| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.00622700651239415 |
| beta | 0.442874882632437 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1180 | 1190.52993743234 | -10.5299374323372 |
| 14 | 1080 | 1090.238478984 | -10.238478983998 |
| 15 | 1190 | 1197.55332090533 | -7.5533209053342 |
| 16 | 1140 | 1142.85844726727 | -2.85844726726987 |
| 17 | 1160 | 1158.50266508463 | 1.49733491536904 |
| 18 | 1200 | 1201.71926806351 | -1.71926806350575 |
| 19 | 980 | 1066.32742591428 | -86.3274259142795 |
| 20 | 1260 | 1193.51260771911 | 66.4873922808863 |
| 21 | 1100 | 1085.38712729472 | 14.6128727052846 |
| 22 | 1210 | 1126.69996421351 | 83.3000357864917 |
| 23 | 1150 | 1140.06792600515 | 9.93207399484868 |
| 24 | 1140 | 1240.61540694708 | -100.615406947084 |
| 25 | 1110 | 1172.35042402815 | -62.3504240281511 |
| 26 | 1120 | 1072.45979541672 | 47.5402045832839 |
| 27 | 1100 | 1181.96814526387 | -81.9681452638736 |
| 28 | 1170 | 1131.54474860205 | 38.4552513979525 |
| 29 | 1120 | 1151.45194174817 | -31.4519417481729 |
| 30 | 1250 | 1190.68581930669 | 59.3141806933127 |
| 31 | 910 | 973.094885483988 | -63.094885483988 |
| 32 | 1260 | 1250.1220819984 | 9.87791800159971 |
| 33 | 1090 | 1091.14106819361 | -1.14106819361473 |
| 34 | 1240 | 1199.42948177301 | 40.5705182269908 |
| 35 | 1130 | 1139.75304671188 | -9.75304671187587 |
| 36 | 1200 | 1129.92289087033 | 70.0771091296735 |
| 37 | 1120 | 1100.99365929237 | 19.0063407076261 |
| 38 | 1120 | 1110.95784728657 | 9.04215271342946 |
| 39 | 1120 | 1091.76562155377 | 28.2343784462255 |
| 40 | 1070 | 1161.6158593563 | -91.6158593562996 |
| 41 | 1100 | 1111.68535720249 | -11.6853572024881 |
| 42 | 1230 | 1240.3881952519 | -10.3881952519025 |
| 43 | 930 | 903.272599296166 | 26.7274007038341 |
| 44 | 1240 | 1251.11452645241 | -11.1145264524062 |
| 45 | 980 | 1082.43601271054 | -102.436012710538 |
| 46 | 1270 | 1230.29161483614 | 39.7083851638563 |
| 47 | 1140 | 1121.32481402463 | 18.6751859753665 |
| 48 | 1160 | 1190.41387175642 | -30.4138717564192 |
| 49 | 1160 | 1110.45317319835 | 49.546826801648 |
| 50 | 1220 | 1110.48540083225 | 109.514599167751 |
| 51 | 1160 | 1111.04573020421 | 48.9542697957875 |
| 52 | 1090 | 1062.36658454445 | 27.6334154555536 |
| 53 | 1060 | 1092.82886361836 | -32.8288636183568 |
| 54 | 1230 | 1222.22965361525 | 7.7703463847497 |
| 55 | 1070 | 924.341563670789 | 145.658436329211 |
| 56 | 1240 | 1234.63670109674 | 5.36329890325578 |
| 57 | 1050 | 977.114203837494 | 72.8857961625065 |
| 58 | 1350 | 1268.16114287412 | 81.8388571258793 |
| 59 | 1100 | 1140.19933685539 | -40.1993368553919 |
| 60 | 1130 | 1161.50590567516 | -31.5059056751556 |
| 61 | 1170 | 1162.35708928788 | 7.64291071211755 |
| 62 | 1360 | 1223.09241098215 | 136.907589017846 |
| 63 | 1150 | 1164.72457550672 | -14.7245755067236 |
| 64 | 1180 | 1095.22034781503 | 84.779652184965 |
| 65 | 1010 | 1066.95680272819 | -56.9568027281859 |
| 66 | 1190 | 1238.8874850098 | -48.8874850098027 |
| 67 | 1000 | 1077.38334840078 | -77.3833484007769 |
