| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.23659807589547 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 8642 | 9676 | -1034 |
| 3 | 9402 | 9431.35758952408 | -29.3575895240847 |
| 4 | 9610 | 9424.41164032976 | 185.588359670242 |
| 5 | 9294 | 9468.32148913633 | -174.321489136333 |
| 6 | 9448 | 9427.07736021944 | 20.922639780556 |
| 7 | 10319 | 9432.02761653418 | 886.972383465822 |
| 8 | 9548 | 9641.88357583461 | -93.8835758346104 |
| 9 | 9801 | 9619.67090243395 | 181.329097566046 |
| 10 | 9596 | 9662.57301802194 | -66.5730180219434 |
| 11 | 8923 | 9646.8219700514 | -723.821970051396 |
| 12 | 9746 | 9475.56708464637 | 270.432915353633 |
| 13 | 9829 | 9539.55099207784 | 289.449007922161 |
| 14 | 9125 | 9608.03407042207 | -483.034070422074 |
| 15 | 9782 | 9493.74913876825 | 288.250861231745 |
| 16 | 9441 | 9561.9487379109 | -120.948737910898 |
| 17 | 9162 | 9533.33249923919 | -371.332499239194 |
| 18 | 9915 | 9445.47594440174 | 469.524055598256 |
| 19 | 10444 | 9556.56443254293 | 887.435567457071 |
| 20 | 10209 | 9766.52998028448 | 442.470019715523 |
| 21 | 9985 | 9871.2175355906 | 113.7824644094 |
| 22 | 9842 | 9898.13824774051 | -56.1382477405095 |
| 23 | 9429 | 9884.85604634096 | -455.856046340961 |
| 24 | 10132 | 9777.00138289137 | 354.998617108626 |
| 25 | 9849 | 9860.99337264483 | -11.9933726448271 |
| 26 | 9172 | 9858.15576375356 | -686.155763753564 |
| 27 | 10313 | 9695.81263028489 | 617.187369715115 |
| 28 | 9819 | 9841.83797442647 | -22.8379744264676 |
| 29 | 9955 | 9836.43455361982 | 118.565446380184 |
| 30 | 10048 | 9864.48691010106 | 183.513089898945 |
| 31 | 10082 | 9907.90575407278 | 174.094245927223 |
| 32 | 10541 | 9949.09611768363 | 591.903882316368 |
| 33 | 10208 | 10089.1394373547 | 118.860562645257 |
| 34 | 10233 | 10117.2616177765 | 115.738382223537 |
| 35 | 9439 | 10144.6450963178 | -705.645096317807 |
| 36 | 9963 | 9977.69082426394 | -14.6908242639402 |
| 37 | 10158 | 9974.21500350977 | 183.784996490227 |
| 38 | 9225 | 10017.6981800578 | -792.698180057816 |
| 39 | 10474 | 9830.1473158903 | 643.852684109705 |
| 40 | 9757 | 9982.48162211078 | -225.481622110785 |
| 41 | 10490 | 9929.13310416958 | 560.866895830417 |
| 42 | 10281 | 10061.8331325565 | 219.166867443475 |
| 43 | 10444 | 10113.6875916937 | 330.312408306312 |
| 44 | 10640 | 10191.8388719434 | 448.161128056639 |
| 45 | 10695 | 10297.8729325327 | 397.127067467296 |
| 46 | 10786 | 10391.8324325815 | 394.167567418523 |
| 47 | 9832 | 10485.0917206131 | -653.091720613098 |
| 48 | 9747 | 10330.5714761328 | -583.571476132778 |
| 49 | 10411 | 10192.4995877323 | 218.500412267716 |
| 50 | 9511 | 10244.1963648572 | -733.196364857193 |
| 51 | 10402 | 10070.7235156784 | 331.276484321572 |
| 52 | 9701 | 10149.1028944583 | -448.102894458329 |
| 53 | 10540 | 10043.0826118263 | 496.917388173702 |
| 54 | 10112 | 10160.6523097472 | -48.6523097471982 |
| 55 | 10915 | 10149.1412668731 | 765.858733126859 |
