| Structural Time Series Model | |||||
| t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
| 1 | -6 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | -3 | -3.29531179407286 | 0.154180964893728 | 0.154180964989878 | 0.567724040537412 |
| 3 | -3 | -3.15252857705591 | 0.154047552174401 | 0.154047552174401 | -0.00388462012066034 |
| 4 | -7 | -6.63907793439743 | 0.131512617886211 | 0.131512617886211 | -1.24811656697748 |
| 5 | -9 | -8.80745633718569 | 0.118835183141517 | 0.118835183141517 | -0.788656374335559 |
| 6 | -11 | -10.8188770646545 | 0.107318922951758 | 0.107318922951758 | -0.730494777640384 |
| 7 | -13 | -12.8116795627897 | 0.0960455442770094 | 0.0960455442770096 | -0.720155459204117 |
| 8 | -11 | -11.2958683220199 | 0.103624586197541 | 0.103624586197541 | 0.486848850212971 |
| 9 | -9 | -9.36127094599773 | 0.113346615725099 | 0.113346615725099 | 0.627848575699433 |
| 10 | -17 | -16.1432560677086 | 0.076927527264887 | 0.0769275272648868 | -2.36441537724866 |
| 11 | -22 | -21.3357295033561 | 0.0492423551822298 | 0.0492423551822297 | -1.80686409606999 |
| 12 | -25 | -24.5853155214361 | 0.0320010596574752 | 0.032001059657475 | -1.13114854181923 |
| 13 | -20 | -21.6468783999326 | -0.113670186540249 | 1.25037205169985 | 1.21681548135372 |
| 14 | -24 | -23.6522776091292 | -0.163149055780822 | -0.16314905568682 | -0.546524297791949 |
| 15 | -24 | -23.8342222282825 | -0.163250017633501 | -0.1632500176335 | -0.00642075697783268 |
| 16 | -22 | -22.0992062642295 | -0.157803974815287 | -0.157803974815287 | 0.650190167252608 |
| 17 | -19 | -19.2563368749429 | -0.15010413227821 | -0.15010413227821 | 1.02789324245148 |
| 18 | -18 | -18.0386275819789 | -0.146651239806656 | -0.146651239806657 | 0.468553796590533 |
| 19 | -17 | -17.0148358377357 | -0.143708914635162 | -0.143708914635162 | 0.400942743496158 |
| 20 | -11 | -11.6203625481336 | -0.129824385377695 | -0.129824385377695 | 1.89713570962085 |
| 21 | -11 | -10.9768620482406 | -0.127890511297907 | -0.127890511297908 | 0.264906223879469 |
| 22 | -12 | -11.7790841195685 | -0.129572618887485 | -0.129572618887485 | -0.230995052470251 |
| 23 | -10 | -10.1175088513171 | -0.125115752726133 | -0.125115752726133 | 0.613563699477685 |
| 24 | -15 | -14.3133668139927 | -0.135219731591339 | -0.13521973159134 | -1.39444322823682 |
| 25 | -15 | -15.9075451322845 | -0.100534153830987 | 1.10587569219219 | -0.554818701167186 |
| 26 | -15 | -15.0251253792492 | -0.0838054104594263 | -0.0838054104397296 | 0.303201333439785 |
| 27 | -13 | -13.1826632079259 | -0.077079548988096 | -0.0770795489880958 | 0.658461864478055 |
| 28 | -8 | -8.56720093939353 | -0.0683142446653316 | -0.0683142446653317 | 1.60683043219609 |
| 29 | -13 | -12.4135612713809 | -0.0746324262837686 | -0.0746324262837683 | -1.29377657594466 |
| 30 | -9 | -9.35499008038428 | -0.0694730984783462 | -0.0694730984783462 | 1.07295877617004 |
| 31 | -7 | -7.23124811522696 | -0.0658735315866788 | -0.0658735315866781 | 0.751061558833535 |
| 32 | -4 | -4.33963206788247 | -0.0610285297192763 | -0.0610285297192764 | 1.01278474407777 |
| 33 | -4 | -3.99464039624053 | -0.0603644851860612 | -0.0603644851860616 | 0.139040445685544 |
| 34 | -2 | -2.19469536083818 | -0.0573269323640216 | -0.0573269323640217 | 0.637057005963328 |
| 35 | 0 | -0.221117292882282 | -0.054016234521313 | -0.0540162345213131 | 0.695476205262507 |
| 36 | -2 | -1.74452838456907 | -0.056407683074419 | -0.05640768307442 | -0.503188564994313 |
| 37 | -3 | -3.1928777139759 | -0.0347171503174547 | 0.381888653892968 | -0.511671224677816 |
| 38 | 1 | 0.544953821690265 | 0.0128657557270013 | 0.0128657555868662 | 1.1978104168995 |
| 39 | -2 | -1.70192437193057 | 0.00702102561677371 | 0.00702102561677351 | -0.772696407803699 |
| 40 | -1 | -1.08981756569487 | 0.00785892109202666 | 0.00785892109202629 | 0.207166805321491 |
| 41 | 1 | 0.742680352855302 | 0.0101221164601646 | 0.0101221164601649 | 0.624744716730725 |
| 42 | -3 | -2.55758448436386 | 0.00607737759708194 | 0.00607737759708165 | -1.13346013814784 |
| 43 | -4 | -3.83115107289148 | 0.00451836508667273 | 0.0045183650866738 | -0.438143777023427 |
| 44 | -9 | -8.38183359293539 | -0.00102346338125297 | -0.00102346338125325 | -1.55967755714046 |
| 45 | -9 | -8.9248836342486 | -0.00168207260874693 | -0.00168207260874734 | -0.185587038195027 |
| 46 | -7 | -7.23020175094834 | 0.000376649143446096 | 0.000376649143445951 | 0.580825749856188 |
| 47 | -14 | -13.1861831607388 | -0.00684327315772499 | -0.00684327315772511 | -2.03942336292777 |
| 48 | -12 | -12.1374458645855 | -0.00556531395093032 | -0.00556531395093115 | 0.361424632834776 |
| 49 | -16 | -15.2448137042982 | 0.0303837974362755 | -0.334221771995932 | -1.12055238270558 |
| 50 | -20 | -19.472601345605 | -0.0122793992227488 | -0.0122793993124492 | -1.37423423457016 |
| 51 | -12 | -12.8920497308288 | 0.00126209372414434 | 0.00126209372414454 | 2.25476453703457 |
| 52 | -12 | -12.1081409748974 | 0.0021231434091496 | 0.0021231434091491 | 0.267938043310582 |
| 53 | -10 | -10.254761374517 | 0.00394797480152318 | 0.00394797480152319 | 0.633801229424291 |
| 54 | -10 | -10.0335895643737 | 0.00415895442815378 | 0.00415895442815363 | 0.0743696053585824 |
