Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.964788833633748 |
beta | 1 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 99.8 | 99.6726228632479 | 0.127377136752116 |
14 | 99.9 | 99.986894703883 | -0.0868947038830328 |
15 | 100 | 99.9897710919696 | 0.0102289080303564 |
16 | 100.2 | 100.192053325894 | 0.00794667410625038 |
17 | 100.2 | 100.228967215121 | -0.0289672151210425 |
18 | 100.2 | 100.243986417192 | -0.0439864171922721 |
19 | 100.2 | 99.7937443233431 | 0.406255676656883 |
20 | 100.1 | 100.38234171451 | -0.282341714510395 |
21 | 100.2 | 100.109187898381 | 0.0908121016185106 |
22 | 100.1 | 100.541996552215 | -0.441996552215301 |
23 | 99.9 | 100.200990694952 | -0.300990694951523 |
24 | 99.8 | 99.7889665860693 | 0.0110334139307326 |
25 | 99.9 | 99.4764431987051 | 0.423556801294907 |
26 | 99.8 | 99.8418641157333 | -0.0418641157333326 |
27 | 99.8 | 99.7079933614357 | 0.0920066385642855 |
28 | 99.9 | 99.8843797310993 | 0.0156202689006903 |
29 | 99.9 | 99.8300868909737 | 0.069913109026345 |
30 | 99.9 | 99.9380641677994 | -0.0380641677993765 |
31 | 99.9 | 99.5131913491642 | 0.386808650835818 |
32 | 100 | 100.043819882171 | -0.0438198821706806 |
33 | 100.1 | 100.229091380479 | -0.12909138047867 |
34 | 100.2 | 100.43398130507 | -0.233981305069619 |
35 | 100.4 | 100.502324512761 | -0.102324512761228 |
36 | 100.6 | 100.688322261668 | -0.0883222616677273 |
37 | 101 | 100.593974021958 | 0.40602597804228 |
38 | 101.3 | 101.208686805016 | 0.0913131949836981 |
39 | 101.5 | 101.619099182555 | -0.119099182554862 |
40 | 101.6 | 101.796532225348 | -0.196532225348321 |
41 | 101.7 | 101.542195249722 | 0.157804750278146 |
42 | 102.1 | 101.81869077654 | 0.281309223459502 |
43 | 102.6 | 102.112557370501 | 0.487442629499114 |
44 | 102.8 | 103.217855311834 | -0.417855311834415 |
45 | 102.8 | 103.17113569173 | -0.371135691729521 |
46 | 102.5 | 103.03716561868 | -0.537165618680092 |
47 | 102.1 | 102.423481882664 | -0.323481882664268 |
48 | 101.8 | 101.789078452627 | 0.0109215473733855 |
49 | 101.5 | 101.29611137499 | 0.203888625010435 |
50 | 101.3 | 100.997928296947 | 0.302071703053031 |
51 | 101.5 | 101.100812123738 | 0.399187876262204 |
52 | 101.7 | 101.772136652011 | -0.0721366520110678 |
53 | 101.9 | 101.76688764107 | 0.133112358930106 |
54 | 102 | 102.116681903922 | -0.116681903921631 |
55 | 101.9 | 101.7426248473 | 0.157375152700297 |
56 | 102 | 101.887950907634 | 0.112049092365794 |
57 | 102.3 | 102.255718175362 | 0.0442818246377357 |
58 | 102.8 | 102.819078340558 | -0.0190783405583375 |
59 | 103.6 | 103.514994464218 | 0.0850055357815762 |
60 | 104.2 | 104.4828049543 | -0.282804954299834 |
61 | 104.4 | 104.626199459938 | -0.226199459937561 |
62 | 104.6 | 104.414536195274 | 0.1854638047257 |
63 | 104.8 | 104.793842453878 | 0.00615754612181263 |
64 | 105.2 | 105.075693404477 | 0.124306595522697 |
65 | 105.8 | 105.463037536436 | 0.336962463564234 |
66 | 106.1 | 106.393220695479 | -0.293220695478581 |
67 | 106.2 | 106.080680336728 | 0.119319663271867 |
68 | 106.4 | 106.373168875148 | 0.0268311248523077 |
69 | 106.9 | 106.759589264169 | 0.140410735831097 |
70 | 107.4 | 107.609463273578 | -0.209463273577995 |
71 | 108 | 108.137682526407 | -0.137682526406977 |
72 | 108.5 | 108.675167540517 | -0.175167540517293 |
73 | 108.9 | 108.825722457601 | 0.0742775423990452 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
74 | 109.109667940941 | 108.659451740171 | 109.55988414171 |
75 | 109.316010549044 | 108.337551838796 | 110.294469259291 |
76 | 109.602423541839 | 107.972875508437 | 111.231971575241 |
77 | 109.763738912434 | 107.381686420556 | 112.145791404312 |
78 | 109.907950335817 | 106.684448094393 | 113.131452577241 |
79 | 109.737043480442 | 105.591787386727 | 113.882299574158 |
80 | 109.640250255416 | 104.499427205531 | 114.781073305302 |
81 | 109.707990320338 | 103.502907665463 | 115.913072975212 |
82 | 109.977818212664 | 102.643961187649 | 117.31167523768 |
83 | 110.480480669054 | 101.956829493122 | 119.004131844987 |
84 | 111.052142812551 | 101.280658499471 | 120.823627125631 |
85 | 111.452142812551 | 100.377368268171 | 122.526917356931 |