| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.20403309369351 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 13742 | 13610.9963300343 | 131.00366996571 |
| 14 | 13427 | 13239.9068014585 | 187.09319854149 |
| 15 | 11462 | 11242.8757523152 | 219.124247684769 |
| 16 | 11778 | 11485.7203055924 | 292.279694407618 |
| 17 | 20929 | 20230.2840525466 | 698.715947453416 |
| 18 | 22893 | 21852.9232983781 | 1040.07670162192 |
| 19 | 17666 | 16082.1173517449 | 1583.8826482551 |
| 20 | 14724 | 12978.5933936055 | 1745.40660639453 |
| 21 | 15387 | 13987.5305909727 | 1399.46940902726 |
| 22 | 15707 | 14597.0733206414 | 1109.92667935857 |
| 23 | 17351 | 15395.600443763 | 1955.39955623702 |
| 24 | 18964 | 16605.1239654664 | 2358.87603453359 |
| 25 | 19315 | 18365.158137745 | 949.841862254987 |
| 26 | 16022 | 18027.1165078794 | -2005.1165078794 |
| 27 | 16369 | 14939.4575668599 | 1429.54243314014 |
| 28 | 12093 | 15526.9281590739 | -3433.92815907391 |
| 29 | 24222 | 26101.8951676827 | -1879.89516768266 |
| 30 | 27800 | 27804.9038645905 | -4.90386459049478 |
| 31 | 19631 | 20993.4730598489 | -1362.47305984887 |
| 32 | 17004 | 16779.0146641708 | 224.985335829184 |
| 33 | 18649 | 17209.3839167694 | 1439.61608323058 |
| 34 | 20613 | 17573.6372095226 | 3039.36279047736 |
| 35 | 23555 | 19565.1753593483 | 3989.82464065171 |
| 36 | 27164 | 21617.097593498 | 5546.90240650197 |
| 37 | 27164 | 22894.5458695745 | 4269.45413042547 |
| 38 | 24853 | 20139.1884892835 | 4713.81151071647 |
| 39 | 23871 | 21100.7742114949 | 2770.22578850505 |
| 40 | 17982 | 16727.9453123051 | 1254.05468769486 |
| 41 | 27800 | 34438.0605139476 | -6638.06051394756 |
| 42 | 32391 | 37882.04810702 | -5491.04810702001 |
| 43 | 28462 | 26251.4058645631 | 2210.59413543695 |
| 44 | 24222 | 23012.2144580392 | 1209.78554196083 |
| 45 | 24853 | 25022.3333381055 | -169.333338105465 |
| 46 | 27164 | 26620.4728294818 | 543.527170518213 |
| 47 | 30426 | 29271.8070725472 | 1154.19292745275 |
| 48 | 34355 | 32284.8286391295 | 2070.17136087054 |
| 49 | 31724 | 31469.3140566699 | 254.685943330052 |
| 50 | 30111 | 27498.4709042432 | 2612.52909575683 |
| 51 | 30111 | 26201.8213077932 | 3909.17869220677 |
| 52 | 24853 | 20017.3335212111 | 4835.66647878889 |
| 53 | 32391 | 33770.7342503832 | -1379.73425038322 |
| 54 | 37297 | 40164.5706482887 | -2867.57064828866 |
| 55 | 33373 | 34149.7996503293 | -776.799650329347 |
| 56 | 29129 | 28590.3770677499 | 538.622932250095 |
| 57 | 30426 | 29459.2793815632 | 966.72061843682 |
| 58 | 35653 | 32246.5027642883 | 3406.49723571167 |
| 59 | 37964 | 36562.513962114 | 1401.48603788604 |
| 60 | 41222 | 41025.1425838211 | 196.857416178864 |
| 61 | 38595 | 37820.2898812772 | 774.710118722767 |
| 62 | 34355 | 35326.7509382632 | -971.750938263169 |
| 63 | 33373 | 34062.0869671078 | -689.086967107818 |
| 64 | 25520 | 26665.9064856926 | -1145.90648569263 |
| 65 | 30742 | 34727.4623545744 | -3985.4623545744 |
| 66 | 36315 | 39618.6772949453 | -3303.67729494531 |
| 67 | 30111 | 35001.6882023544 | -4890.68820235438 |
| 68 | 26502 | 29562.9722773953 | -3060.97227739526 |
| 69 | 30111 | 30026.9769177978 | 84.023082202235 |
| 70 | 33689 | 34465.0438852323 | -776.043885232306 |
| 71 | 35653 | 36254.3389658387 | -601.338965838673 |
| 72 | 40906 | 39204.2056440872 | 1701.79435591277 |
| 73 | 38280 | 36884.6975753514 | 1395.30242464865 |
