Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.759709371745411 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 102.78 | 100.49766025641 | 2.28233974358974 |
14 | 102.78 | 102.217152072199 | 0.562847927800675 |
15 | 102.78 | 102.867829840894 | -0.0878298408939031 |
16 | 102.78 | 103.120014944058 | -0.340014944058154 |
17 | 102.78 | 103.180612660934 | -0.40061266093393 |
18 | 102.78 | 103.195173724393 | -0.415173724392815 |
19 | 102.78 | 100.777839278146 | 2.00216072185398 |
20 | 101.67 | 104.432809798689 | -2.7628097986893 |
21 | 101.67 | 104.477787558685 | -2.80778755868523 |
22 | 101.67 | 102.188595292892 | -0.518595292892158 |
23 | 101.67 | 101.638523845149 | 0.0314761548508073 |
24 | 101.67 | 101.506346831386 | 0.163653168613877 |
25 | 101.67 | 102.023010784586 | -0.353010784585763 |
26 | 101.67 | 101.327224337591 | 0.342775662408897 |
27 | 101.67 | 101.654359373975 | 0.01564062602462 |
28 | 101.67 | 101.924554243681 | -0.25455424368073 |
29 | 101.67 | 102.03551619209 | -0.365516192090283 |
30 | 101.67 | 102.073241484758 | -0.403241484758269 |
31 | 101.67 | 100.245834885578 | 1.42416511442215 |
32 | 105.79 | 102.316718966332 | 3.47328103366846 |
33 | 105.79 | 107.088505640518 | -1.29850564051839 |
34 | 105.79 | 106.496000440306 | -0.706000440305516 |
35 | 105.79 | 105.935732559522 | -0.145732559522358 |
36 | 105.79 | 105.700689322373 | 0.0893106776270116 |
37 | 105.79 | 106.03672508254 | -0.246725082540166 |
38 | 105.79 | 105.588875841951 | 0.201124158048543 |
39 | 105.79 | 105.729789419534 | 0.0602105804655366 |
40 | 105.79 | 105.968919206334 | -0.178919206334172 |
41 | 105.79 | 106.110678685153 | -0.320678685152529 |
42 | 105.79 | 106.173402417771 | -0.383402417770554 |
43 | 105.79 | 104.800176423501 | 0.989823576498978 |
44 | 104.47 | 107.033470518958 | -2.56347051895835 |
45 | 104.47 | 106.072464845879 | -1.60246484587871 |
46 | 104.47 | 105.391412435529 | -0.921412435528566 |
47 | 104.47 | 104.802121164252 | -0.332121164252328 |
48 | 104.47 | 104.481955444425 | -0.0119554444246575 |
49 | 104.47 | 104.660312138702 | -0.190312138702296 |
50 | 104.47 | 104.362934315619 | 0.107065684380629 |
51 | 104.47 | 104.398530577178 | 0.0714694228222186 |
52 | 105.5 | 104.588753165326 | 0.911246834673619 |
53 | 105.5 | 105.524658528031 | -0.0246585280306419 |
54 | 105.5 | 105.797199623122 | -0.297199623122452 |
55 | 105.5 | 104.819436036716 | 0.680563963283703 |
56 | 106.61 | 105.963959435141 | 0.646040564859149 |
57 | 106.61 | 107.672170068099 | -1.06217006809868 |
58 | 106.61 | 107.56523517549 | -0.955235175490472 |
59 | 106.61 | 107.091849621487 | -0.481849621486987 |
60 | 106.61 | 106.734866611444 | -0.124866611444133 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 106.784586191841 | 104.617867882716 | 108.951304500966 |
62 | 106.703247388025 | 103.982174969841 | 109.424319806208 |
63 | 106.648951397713 | 103.468730968419 | 109.829171827008 |
64 | 106.986668637439 | 103.405695466246 | 110.567641808631 |
65 | 107.005401952277 | 103.064217393454 | 110.9465865111 |
66 | 107.231187291242 | 102.960063012951 | 111.502311569533 |
67 | 106.714156470263 | 102.136813411839 | 111.291499528688 |
68 | 107.333353398612 | 102.469030593904 | 112.197676203321 |
69 | 108.140293953734 | 103.005003969487 | 113.275583937981 |
70 | 108.865995068775 | 103.473336160944 | 114.258653976606 |
71 | 109.232060741991 | 103.593768716021 | 114.87035276796 |
72 | 109.326923076923 | 103.453261200035 | 115.200584953812 |