Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.121705741499882 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 34.98 | 35.04 | -0.0600000000000023 |
4 | 34.93 | 35.12269765551 | -0.192697655510003 |
5 | 35.01 | 35.0492452444609 | -0.0392452444608722 |
6 | 35.03 | 35.1244688728834 | -0.0944688728834109 |
7 | 35.03 | 35.1329714686605 | -0.102971468660485 |
8 | 34.98 | 35.1204392497138 | -0.140439249713829 |
9 | 34.92 | 35.0533469866917 | -0.133346986691713 |
10 | 35.04 | 34.9771178927996 | 0.062882107200366 |
11 | 35.21 | 35.1047710062835 | 0.10522899371648 |
12 | 35.21 | 35.2875779789911 | -0.0775779789910729 |
13 | 35.21 | 35.2781362935339 | -0.0681362935339038 |
14 | 35.26 | 35.2698437154063 | -0.00984371540631201 |
15 | 35.45 | 35.3186456787237 | 0.131354321276341 |
16 | 35.53 | 35.5246322537938 | 0.00536774620618274 |
17 | 35.53 | 35.605285539326 | -0.0752855393260248 |
18 | 35.57 | 35.5961228569381 | -0.0261228569381302 |
19 | 35.57 | 35.6329435552644 | -0.0629435552643827 |
20 | 35.57 | 35.6252829631983 | -0.0552829631982874 |
21 | 35.63 | 35.6185547091699 | 0.0114452908300677 |
22 | 35.92 | 35.6799476667771 | 0.240052333222913 |
23 | 36.05 | 35.9991634139908 | 0.0508365860092397 |
24 | 36.1 | 36.1353505183863 | -0.0353505183863305 |
25 | 36.1 | 36.1810481573337 | -0.0810481573337185 |
26 | 36.02 | 36.1711841312482 | -0.151184131248222 |
27 | 36.07 | 36.0727841544516 | -0.00278415445164626 |
28 | 36.17 | 36.1224453068697 | 0.0475546931303441 |
29 | 36.52 | 36.2282329860589 | 0.291767013941119 |
30 | 36.49 | 36.6137427068358 | -0.123742706835792 |
31 | 36.49 | 36.5686825089451 | -0.0786825089451426 |
32 | 36.48 | 36.5591063958509 | -0.0791063958509071 |
33 | 36.62 | 36.5394786932865 | 0.0805213067135142 |
34 | 36.63 | 36.6892785986266 | -0.0592785986265838 |
35 | 36.7 | 36.6920640528257 | 0.00793594717433166 |
36 | 36.7 | 36.763029903161 | -0.0630299031610235 |
37 | 36.7 | 36.7553588020602 | -0.0553588020601481 |
38 | 36.69 | 36.7486213180069 | -0.0586213180068782 |
39 | 36.86 | 36.7314867670311 | 0.128513232968857 |
40 | 36.85 | 36.9171275653422 | -0.0671275653421617 |
41 | 36.83 | 36.8989577552271 | -0.0689577552271174 |
42 | 36.88 | 36.870565200495 | 0.00943479950497306 |
43 | 36.88 | 36.9217134697647 | -0.0417134697646873 |
44 | 36.92 | 36.9166367009964 | 0.00336329900355281 |
45 | 36.93 | 36.9570460337956 | -0.0270460337955569 |
46 | 37.06 | 36.9637543761978 | 0.0962456238021687 |
47 | 37.1 | 37.1054680212088 | -0.00546802120879875 |
48 | 37.09 | 37.144802531633 | -0.0548025316330438 |
49 | 37.09 | 37.1281327488846 | -0.0381327488845713 |
50 | 37.15 | 37.1234917744062 | 0.0265082255938438 |
51 | 37.27 | 37.1867179776579 | 0.0832820223421109 |
52 | 37.43 | 37.3168538779407 | 0.113146122059348 |
53 | 37.42 | 37.4906244106237 | -0.0706244106237151 |
54 | 37.4 | 37.4720290143608 | -0.0720290143607727 |
55 | 37.4 | 37.4432626697585 | -0.0432626697584837 |
56 | 37.39 | 37.4379973544563 | -0.047997354456264 |
57 | 37.42 | 37.4221558008421 | -0.00215580084213229 |
58 | 37.7 | 37.4518934275021 | 0.248106572497889 |
59 | 37.85 | 37.762089421879 | 0.0879105781210328 |
60 | 37.88 | 37.9227886439749 | -0.0427886439748661 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 37.9475810203321 | 37.7599190072577 | 38.1352430334066 |
62 | 38.0151620406643 | 37.7331550604804 | 38.2971690208482 |
63 | 38.0827430609964 | 37.7167157303973 | 38.4487703915955 |
64 | 38.1503240813285 | 37.7035528531234 | 38.5970953095336 |
65 | 38.2179051016607 | 37.6911634218277 | 38.7446467814936 |
66 | 38.2854861219928 | 37.6783814381934 | 38.8925908057922 |
67 | 38.3530671423249 | 37.6645864095609 | 39.041547875089 |
68 | 38.4206481626571 | 37.6494225447325 | 39.1918737805817 |
69 | 38.4882291829892 | 37.6326772618643 | 39.343781104114 |
70 | 38.5558102033213 | 37.6142214305757 | 39.497398976067 |
71 | 38.6233912236534 | 37.5939772034529 | 39.652805243854 |
72 | 38.6909722439856 | 37.5718995013114 | 39.8100449866598 |