Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.960953822848989 |
beta | 0.591847004487882 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 101.23 | 101.13 | 0.100000000000009 |
4 | 101.11 | 101.272969146435 | -0.16296914643533 |
5 | 101.55 | 101.070550398331 | 0.479449601669316 |
6 | 101.55 | 101.758147437761 | -0.208147437760672 |
7 | 101.55 | 101.666614190734 | -0.116614190733586 |
8 | 101.6 | 101.596717287551 | 0.00328271244879375 |
9 | 101.71 | 101.643902773966 | 0.0660972260344437 |
10 | 101.81 | 101.789042087785 | 0.0209579122147687 |
11 | 101.95 | 101.902724158993 | 0.0472758410069929 |
12 | 102.12 | 102.068584094798 | 0.0514159052024041 |
13 | 102.11 | 102.267664601778 | -0.157664601778237 |
14 | 102.25 | 102.176158602529 | 0.0738413974714547 |
15 | 102.35 | 102.349115560514 | 0.00088443948637007 |
16 | 102.42 | 102.452467264847 | -0.0324672648470283 |
17 | 102.34 | 102.505304165768 | -0.165304165767523 |
18 | 102.32 | 102.336476237564 | -0.0164762375636087 |
19 | 102.39 | 102.301294419421 | 0.0887055805788606 |
20 | 102.45 | 102.417637674204 | 0.0323623257964272 |
21 | 102.68 | 102.498243335758 | 0.181756664241874 |
22 | 102.77 | 102.825781914502 | -0.0557819145024609 |
23 | 102.83 | 102.893331613436 | -0.0633316134355653 |
24 | 102.83 | 102.91760732786 | -0.0876073278595442 |
25 | 103.21 | 102.86872961668 | 0.341270383319923 |
26 | 103.58 | 103.426076894518 | 0.153923105482107 |
27 | 102.5 | 103.890933953502 | -1.39093395350203 |
28 | 102.68 | 102.080178219697 | 0.59982178030296 |
29 | 102.7 | 102.523588043303 | 0.176411956697052 |
30 | 102.7 | 102.660452698468 | 0.0395473015319965 |
31 | 102.73 | 102.68828877904 | 0.0417112209595416 |
32 | 102.72 | 102.741927027692 | -0.0219270276919445 |
33 | 102.71 | 102.721941132008 | -0.0119411320076637 |
34 | 102.91 | 102.704759849701 | 0.20524015029919 |
35 | 103.1 | 103.013007549901 | 0.0869924500988475 |
36 | 103.1 | 103.257100551449 | -0.157100551448764 |
37 | 103.39 | 103.177282452919 | 0.212717547081496 |
38 | 103.38 | 103.573822945963 | -0.193822945963376 |
39 | 103.34 | 103.469462392917 | -0.129462392917219 |
40 | 103.33 | 103.35331922335 | -0.0233192233502137 |
41 | 103.33 | 103.325912218258 | 0.00408778174198687 |
42 | 103.33 | 103.327166954829 | 0.00283304517108718 |
43 | 103.48 | 103.328827206924 | 0.151172793075773 |
44 | 104.38 | 103.559012764643 | 0.82098723535745 |
45 | 105.76 | 104.899785415213 | 0.860214584786732 |
46 | 107.37 | 106.767490151318 | 0.602509848682445 |
47 | 108.16 | 108.730222566419 | -0.570222566418934 |
48 | 111.21 | 109.241706246492 | 1.96829375350794 |
49 | 112.77 | 113.312029635721 | -0.542029635721306 |
50 | 114.39 | 114.661775510838 | -0.27177551083787 |
51 | 114.37 | 116.116654157349 | -1.74665415734931 |
52 | 114.52 | 115.160854564283 | -0.640854564282634 |
53 | 114.54 | 114.903199204041 | -0.363199204040825 |
54 | 114.78 | 114.705792764955 | 0.0742072350445255 |
55 | 114.83 | 114.97091816349 | -0.140918163489729 |
56 | 115.86 | 114.949172523962 | 0.910827476037696 |
57 | 117 | 116.456127747943 | 0.54387225205744 |
58 | 117.27 | 117.919776568539 | -0.649776568539394 |
59 | 117.38 | 117.866831598749 | -0.486831598748623 |
60 | 117.83 | 117.69358976531 | 0.136410234689777 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 118.196836189428 | 117.195626348919 | 119.198046029938 |
62 | 118.568998677046 | 116.739232983593 | 120.398764370499 |
63 | 118.941161164663 | 116.15510508386 | 121.727217245466 |
64 | 119.31332365228 | 115.454164361597 | 123.172482942963 |
65 | 119.685486139898 | 114.646682746412 | 124.724289533383 |
66 | 120.057648627515 | 113.741012860257 | 126.374284394773 |
67 | 120.429811115132 | 112.743938030461 | 128.115684199803 |
68 | 120.801973602749 | 111.661059867273 | 129.942887338226 |
69 | 121.174136090367 | 110.49708803099 | 131.851184149744 |
70 | 121.546298577984 | 109.256046733088 | 133.83655042288 |
71 | 121.918461065601 | 107.941422728586 | 135.895499402617 |
72 | 122.290623553219 | 106.55627331683 | 138.024973789607 |