Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.130443957892895 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 0 |
4 | 34.4 | 33.2 | 1.2 |
5 | 35.5 | 35.2565327494715 | 0.243467250528525 |
6 | 35.5 | 36.3882915812477 | -0.888291581247714 |
7 | 36.6 | 36.2724193116268 | 0.327580688373175 |
8 | 37.1 | 37.4151502331475 | -0.315150233147499 |
9 | 37.9 | 37.8740407894049 | 0.0259592105951256 |
10 | 38.1 | 38.6774270115787 | -0.577427011578671 |
11 | 39 | 38.8021051467941 | 0.197894853205909 |
12 | 41.5 | 39.7279193346929 | 1.7720806653071 |
13 | 41.8 | 42.459076550381 | -0.659076550381037 |
14 | 41.9 | 42.6731039965949 | -0.773103996594934 |
15 | 44.6 | 42.6722572514163 | 1.92774274858373 |
16 | 46.1 | 45.6237196453409 | 0.476280354659131 |
17 | 46.4 | 47.1858475398692 | -0.785847539869238 |
18 | 47.2 | 47.3833384764683 | -0.183338476468293 |
19 | 47.7 | 48.1594230799637 | -0.45942307996372 |
20 | 49.2 | 48.5994941150659 | 0.600505884934094 |
21 | 49.3 | 50.1778264794347 | -0.877826479434695 |
22 | 49.3 | 50.163319319114 | -0.863319319114041 |
23 | 49.5 | 50.0507045302034 | -0.550704530203404 |
24 | 50.1 | 50.1788684516541 | -0.0788684516541238 |
25 | 51.9 | 50.7685805386675 | 1.13141946133252 |
26 | 52.6 | 52.7161673712407 | -0.116167371240735 |
27 | 53.2 | 53.4010140395581 | -0.201014039558082 |
28 | 53.5 | 53.9747929726461 | -0.474792972646092 |
29 | 53.7 | 54.2128590981144 | -0.512859098114397 |
30 | 53.7 | 54.345959727515 | -0.645959727514978 |
31 | 53.9 | 54.2616981840185 | -0.361698184018515 |
32 | 54.1 | 54.4145168413325 | -0.314516841332455 |
33 | 54.8 | 54.5734900197251 | 0.226509980274912 |
34 | 55.4 | 55.3030368780544 | 0.0969631219456204 |
35 | 55.9 | 55.9156851314506 | -0.0156851314506241 |
36 | 56.8 | 56.4136391008241 | 0.38636089917587 |
37 | 58.4 | 57.3640375456877 | 1.03596245431231 |
38 | 59.3 | 59.0991725884566 | 0.200827411543372 |
39 | 60.3 | 60.0253693108717 | 0.274630689128273 |
40 | 60.5 | 61.0611932249205 | -0.561193224920473 |
41 | 60.8 | 61.1879889595192 | -0.38798895951917 |
42 | 61 | 61.4373781440207 | -0.437378144020741 |
43 | 61.1 | 61.5803248078188 | -0.480324807818825 |
44 | 61.3 | 61.6176693388128 | -0.317669338812799 |
45 | 61.4 | 61.7762312929568 | -0.376231292956831 |
46 | 61.5 | 61.8271541940204 | -0.32715419402038 |
47 | 63.9 | 61.8844789061111 | 2.01552109388889 |
48 | 63.9 | 64.5473914548146 | -0.647391454814588 |
49 | 64 | 64.4629431511425 | -0.462943151142539 |
50 | 64.1 | 64.5025550142281 | -0.402555014228099 |
51 | 64.5 | 64.5500441449025 | -0.0500441449025431 |
52 | 64.5 | 64.9435161885721 | -0.44351618857209 |
53 | 65.9 | 64.8856621815452 | 1.01433781845482 |
54 | 66.8 | 66.4179764212249 | 0.382023578775119 |
55 | 68.7 | 67.3678090888487 | 1.3321909111513 |
56 | 69.2 | 69.4415853439682 | -0.241585343968225 |
57 | 69.6 | 69.9100719955321 | -0.310071995532098 |
58 | 70.2 | 70.2696249772031 | -0.0696249772031337 |
59 | 70.6 | 70.8605428196086 | -0.260542819608574 |
60 | 70.7 | 71.2265565830182 | -0.526556583018234 |
61 | 70.7 | 71.2578704582748 | -0.557870458274792 |
62 | 71 | 71.1850996277059 | -0.185099627705895 |
63 | 72.1 | 71.4609544996634 | 0.63904550033655 |
64 | 73.7 | 72.644314124001 | 1.05568587599902 |
65 | 77.4 | 74.3820219679579 | 3.01797803204208 |
66 | 79.7 | 78.4756989672913 | 1.22430103270869 |
67 | 91.6 | 80.9354016396502 | 10.6645983603498 |
68 | 93.6 | 94.2265340591123 | -0.626534059112288 |
69 | 94.3 | 96.144806476687 | -1.84480647668698 |
70 | 97.3 | 96.6041626183215 | 0.695837381678515 |
71 | 101.7 | 99.6949304004375 | 2.00506959956255 |
72 | 103 | 104.356479614855 | -1.35647961485513 |
73 | 103.1 | 105.479535045092 | -2.3795350450924 |
74 | 104.6 | 105.269139075866 | -0.669139075865687 |
75 | 107.2 | 106.681853926429 | 0.518146073571032 |
76 | 107.7 | 109.349442951032 | -1.64944295103224 |
77 | 108.3 | 109.634283084181 | -1.33428308418107 |
78 | 108.8 | 110.060233917731 | -1.26023391773094 |
79 | 113.1 | 110.395844017631 | 2.70415598236875 |
80 | 113.8 | 115.048584826731 | -1.24858482673118 |
81 | 113.8 | 115.585714480167 | -1.78571448016736 |
82 | 116.5 | 115.352778815708 | 1.14722118429233 |
83 | 116.9 | 118.202426887565 | -1.30242688756533 |
84 | 117.6 | 118.432533169485 | -0.832533169485203 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
85 | 119.02393424778 | 116.007505961857 | 122.040362533704 |
86 | 120.447868495561 | 115.895256172758 | 125.000480818363 |
87 | 121.871802743341 | 115.939521312132 | 127.80408417455 |
88 | 123.295736991122 | 116.028995179117 | 130.562478803126 |
89 | 124.719671238902 | 116.124518848295 | 133.314823629509 |
90 | 126.143605486683 | 116.208066646159 | 136.079144327206 |
91 | 127.567539734463 | 116.270192976488 | 138.864886492438 |
92 | 128.991473982243 | 116.305591093019 | 141.677356871468 |
93 | 130.415408230024 | 116.311177670176 | 144.519638789872 |
94 | 131.839342477804 | 116.285154177066 | 147.393530778542 |
95 | 133.263276725585 | 116.226503803057 | 150.300049648112 |
96 | 134.687210973365 | 116.134703370661 | 153.239718576069 |