Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.928320581576317 |
beta | 0.0868906738479239 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 2.32 | 2.31 | 0.00999999999999979 |
4 | 2.33 | 2.32008982982456 | 0.00991017017543649 |
5 | 2.34 | 2.33089564689363 | 0.00910435310637325 |
6 | 2.36 | 2.34168778637251 | 0.0183122136274876 |
7 | 2.37 | 2.36250487940205 | 0.00749512059794588 |
8 | 2.37 | 2.37388481676176 | -0.00388481676176289 |
9 | 2.38 | 2.37438716540642 | 0.00561283459357798 |
10 | 2.39 | 2.38415912399494 | 0.00584087600505967 |
11 | 2.4 | 2.394613917201 | 0.00538608279899977 |
12 | 2.4 | 2.40508097088342 | -0.00508097088341941 |
13 | 2.39 | 2.40542139989373 | -0.015421399893726 |
14 | 2.4 | 2.39491866869108 | 0.00508133130892263 |
15 | 2.42 | 2.40385891722542 | 0.0161410827745807 |
16 | 2.42 | 2.42436813916185 | -0.00436813916185175 |
17 | 2.44 | 2.4254858836704 | 0.0145141163295959 |
18 | 2.44 | 2.44530315804805 | -0.0053031580480476 |
19 | 2.44 | 2.44629588328978 | -0.00629588328977748 |
20 | 2.45 | 2.44585920019595 | 0.00414079980405502 |
21 | 2.46 | 2.45544511167527 | 0.00455488832473394 |
22 | 2.47 | 2.46578283827894 | 0.00421716172105935 |
23 | 2.48 | 2.4761472127148 | 0.00385278728520122 |
24 | 2.48 | 2.48648410593495 | -0.00648410593495408 |
25 | 2.49 | 2.48670202487701 | 0.00329797512299201 |
26 | 2.5 | 2.49626687358727 | 0.00373312641273493 |
27 | 2.51 | 2.50653680513513 | 0.00346319486487001 |
28 | 2.52 | 2.51683550328401 | 0.00316449671598917 |
29 | 2.52 | 2.5271121696963 | -0.00711216969629547 |
30 | 2.52 | 2.52727511048489 | -0.00727511048489271 |
31 | 2.54 | 2.52669996210748 | 0.0133000378925225 |
32 | 2.54 | 2.54629796042601 | -0.00629796042601027 |
33 | 2.54 | 2.54719472493914 | -0.00719472493914175 |
34 | 2.56 | 2.54667866071064 | 0.013321339289357 |
35 | 2.57 | 2.56628261236842 | 0.00371738763158103 |
36 | 2.58 | 2.57727087144918 | 0.00272912855081797 |
37 | 2.58 | 2.58756184734656 | -0.00756184734656262 |
38 | 2.58 | 2.58768954175184 | -0.00768954175183678 |
39 | 2.58 | 2.58707843791317 | -0.00707843791317231 |
40 | 2.59 | 2.58646367054886 | 0.00353632945113658 |
41 | 2.6 | 2.59598805902132 | 0.00401194097868185 |
42 | 2.61 | 2.60627758025516 | 0.00372241974484178 |
43 | 2.61 | 2.61659859228252 | -0.00659859228252291 |
44 | 2.62 | 2.61680613812625 | 0.00319386187374882 |
45 | 2.63 | 2.62636184527421 | 0.00363815472579443 |
46 | 2.65 | 2.63662346091592 | 0.0133765390840832 |
47 | 2.67 | 2.65700440294672 | 0.0129955970532838 |
48 | 2.68 | 2.67807996470912 | 0.00192003529087525 |
49 | 2.67 | 2.68902872919131 | -0.0190287291913065 |
50 | 2.68 | 2.67899542146382 | 0.00100457853618341 |
51 | 2.68 | 2.68764047733341 | -0.00764047733340867 |
52 | 2.68 | 2.6876438506648 | -0.00764385066479889 |
53 | 2.68 | 2.68702752111664 | -0.00702752111663951 |
54 | 2.69 | 2.68641648624757 | 0.00358351375243293 |
55 | 2.69 | 2.69594494826214 | -0.00594494826213587 |
56 | 2.69 | 2.69614840907788 | -0.00614840907788095 |
57 | 2.7 | 2.69566704759301 | 0.0043329524069895 |
58 | 2.71 | 2.70526525604153 | 0.00473474395846596 |
59 | 2.72 | 2.71561837167204 | 0.00438162832796163 |
60 | 2.71 | 2.72599711545577 | -0.0159971154557672 |
61 | 2.72 | 2.71616748621857 | 0.00383251378142813 |
62 | 2.73 | 2.72505524969031 | 0.00494475030969133 |
63 | 2.74 | 2.73537438065455 | 0.0046256193454548 |
64 | 2.74 | 2.74577036933842 | -0.00577036933842479 |
65 | 2.75 | 2.74605009591642 | 0.00394990408357776 |
66 | 2.75 | 2.75567196111724 | -0.00567196111724133 |
67 | 2.76 | 2.75590413681757 | 0.00409586318242816 |
68 | 2.75 | 2.76553436701048 | -0.0155343670104777 |
69 | 2.78 | 2.75568841115501 | 0.0243115888449887 |
70 | 2.79 | 2.7847933073382 | 0.00520669266179885 |
71 | 2.8 | 2.7965827195164 | 0.00341728048359746 |
72 | 2.81 | 2.80698662958894 | 0.00301337041105665 |
73 | 2.81 | 2.81725864732014 | -0.00725864732013592 |
74 | 2.82 | 2.81740943965716 | 0.002590560342838 |
75 | 2.82 | 2.82691241499682 | -0.00691241499682338 |
76 | 2.83 | 2.82703601075294 | 0.00296398924705832 |
77 | 2.83 | 2.83656715832947 | -0.00656715832947397 |
78 | 2.84 | 2.83672062268686 | 0.00327937731314476 |
79 | 2.84 | 2.84627935118597 | -0.00627935118597378 |
80 | 2.84 | 2.84645800774303 | -0.00645800774303096 |
81 | 2.86 | 2.84594989533168 | 0.0140501046683168 |
82 | 2.87 | 2.86561320093623 | 0.00438679906376693 |
83 | 2.88 | 2.87665971080668 | 0.00334028919332052 |
84 | 2.88 | 2.88700415977153 | -0.00700415977153446 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 2.88718067151393 | 2.87117530891994 | 2.90318603410792 |
86 | 2.89385928892889 | 2.87112239587849 | 2.91659618197929 |
87 | 2.90053790634385 | 2.87188261335373 | 2.92919319933397 |
88 | 2.90721652375881 | 2.87298227649077 | 2.94145077102685 |
89 | 2.91389514117377 | 2.87423567273917 | 2.95355460960836 |
90 | 2.92057375858873 | 2.87555011380273 | 2.96559740337473 |
91 | 2.92725237600368 | 2.87687298867251 | 2.97763176333485 |
92 | 2.93393099341864 | 2.87817196551634 | 2.98969002132094 |
93 | 2.9406096108336 | 2.87942610254908 | 3.00179311911813 |
94 | 2.94728822824856 | 2.88062134239063 | 3.01395511410649 |
95 | 2.95396684566352 | 2.88174802078708 | 3.02618567053997 |
96 | 2.96064546307848 | 2.88279939575601 | 3.03849153040095 |