| 56 | 11183 | 10330.3419695387 | 852.658030461302 |
| 57 | 10384 | 10532.0792189427 | -148.079218942663 |
| 58 | 10834 | 10497.0439606607 | 336.956039339275 |
| 59 | 9886 | 10576.7671112298 | -690.767111229756 |
| 60 | 10216 | 10413.3329418209 | -197.332941820923 |
| 61 | 10943 | 10366.6443474753 | 576.3556525247 |
| 62 | 9867 | 10503.0089858941 | -636.008985894121 |
| 63 | 10203 | 10352.5304835793 | -149.530483579343 |
| 64 | 10837 | 10317.1518588768 | 519.848141123248 |
| 65 | 10573 | 10440.1469288243 | 132.85307117565 |
| 66 | 10647 | 10471.5797098413 | 175.420290158687 |
| 67 | 11502 | 10513.0838129659 | 988.916187034116 |
| 68 | 10656 | 10747.05948004 | -91.0594800400413 |
| 69 | 10866 | 10725.5149822705 | 140.485017729474 |
| 70 | 10835 | 10758.7534671575 | 76.2465328425387 |
| 71 | 9945 | 10776.7932501217 | -831.793250121707 |
| 72 | 10331 | 10579.9925676001 | -248.992567600073 |
| 73 | 9769 | 10521.0814051936 | -752.081405193623 |
| 74 | 9321 | 10343.1403918081 | -1022.14039180805 |
| 75 | 9939 | 10101.3039418112 | -162.303941811224 |
| 76 | 9336 | 10062.9031414684 | -726.903141468438 |
| 77 | 10195 | 9890.91925683463 | 304.080743165367 |
| 78 | 9464 | 9962.86417558442 | -498.864175584424 |
| 79 | 10010 | 9844.83387150797 | 165.16612849203 |
| 80 | 10213 | 9883.91185971229 | 329.088140287711 |
| 81 | 9563 | 9961.77348050438 | -398.77348050438 |
| 82 | 9890 | 9867.4244422989 | 22.575557701095 |
| 83 | 9305 | 9872.76577581325 | -567.765775813252 |
| 84 | 9391 | 9738.43348569654 | -347.433485696538 |
| 85 | 9928 | 9656.23139147908 | 271.768608520919 |
| 86 | 8686 | 9720.53132134392 | -1034.53132134392 |
| 87 | 9843 | 9475.76320126035 | 367.236798739648 |
| 88 | 9627 | 9562.65072124016 | 64.3492787598352 |
| 89 | 10074 | 9577.87563678 | 496.124363219997 |
| 90 | 9503 | 9695.25770652272 | -192.25770652272 |
| 91 | 10119 | 9649.76990308337 | 469.230096916632 |
| 92 | 10000 | 9760.78884116609 | 239.211158833912 |
| 93 | 9313 | 9817.38574107892 | -504.385741078917 |
| 94 | 9866 | 9698.04904523053 | 167.950954769465 |
| 95 | 9172 | 9737.7859179738 | -565.785917973797 |
| 96 | 9241 | 9603.92205841245 | -362.922058412445 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 97 | 9518.05539769204 | 8588.80267388731 | 10447.3081214968 |
| 98 | 9518.05539769204 | 8563.14766219447 | 10472.9631331896 |
| 99 | 9518.05539769204 | 8538.16410681959 | 10497.9466885645 |
| 100 | 9518.05539769204 | 8513.80189356957 | 10522.3089018145 |
| 101 | 9518.05539769204 | 8490.01684824127 | 10546.0939471428 |
| 102 | 9518.05539769204 | 8466.76979531207 | 10569.341000072 |
| 103 | 9518.05539769204 | 8444.0258001548 | 10592.0849952293 |
| 104 | 9518.05539769204 | 8421.75355285158 | 10614.3572425325 |
| 105 | 9518.05539769204 | 8399.92486255083 | 10636.1859328332 |
| 106 | 9518.05539769204 | 8378.51423905416 | 10657.5965563299 |
| 107 | 9518.05539769204 | 8357.49854391695 | 10678.6122514671 |
| 108 | 9518.05539769204 | 8336.8566974477 | 10699.2540979364 |
