Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.496747147581487 |
beta | 0.0590114706957529 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 37.39 | 34.6946180555556 | 2.69538194444445 |
14 | 37.42 | 36.0550342413489 | 1.36496575865105 |
15 | 37.42 | 36.7583322873587 | 0.661667712641346 |
16 | 43.49 | 43.1995816833713 | 0.29041831662871 |
17 | 44.3 | 44.2003439261069 | 0.0996560738931294 |
18 | 44.36 | 44.3463501984308 | 0.0136498015692297 |
19 | 44.52 | 43.252949894247 | 1.26705010575296 |
20 | 44.66 | 44.5713979770007 | 0.0886020229992823 |
21 | 44.77 | 45.3299692629272 | -0.559969262927233 |
22 | 44.77 | 45.4374497969304 | -0.667449796930377 |
23 | 44.82 | 45.1344742059104 | -0.314474205910393 |
24 | 44.97 | 44.9855364719553 | -0.0155364719553148 |
25 | 45.28 | 46.4944317571624 | -1.21443175716239 |
26 | 45.5 | 45.2728519185153 | 0.227148081484685 |
27 | 45.52 | 45.0533803142063 | 0.466619685793702 |
28 | 45.52 | 51.2015650298769 | -5.68156502987691 |
29 | 45.17 | 48.9553557207326 | -3.78535572073263 |
30 | 45.25 | 46.8299219675288 | -1.57992196752879 |
31 | 45.32 | 45.2306945026843 | 0.0893054973156637 |
32 | 45.41 | 44.9915175973019 | 0.418482402698103 |
33 | 45.44 | 45.2177043577971 | 0.222295642202916 |
34 | 45.44 | 45.3127576944391 | 0.127242305560941 |
35 | 45.46 | 45.2585493684867 | 0.201450631513346 |
36 | 45.53 | 45.2078310571793 | 0.322168942820724 |
37 | 45.61 | 45.9825264579969 | -0.372526457996869 |
38 | 45.8 | 45.6307126536654 | 0.16928734633462 |
39 | 45.83 | 45.2273903579426 | 0.602609642057374 |
40 | 45.83 | 48.0773992765422 | -2.24739927654223 |
41 | 45.96 | 48.320406207204 | -2.36040620720397 |
42 | 46.01 | 47.8835049975027 | -1.87350499750266 |
43 | 46.18 | 46.8406805647715 | -0.660680564771454 |
44 | 46.32 | 46.2348205944841 | 0.0851794055159445 |
45 | 46.51 | 46.0271492799544 | 0.482850720045597 |
46 | 46.51 | 46.0418753846 | 0.468124615399951 |
47 | 46.56 | 46.0424161134731 | 0.517583886526857 |
48 | 46.54 | 46.066826178004 | 0.473173821995992 |
49 | 46.62 | 46.4286901522176 | 0.191309847782414 |
50 | 46.76 | 46.5079227126912 | 0.252077287308808 |
51 | 46.82 | 46.2445165971263 | 0.575483402873743 |
52 | 46.82 | 47.5267001752741 | -0.706700175274086 |
53 | 46.7 | 48.4032623028687 | -1.70326230286868 |
54 | 46.72 | 48.4821816207908 | -1.76218162079076 |
55 | 46.47 | 48.0526291670664 | -1.58262916706639 |
56 | 46.74 | 47.2847392715736 | -0.544739271573597 |
57 | 46.89 | 46.8664108326469 | 0.0235891673531015 |
58 | 46.89 | 46.5342503831243 | 0.355749616875727 |
59 | 46.96 | 46.3892268016323 | 0.570773198367675 |
60 | 47.6 | 46.3046353235608 | 1.29536467643918 |
61 | 47.67 | 46.8440992421934 | 0.825900757806608 |
62 | 47.58 | 47.1987745042654 | 0.381225495734576 |
63 | 47.58 | 47.0956933550218 | 0.484306644978219 |
64 | 47.58 | 47.6180657723565 | -0.0380657723564894 |
65 | 47.57 | 48.2755907772908 | -0.705590777290816 |
66 | 47.53 | 48.8000381665563 | -1.27003816655629 |
67 | 47.68 | 48.6993323408347 | -1.01933234083472 |
68 | 47.56 | 48.7441074329266 | -1.18410743292664 |
69 | 47.81 | 48.2859731396467 | -0.475973139646747 |
70 | 47.81 | 47.8499587213834 | -0.0399587213833641 |
71 | 47.81 | 47.5821211638578 | 0.227878836142231 |
72 | 47.81 | 47.647340869345 | 0.162659130654966 |
73 | 48.12 | 47.3101638537561 | 0.809836146243889 |
74 | 48.13 | 47.3548904281906 | 0.775109571809402 |
75 | 48.01 | 47.4327076400235 | 0.577292359976497 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
76 | 47.6744724871908 | 45.2367164626425 | 50.1122285117391 |
77 | 47.9521759950263 | 45.1976841701199 | 50.7066678199326 |
78 | 48.5009506660731 | 45.4317188602485 | 51.5701824718978 |
79 | 49.15241755239 | 45.7683750811991 | 52.5364600235809 |
80 | 49.6456164794199 | 45.9453304176862 | 53.3459025411536 |
81 | 50.1917623806388 | 46.1728673370019 | 54.2106574242758 |
82 | 50.2852719350601 | 45.9447468787425 | 54.6257969913777 |
83 | 50.2469052879228 | 45.581259444603 | 54.9125511312425 |
84 | 50.2342563534417 | 45.2396582212153 | 55.228854485668 |
85 | 50.2053559285573 | 44.8777252277344 | 55.5329866293801 |
86 | 49.8699664720498 | 44.2050411151372 | 55.5348918289624 |
87 | 49.4801207599984 | 43.4735065085308 | 55.486735011466 |