Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.809356675163719 |
beta | 0.129073905393437 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 88.49 | 88.42 | 0.0699999999999932 |
4 | 88.33 | 86.2939676451458 | 2.03603235485417 |
5 | 87.7 | 85.971854539898 | 1.72814546010196 |
6 | 87.33 | 85.5810849938595 | 1.74891500614045 |
7 | 87.33 | 85.389829019791 | 1.94017098020896 |
8 | 87.33 | 85.5560508509838 | 1.7739491490162 |
9 | 85.47 | 85.7730587722573 | -0.303058772257259 |
10 | 86.1 | 84.2773668797722 | 1.82263312022775 |
11 | 86.1 | 84.6925226085202 | 1.40747739147982 |
12 | 86.13 | 84.9187039740225 | 1.21129602597746 |
13 | 83.31 | 85.112644894107 | -1.80264489410705 |
14 | 83.31 | 82.6789160198219 | 0.631083980178147 |
15 | 83.55 | 82.2808691964071 | 1.2691308035929 |
16 | 84.11 | 82.5318118965874 | 1.57818810341263 |
17 | 84.11 | 83.1977604888307 | 0.912239511169346 |
18 | 77.59 | 83.4200179097485 | -5.83001790974852 |
19 | 77.59 | 77.5763408094584 | 0.0136591905416452 |
20 | 76.44 | 76.4637097100836 | -0.0237097100835797 |
21 | 72.71 | 75.3183569633646 | -2.60835696336463 |
22 | 72.9 | 71.8086159338227 | 1.09138406617734 |
23 | 72.39 | 71.4072984332618 | 0.982701566738228 |
24 | 72.46 | 71.0206777407925 | 1.43932225920754 |
25 | 72.48 | 71.1539874831252 | 1.32601251687475 |
26 | 72.48 | 71.3341135492335 | 1.14588645076645 |
27 | 72.48 | 71.4881605028879 | 0.991839497112124 |
28 | 72.3 | 71.6211428513903 | 0.678857148609694 |
29 | 72.3 | 71.5717288991708 | 0.728271100829161 |
30 | 72.3 | 71.6383886300673 | 0.6616113699327 |
31 | 71.14 | 71.7202133032689 | -0.580213303268906 |
32 | 71.14 | 70.7363458451027 | 0.403654154897268 |
33 | 68.99 | 70.5909465504148 | -1.60094655041476 |
34 | 68.42 | 68.6558644876548 | -0.235864487654837 |
35 | 68.42 | 67.8009806899276 | 0.619019310072403 |
36 | 69.28 | 67.7026697835055 | 1.57733021649454 |
37 | 65.22 | 68.5447528887999 | -3.32475288879991 |
38 | 70.21 | 65.0719759260322 | 5.1380240739678 |
39 | 70.21 | 68.9853570601464 | 1.22464293985364 |
40 | 71.2 | 69.8593516129415 | 1.34064838705852 |
41 | 68.94 | 70.9672892317982 | -2.02728923179816 |
42 | 68.94 | 69.1375795840039 | -0.197579584003904 |
43 | 68.93 | 68.7681171410584 | 0.161882858941624 |
44 | 68.93 | 68.7064994143878 | 0.2235005856122 |
45 | 68.93 | 68.7181008031001 | 0.21189919689995 |
46 | 68.93 | 68.7424489671438 | 0.187551032856177 |
47 | 59.94 | 68.7666836433788 | -8.82668364337879 |
48 | 61.04 | 60.5730916804635 | 0.466908319536465 |
49 | 60.2 | 59.950106839586 | 0.249893160414025 |
50 | 60.2 | 59.1775848765983 | 1.02241512340167 |
51 | 60.12 | 59.1371171848017 | 0.982882815198273 |
52 | 60.25 | 59.1673324044137 | 1.08266759558633 |
53 | 58.03 | 59.391411950432 | -1.36141195043204 |
54 | 62.37 | 57.4951370146572 | 4.87486298534277 |
55 | 62.16 | 61.1554942940547 | 1.00450570594533 |
56 | 62.16 | 61.7882895978261 | 0.371710402173932 |
57 | 62.16 | 61.947759204726 | 0.212240795274042 |
58 | 62.16 | 62.0003331432209 | 0.159666856779133 |
59 | 62.29 | 62.0270359035472 | 0.262964096452784 |
60 | 64.39 | 62.1648139990796 | 2.22518600092036 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 64.1231876119675 | 60.1129557690035 | 68.1334194549315 |
62 | 64.2805920815296 | 58.8481362957376 | 69.7130478673216 |
63 | 64.4379965510917 | 57.6418797220787 | 71.2341133801046 |
64 | 64.5954010206538 | 56.4431093935267 | 72.7476926477808 |
65 | 64.7528054902158 | 55.2301716425156 | 74.2754393379161 |
66 | 64.9102099597779 | 53.992320562239 | 75.8280993573169 |
67 | 65.06761442934 | 52.7237846206992 | 77.4114442379809 |
68 | 65.2250188989021 | 51.4213582679994 | 79.0286795298049 |
69 | 65.3824233684642 | 50.0832710594437 | 80.6815756774847 |
70 | 65.5398278380263 | 48.7086011120419 | 82.3710545640107 |
71 | 65.6972323075884 | 47.2969481503759 | 84.0975164648009 |
72 | 65.8546367771505 | 45.8482410912452 | 85.8610324630558 |