Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.112463488654287 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 0 |
4 | 1.44 | 1.45 | -0.01 |
5 | 1.44 | 1.43887536511346 | 0.0011246348865428 |
6 | 1.44 | 1.43900184547626 | 0.000998154523739858 |
7 | 1.44 | 1.43911410141622 | 0.000885898583784073 |
8 | 1.45 | 1.43921373266154 | 0.0107862673384578 |
9 | 1.44 | 1.45042679391598 | -0.010426793915983 |
10 | 1.45 | 1.43925416029671 | 0.0107458397032878 |
11 | 1.46 | 1.45046267491826 | 0.00953732508173633 |
12 | 1.46 | 1.46153527576939 | -0.00153527576938584 |
13 | 1.47 | 1.46136261330031 | 0.00863738669968583 |
14 | 1.46 | 1.47233400394142 | -0.012334003941417 |
15 | 1.46 | 1.46094687882909 | -0.000946878829089615 |
16 | 1.45 | 1.46084038953264 | -0.0108403895326372 |
17 | 1.45 | 1.44962124150743 | 0.000378758492574516 |
18 | 1.45 | 1.44966383800886 | 0.00033616199114217 |
19 | 1.44 | 1.44970164395913 | -0.00970164395913464 |
20 | 1.45 | 1.43861056323381 | 0.0113894367661915 |
21 | 1.44 | 1.44989145902634 | -0.00989145902634192 |
22 | 1.45 | 1.43877903103636 | 0.0112209689636416 |
23 | 1.47 | 1.45004098035209 | 0.0199590196479089 |
24 | 1.48 | 1.47228564133181 | 0.00771435866818559 |
25 | 1.5 | 1.48315322502037 | 0.0168467749796311 |
26 | 1.5 | 1.50504787210715 | -0.00504787210715207 |
27 | 1.52 | 1.5044801707997 | 0.0155198292002989 |
28 | 1.54 | 1.52622558493489 | 0.0137744150651147 |
29 | 1.55 | 1.54777470370728 | 0.00222529629271961 |
30 | 1.54 | 1.55802496829165 | -0.0180249682916491 |
31 | 1.55 | 1.54599781747469 | 0.0040021825253127 |
32 | 1.54 | 1.55644791688372 | -0.0164479168837153 |
33 | 1.57 | 1.54459812676988 | 0.0254018732301231 |
34 | 1.61 | 1.57745491005169 | 0.0325450899483095 |
35 | 1.62 | 1.62111504440585 | -0.00111504440584498 |
36 | 1.64 | 1.63098964262196 | 0.00901035737804068 |
37 | 1.63 | 1.65200297884672 | -0.0220029788467155 |
38 | 1.63 | 1.63952844708483 | -0.00952844708482736 |
39 | 1.67 | 1.63845684468421 | 0.0315431553157901 |
40 | 1.7 | 1.68200429797419 | 0.0179957020258124 |
41 | 1.69 | 1.71402815740479 | -0.0240281574047936 |
42 | 1.68 | 1.70132586699712 | -0.0213258669971161 |
43 | 1.67 | 1.68892748559604 | -0.0189274855960431 |
44 | 1.68 | 1.67679883453446 | 0.00320116546554172 |
45 | 1.66 | 1.68715884877047 | -0.0271588487704728 |
46 | 1.65 | 1.66410446988991 | -0.0141044698899113 |
47 | 1.65 | 1.65251823200047 | -0.00251823200047241 |
48 | 1.66 | 1.65223502284446 | 0.00776497715554147 |
49 | 1.67 | 1.66310829926469 | 0.00689170073530843 |
50 | 1.67 | 1.67388336397215 | -0.00388336397214561 |
51 | 1.65 | 1.67344662731212 | -0.0234466273121237 |
52 | 1.65 | 1.65080973780743 | -0.000809737807425437 |
53 | 1.65 | 1.65071867186871 | -0.00071867186870711 |
54 | 1.65 | 1.65063784752315 | -0.000637847523154544 |
55 | 1.66 | 1.65056611296547 | 0.00943388703452896 |
56 | 1.66 | 1.66162708081294 | -0.0016270808129446 |
57 | 1.67 | 1.6614440936284 | 0.00855590637160164 |
58 | 1.67 | 1.67240632070755 | -0.0024063207075482 |
59 | 1.67 | 1.67213569748596 | -0.00213569748595632 |
60 | 1.66 | 1.67189550949598 | -0.0118955094959754 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 1.66055769899874 | 1.63439220369056 | 1.68672319430691 |
62 | 1.66111539799748 | 1.62197567369971 | 1.70025512229524 |
63 | 1.66167309699621 | 1.61108482612385 | 1.71226136786857 |
64 | 1.66223079599495 | 1.60071886975557 | 1.72374272223433 |
65 | 1.66278849499369 | 1.59051908025079 | 1.73505790973659 |
66 | 1.66334619399243 | 1.5803164078168 | 1.74637598016805 |
67 | 1.66390389299116 | 1.57001956599964 | 1.75778821998269 |
68 | 1.6644615919899 | 1.5595752190722 | 1.7693479649076 |
69 | 1.66501929098864 | 1.54895070337935 | 1.78108787859793 |
70 | 1.66557698998738 | 1.53812549803177 | 1.79302848194299 |
71 | 1.66613468898612 | 1.52708661431472 | 1.80518276365751 |
72 | 1.66669238798485 | 1.51582592927498 | 1.81755884669473 |