Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.916133207303429 |
beta | 0.699524991426108 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 23.32 | 23.21 | 0.109999999999999 |
4 | 23.37 | 23.4112690409416 | -0.0412690409416285 |
5 | 23.43 | 23.4475078921467 | -0.0175078921466678 |
6 | 23.65 | 23.4942950467658 | 0.155704953234189 |
7 | 23.76 | 23.7995530174093 | -0.0395530174093146 |
8 | 23.81 | 23.9005808065984 | -0.0905808065984424 |
9 | 23.85 | 23.8968109023595 | -0.0468109023595211 |
10 | 23.83 | 23.9031409161468 | -0.0731409161467909 |
11 | 23.85 | 23.8384761833035 | 0.0115238166964851 |
12 | 23.71 | 23.8587607546785 | -0.148760754678495 |
13 | 23.74 | 23.6368687768708 | 0.103131223129221 |
14 | 23.87 | 23.7118358816083 | 0.158164118391738 |
15 | 24.13 | 23.9385812014757 | 0.191418798524285 |
16 | 24.23 | 24.3184645206575 | -0.0884645206574675 |
17 | 24.27 | 24.385244234642 | -0.115244234642045 |
18 | 24.41 | 24.3536349651128 | 0.0563650348872144 |
19 | 24.39 | 24.5153646337782 | -0.125364633778236 |
20 | 24.34 | 24.4302647804782 | -0.0902647804781758 |
21 | 24.31 | 24.3194741549919 | -0.00947415499193482 |
22 | 24.34 | 24.2766269156317 | 0.0633730843683047 |
23 | 24.41 | 24.3411306041005 | 0.0688693958995437 |
24 | 24.39 | 24.4548051544933 | -0.0648051544932997 |
25 | 24.54 | 24.4044851038071 | 0.135514896192909 |
26 | 24.9 | 24.6245307190136 | 0.275469280986435 |
27 | 25.63 | 25.1493299064919 | 0.480670093508138 |
28 | 26.7 | 26.1701616828343 | 0.52983831716568 |
29 | 27.12 | 27.5755892650754 | -0.45558926507535 |
30 | 27.68 | 27.7862658568886 | -0.106265856888623 |
31 | 27.84 | 28.2488678906543 | -0.408867890654253 |
32 | 27.84 | 28.172219863771 | -0.332219863771009 |
33 | 27.77 | 27.9528858575542 | -0.18288585755424 |
34 | 27.8 | 27.7531578149812 | 0.0468421850188356 |
35 | 27.82 | 27.7939104533305 | 0.026089546669521 |
36 | 27.72 | 27.8323706071786 | -0.11237060717858 |
37 | 27.87 | 27.6719692053092 | 0.198030794690798 |
38 | 27.83 | 27.922846468961 | -0.0928464689609889 |
39 | 28.07 | 27.8477400028573 | 0.22225999714275 |
40 | 28.05 | 28.2037501478798 | -0.153750147879798 |
41 | 28.15 | 28.1167528891192 | 0.0332471108808043 |
42 | 28.3 | 28.2223767082285 | 0.0776232917715056 |
43 | 28.41 | 28.4184005335261 | -0.00840053352606773 |
44 | 28.43 | 28.5302315261133 | -0.100231526113308 |
45 | 28.43 | 28.4936989141543 | -0.0636989141542799 |
46 | 28.29 | 28.4498130777207 | -0.15981307772066 |
47 | 28.19 | 28.2154563631661 | -0.0254563631661462 |
48 | 27.53 | 28.0878743805699 | -0.557874380569917 |
49 | 27.92 | 27.1150082710063 | 0.804991728993677 |
50 | 27.98 | 27.9065945105384 | 0.073405489461603 |
51 | 27.92 | 28.0749928026251 | -0.154992802625117 |
52 | 27.89 | 27.9348194458681 | -0.0448194458680753 |
53 | 27.95 | 27.8668566560402 | 0.0831433439598008 |
54 | 28.02 | 27.9694079105475 | 0.0505920894524969 |
55 | 27.97 | 28.0745602288666 | -0.104560228866642 |
56 | 27.81 | 27.9705640892967 | -0.160564089296692 |
57 | 27.78 | 27.7123621604319 | 0.067637839568107 |
58 | 27.56 | 27.7065698521649 | -0.146569852164898 |
59 | 27.52 | 27.4106042910789 | 0.109395708921053 |
60 | 27.18 | 27.4192444037512 | -0.239244403751165 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 26.9551620240069 | 26.5317547898814 | 27.3785692581324 |
62 | 26.7102593872006 | 25.9267589899937 | 27.4937597844075 |
63 | 26.4653567503943 | 25.2488610028542 | 27.6818524979344 |
64 | 26.220454113588 | 24.5103383711594 | 27.9305698560166 |
65 | 25.9755514767817 | 23.7183342096379 | 28.2327687439255 |
66 | 25.7306488399754 | 22.877804856848 | 28.5834928231027 |
67 | 25.4857462031691 | 21.9924930019345 | 28.9789994044037 |
68 | 25.2408435663628 | 21.0653696685622 | 29.4163174641634 |
69 | 24.9959409295565 | 20.0988737568077 | 29.8930081023052 |
70 | 24.7510382927501 | 19.0950567802232 | 30.4070198052771 |
71 | 24.5061356559438 | 18.0556769691042 | 30.9565943427835 |
72 | 24.2612330191375 | 16.9822637810749 | 31.5402022572002 |