| 74 | 31724 | 33279.1808024148 | -1555.18080241477 |
| 75 | 32391 | 32159.2666006519 | 231.733399348061 |
| 76 | 26186 | 24850.4085994634 | 1335.59140053664 |
| 77 | 31409 | 30991.7739080546 | 417.226091945377 |
| 78 | 36000 | 37343.9316194407 | -1343.93161944068 |
| 79 | 30742 | 31635.4168032464 | -893.416803246397 |
| 80 | 27164 | 28274.2709432499 | -1110.27094324993 |
| 81 | 30426 | 31839.5234701361 | -1413.52347013606 |
| 82 | 34355 | 35454.4327135437 | -1099.43271354368 |
| 83 | 33689 | 37401.7383848381 | -3712.73838483811 |
| 84 | 41542 | 41668.0958059479 | -126.09580594788 |
| 85 | 40244 | 38666.9961676192 | 1577.00383238075 |
| 86 | 35017 | 32619.312867546 | 2397.68713245399 |
| 87 | 35333 | 33747.5783739313 | 1585.42162606867 |
| 88 | 28462 | 27238.4283943431 | 1223.57160565693 |
| 89 | 32706 | 32872.4635454833 | -166.463545483319 |
| 90 | 39262 | 37908.4407650644 | 1353.55923493555 |
| 91 | 34355 | 32786.921108622 | 1568.07889137803 |
| 92 | 31409 | 29479.1146800464 | 1929.88531995362 |
| 93 | 36315 | 33750.317901805 | 2564.68209819503 |
| 94 | 39262 | 38923.3403238677 | 338.659676132338 |
| 95 | 36982 | 39003.0396996794 | -2021.03969967937 |
| 96 | 47431 | 47584.0086961646 | -153.008696164565 |
| 97 | 44835 | 45656.7060588895 | -821.706058889504 |
| 98 | 38946 | 38972.8461389797 | -26.8461389796576 |
| 99 | 37297 | 38925.811594511 | -1628.811594511 |
| 100 | 29764 | 30793.1558907558 | -1029.15589075577 |
| 101 | 34035 | 35167.8593378996 | -1132.85933789958 |
| 102 | 37964 | 41623.5671532351 | -3659.56715323507 |
| 103 | 33053 | 35415.6588134337 | -2362.65881343371 |
| 104 | 33053 | 31514.5207085683 | 1538.47929143171 |
| 105 | 38595 | 36235.8535187788 | 2359.14648122118 |
| 106 | 41542 | 39624.5042012152 | 1917.49579878481 |
| 107 | 39924 | 38091.4597404884 | 1832.5402595116 |
| 108 | 51355 | 49357.1512390557 | 1997.8487609443 |
| 109 | 48413 | 47204.3329934665 | 1208.66700653355 |
| 110 | 42871 | 41213.7901913698 | 1657.20980863023 |
| 111 | 40560 | 40123.8289220667 | 436.171077933344 |
| 112 | 32391 | 32300.5767586488 | 90.4232413511781 |
| 113 | 35333 | 37187.7525561103 | -1854.75255611033 |
| 114 | 40560 | 41794.1807584359 | -1234.18075843588 |
| 115 | 36631 | 36652.943252462 | -21.9432524620279 |
| 116 | 35653 | 36270.3900896026 | -617.390089602573 |
| 117 | 40244 | 41635.0680656209 | -1391.06806562086 |
| 118 | 44168 | 44060.2483030534 | 107.751696946645 |
| 119 | 39924 | 41942.7018485672 | -2018.70184856719 |
| 120 | 50057 | 52975.2835552999 | -2918.28355529987 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 49118.3418928426 | 44887.4403442164 | 53349.2434414688 |
| 122 | 43138.9914841501 | 38841.2633747511 | 47436.719593549 |
| 123 | 40722.1474357471 | 36356.079501388 | 45088.2153701063 |
| 124 | 32501.3793697302 | 28130.4259918777 | 36872.3327475826 |
| 125 | 35817.3847048631 | 31317.51666519 | 40317.2527445362 |
| 126 | 41362.9072406472 | 36673.3727455177 | 46052.4417357767 |
| 127 | 37357.6231880625 | 32687.1914882938 | 42028.0548878311 |
| 128 | 36483.9505113187 | 31761.0116248362 | 41206.8893978013 |
| 129 | 41460.633383812 | 36511.1158771266 | 46410.1508904974 |
| 130 | 45474.9291386266 | 40311.4766619989 | 50638.3816152543 |
| 131 | 41507.9946865367 | 36432.9840045638 | 46583.0053685096 |
| 132 | 52626.1272473685 | 48922.9145878529 | 56329.3399068842 |
