Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.956068916392835 |
beta | 0.0405462289899447 |
gamma | 0.293993472656916 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 62.82 | 62.5880555555556 | 0.231944444444437 |
14 | 62.82 | 62.8286502379546 | -0.00865023795456921 |
15 | 62.55 | 62.5534678300148 | -0.00346783001480588 |
16 | 62.6 | 62.5726890641585 | 0.02731093584147 |
17 | 62.47 | 62.4123956277557 | 0.057604372244306 |
18 | 62.47 | 62.4095478371371 | 0.0604521628629229 |
19 | 62.47 | 62.7730161580507 | -0.303016158050667 |
20 | 62.72 | 62.5339039638134 | 0.186096036186619 |
21 | 63.13 | 62.9746307459506 | 0.155369254049376 |
22 | 64.09 | 63.5640868275765 | 0.525913172423522 |
23 | 64.31 | 64.1840287835082 | 0.125971216491791 |
24 | 64.29 | 64.4135652731942 | -0.123565273194188 |
25 | 64.29 | 64.3527333424018 | -0.0627333424018275 |
26 | 64.29 | 64.3331926827601 | -0.0431926827600506 |
27 | 64.35 | 64.0484175320301 | 0.301582467969894 |
28 | 64.42 | 64.3948759490367 | 0.0251240509632709 |
29 | 64.24 | 64.2679887321836 | -0.027988732183573 |
30 | 64.23 | 64.2151325784834 | 0.0148674215165983 |
31 | 64.23 | 64.5603450585548 | -0.330345058554812 |
32 | 64.2 | 64.3303829234862 | -0.130382923486181 |
33 | 65.35 | 64.4848301223322 | 0.865169877667753 |
34 | 65.83 | 65.8018986357011 | 0.0281013642988484 |
35 | 66.15 | 65.965643471771 | 0.184356528229003 |
36 | 66.19 | 66.2749514798159 | -0.0849514798158992 |
37 | 66.19 | 66.2804935449168 | -0.0904935449167823 |
38 | 66.56 | 66.2622593474634 | 0.297740652536561 |
39 | 66.59 | 66.3487039175662 | 0.241296082433792 |
40 | 66.48 | 66.672427838371 | -0.192427838370961 |
41 | 66.4 | 66.366900678645 | 0.0330993213549675 |
42 | 66.4 | 66.4054111302355 | -0.00541113023552953 |
43 | 66.4 | 66.7583999538617 | -0.358399953861706 |
44 | 66.49 | 66.5347330707572 | -0.044733070757232 |
45 | 66.65 | 66.8177807253501 | -0.16778072535007 |
46 | 67.69 | 67.1302791175733 | 0.559720882426717 |
47 | 67.91 | 67.8187281418311 | 0.0912718581688807 |
48 | 68.14 | 68.046375314919 | 0.0936246850809539 |
49 | 68.14 | 68.2403121846026 | -0.100312184602586 |
50 | 68.16 | 68.2350595539487 | -0.0750595539487335 |
51 | 67.94 | 67.967255474426 | -0.0272554744259992 |
52 | 68 | 68.0211165076036 | -0.0211165076035655 |
53 | 68.1 | 67.8814211020477 | 0.218578897952256 |
54 | 68.12 | 68.1030890759828 | 0.0169109240171963 |
55 | 68.12 | 68.4800492702919 | -0.360049270291853 |
56 | 68.24 | 68.265981699409 | -0.0259816994090443 |
57 | 68.42 | 68.5732196608156 | -0.153219660815608 |
58 | 68.97 | 68.9174518252923 | 0.0525481747077237 |
59 | 69.13 | 69.1037143921994 | 0.0262856078006308 |
60 | 69.2 | 69.2554972623938 | -0.0554972623938284 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 69.2848144236153 | 68.8430789341996 | 69.7265499130309 |
62 | 69.3601378370527 | 68.7370410785524 | 69.9832345955531 |
63 | 69.1519674913468 | 68.3794958648091 | 69.9244391178844 |
64 | 69.2202766982488 | 68.3141281306207 | 70.126425265877 |
65 | 69.0929952591827 | 68.0624543998136 | 70.1235361185518 |
66 | 69.0837382568657 | 67.9348141617233 | 70.2326623520082 |
67 | 69.4196624262188 | 68.1564411386874 | 70.6828837137503 |
68 | 69.548099305805 | 68.1734338005276 | 70.9227648110825 |
69 | 69.8734993081021 | 68.3894020334165 | 71.3575965827877 |
70 | 70.3677822521827 | 68.7756664011184 | 71.9598981032469 |
71 | 70.5023335602456 | 68.803170179993 | 72.2014969404982 |
72 | 70.6257779643749 | 68.8202029580618 | 72.431352970688 |