.00834821835962929 |
36 | 2.32 | 2.32795637121448 | -0.00795637121447923 |
37 | 2.33 | 2.3275829165189 | 0.00241708348110325 |
38 | 2.34 | 2.33769636914086 | 0.0023036308591351 |
39 | 2.34 | 2.34780449654443 | -0.00780449654443105 |
40 | 2.34 | 2.34743817051431 | -0.00743817051430984 |
41 | 2.35 | 2.34708903902833 | 0.00291096097166932 |
42 | 2.35 | 2.35722567318154 | -0.00722567318154255 |
43 | 2.36 | 2.35688651585647 | 0.00311348414353052 |
44 | 2.37 | 2.36703265600525 | 0.00296734399475218 |
45 | 2.37 | 2.37717193665448 | -0.0071719366544758 |
46 | 2.37 | 2.37683530160467 | -0.00683530160467338 |
47 | 2.38 | 2.37651446746921 | 0.00348553253078521 |
48 | 2.38 | 2.38667807075709 | -0.00667807075708771 |
49 | 2.38 | 2.38636461669437 | -0.00636461669437027 |
50 | 2.39 | 2.38606587548107 | 0.00393412451893171 |
51 | 2.4 | 2.39625053469756 | 0.00374946530243747 |
52 | 2.41 | 2.40642652641356 | 0.00357347358644411 |
53 | 2.42 | 2.4165942574626 | 0.003405742537399 |
54 | 2.43 | 2.42675411558237 | 0.00324588441762952 |
55 | 2.43 | 2.43690647031098 | -0.00690647031097802 |
56 | 2.43 | 2.43658229567181 | -0.0065822956718109 |
57 | 2.43 | 2.43627333708251 | -0.00627333708251365 |
58 | 2.44 | 2.43597888033492 | 0.0040211196650759 |
59 | 2.44 | 2.44616762291366 | -0.00616762291366202 |
60 | 2.45 | 2.44587812815838 | 0.00412187184162249 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 2.45607159982434 | 2.4394513895116 | 2.47269181013707 |
62 | 2.46214319964867 | 2.43808072346327 | 2.48620567583407 |
63 | 2.46821479947301 | 2.43805636332055 | 2.49837323562546 |
64 | 2.47428639929734 | 2.43866289459936 | 2.50990990399532 |
65 | 2.48035799912168 | 2.4396305099927 | 2.52108548825065 |
66 | 2.48642959894601 | 2.44082443163272 | 2.53203476625931 |
67 | 2.49250119877035 | 2.44216671759792 | 2.54283567994277 |
68 | 2.49857279859468 | 2.44360797655746 | 2.5535376206319 |
69 | 2.50464439841902 | 2.44511488096009 | 2.56417391587794 |
70 | 2.51071599824335 | 2.44666389039368 | 2.57476810609303 |
71 | 2.51678759806769 | 2.44823779108017 | 2.58533740505521 |
72 | 2.52285919789202 | 2.44982365061418 | 2.59589474516987 |