| 68 | 1270 | 1248.30244951043 | 21.6975504895729 |
| 69 | 990 | 1056.97806343372 | -66.9780634337164 |
| 70 | 1470 | 1357.79005096003 | 112.209949039972 |
| 71 | 1130 | 1107.13372306086 | 22.8662769391387 |
| 72 | 1150 | 1137.81503518914 | 12.1849648108582 |
| 73 | 1150 | 1178.39821739124 | -28.3982173912368 |
| 74 | 1410 | 1368.80749702808 | 41.1925029719243 |
| 75 | 1190 | 1157.66802544677 | 32.3319745532322 |
| 76 | 1180 | 1187.5451487768 | -7.54514877680299 |
| 77 | 990 | 1016.5583670242 | -26.5583670242024 |
| 78 | 1170 | 1197.68407630512 | -27.6840763051196 |
| 79 | 1080 | 1006.68820573891 | 73.3117942610903 |
| 80 | 1350 | 1279.35024458533 | 70.6497554146711 |
| 81 | 960 | 998.452750897238 | -38.4527508972384 |
| 82 | 1490 | 1482.16820796602 | 7.83179203398163 |
| 83 | 1120 | 1139.56665667814 | -19.566656678137 |
| 84 | 1090 | 1159.74113297906 | -69.7411329790575 |
| 85 | 1220 | 1159.46094160673 | 60.5390583932694 |
| 86 | 1370 | 1422.06994218686 | -52.0699421868649 |
| 87 | 1180 | 1199.71521750289 | -19.7152175028875 |
| 88 | 1190 | 1189.4243983092 | 0.575601690801705 |
| 89 | 1000 | 997.978352950595 | 2.02164704940458 |
| 90 | 1250 | 1179.59413849789 | 70.4058615021104 |
| 91 | 1090 | 1088.9972229435 | 1.0027770564991 |
| 92 | 1370 | 1360.80440724428 | 9.19559275571601 |
| 93 | 980 | 967.83977779791 | 12.1602222020903 |
| 94 | 1530 | 1502.26708024882 | 27.732919751179 |
| 95 | 1150 | 1129.53566178108 | 20.4643382189192 |
| 96 | 1120 | 1099.98526558382 | 20.0147344161796 |
| 97 | 1290 | 1231.36986346387 | 58.6301365361307 |
| 98 | 1370 | 1383.98545465016 | -13.9854546501572 |
| 99 | 1130 | 1192.60327635658 | -62.6032763565827 |
| 100 | 1200 | 1202.70809317559 | -2.70809317558769 |
| 101 | 910 | 1010.97589529108 | -100.975895291077 |
| 102 | 1220 | 1262.51439680222 | -42.5143968022248 |
| 103 | 1040 | 1100.43592103965 | -60.4359210396524 |
| 104 | 1340 | 1382.07252135911 | -42.0725213591086 |
| 105 | 950 | 987.903535848675 | -37.9035358486751 |
| 106 | 1500 | 1540.84868424923 | -40.8486842492257 |
| 107 | 1120 | 1156.98031087966 | -36.9803108796621 |
| 108 | 1150 | 1125.46280963949 | 24.5371903605101 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 1294.96616444709 | 1192.60927283173 | 1397.32305606246 |
| 110 | 1373.99620044682 | 1271.63465855303 | 1476.35774234061 |
| 111 | 1132.5747438563 | 1030.20964958956 | 1234.93983812303 |
| 112 | 1201.76734078331 | 1099.39113986413 | 1304.14354170249 |
| 113 | 911.167888696736 | 808.791786286082 | 1013.54399110739 |
| 114 | 1221.16767514236 | 1118.75333899258 | 1323.58201129215 |
| 115 | 1040.89077052218 | 938.471863043092 | 1143.30967800127 |
| 116 | 1341.01167381771 | 1238.5075395428 | 1443.51580809262 |
| 117 | 950.747577270457 | 848.290152458545 | 1053.20500208237 |
| 118 | 1501.27629341904 | 1398.58481039559 | 1603.96777644249 |
| 119 | 1121.14461171461 | 1018.54762360261 | 1223.74159982661 |
| 120 | 1151.08812037745 | 51.7801058850528 | 2250.39613486986 |
