| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.861988975717109 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.0747324977131723 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 498.1 | 491.477422542735 | 6.62257745726498 |
| 14 | 498.76 | 497.765368819213 | 0.994631180787394 |
| 15 | 498.88 | 498.677920782772 | 0.202079217228345 |
| 16 | 498.88 | 498.906885024393 | -0.0268850243931524 |
| 17 | 498.88 | 498.976817947237 | -0.0968179472368433 |
| 18 | 498.88 | 498.901052794883 | -0.0210527948829053 |
| 19 | 499.48 | 499.393929701935 | 0.0860702980651809 |
| 20 | 501.21 | 499.38206220082 | 1.82793779918046 |
| 21 | 502.05 | 503.777915282826 | -1.72791528282556 |
| 22 | 502.05 | 503.239912208873 | -1.18991220887256 |
| 23 | 502.05 | 502.249411853569 | -0.199411853569018 |
| 24 | 504.1 | 502.112711884981 | 1.98728811501894 |
| 25 | 506.81 | 512.29422784082 | -5.48422784082021 |
| 26 | 516.88 | 508.088195295938 | 8.79180470406226 |
| 27 | 520.43 | 515.713650569835 | 4.71634943016534 |
| 28 | 520.68 | 519.831504452165 | 0.848495547834773 |
| 29 | 520.68 | 520.655284496055 | 0.0247155039450035 |
| 30 | 520.68 | 520.685061273654 | -0.00506127365383691 |
| 31 | 521.03 | 521.192827553495 | -0.162827553495163 |
| 32 | 521.25 | 520.984378310379 | 0.265621689620616 |
| 33 | 521.25 | 523.996857385831 | -2.74685738583105 |
| 34 | 521.25 | 522.586086366701 | -1.33608636670124 |
| 35 | 521.65 | 521.479801428905 | 0.170198571095398 |
| 36 | 521.65 | 521.684254995204 | -0.0342549952042646 |
| 37 | 522.77 | 530.046162543746 | -7.2761625437463 |
| 38 | 518.72 | 524.442743733956 | -5.72274373395567 |
| 39 | 519.27 | 519.514784393748 | -0.244784393747523 |
| 40 | 519.38 | 519.316302921555 | 0.0636970784447612 |
| 41 | 521.29 | 519.455098944628 | 1.83490105537214 |
| 42 | 521.29 | 521.044928596598 | 0.245071403401994 |
| 43 | 521.29 | 521.766679299544 | -0.476679299544458 |
| 44 | 523.47 | 521.292112297639 | 2.17788770236075 |
| 45 | 523.86 | 525.921873160999 | -2.06187316099852 |
| 46 | 524.14 | 525.1161015555 | -0.976101555500122 |
| 47 | 524.14 | 524.335655241493 | -0.195655241493 |
| 48 | 524.14 | 524.222638139231 | -0.0826381392305393 |
| 49 | 534.6 | 532.46814757878 | 2.13185242121983 |
| 50 | 534.99 | 534.990355771726 | -0.00035577172639023 |
| 51 | 535.39 | 535.051530941448 | 0.33846905855205 |
| 52 | 535.39 | 535.358989164882 | 0.0310108351176268 |
| 53 | 535.39 | 535.487878042402 | -0.0978780424023853 |
| 54 | 535.39 | 535.395276061943 | -0.00527606194339114 |
| 55 | 535.39 | 535.893785938913 | -0.503785938912642 |
| 56 | 535.64 | 535.423232274018 | 0.216767725981526 |
| 57 | 536.08 | 538.318800831834 | -2.2388008318336 |
| 58 | 537.8 | 537.371718073628 | 0.428281926371483 |
| 59 | 537.8 | 537.80988429059 | -0.00988429058998008 |
| 60 | 537.8 | 537.858165348072 | -0.0581653480725208 |
| 61 | 537.85 | 546.147610116945 | -8.29761011694541 |
| 62 | 544.39 | 539.657745179013 | 4.73225482098712 |
| 63 | 545.15 | 543.801873114332 | 1.34812688566831 |
| 64 | 544.65 | 544.976474157985 | -0.326474157985331 |
| 65 | 544.65 | 544.79588556437 | -0.145885564369678 |
| 66 | 544.65 | 544.662856717582 | -0.0128567175820535 |
| 67 | 545.73 | 545.149690567676 | 0.580309432323702 |
| 68 | 548.94 | 545.621046886024 | 3.31895311397636 |
| 69 | 550.94 | 551.165338539361 | -0.225338539361246 |
| 70 | 551.22 | 551.981346127971 | -0.761346127970569 |
| 71 | 551.22 | 551.389546870591 | -0.169546870591034 |
| 72 | 551.22 | 551.299702577866 | -0.0797025778661009 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 559.485601612186 | 554.31135180355 | 564.659851420822 |
| 74 | 560.282573955334 | 553.451339364573 | 567.113808546096 |
| 75 | 560.312646818609 | 552.154297047616 | 568.470996589602 |
| 76 | 560.307905666916 | 551.009971706207 | 569.605839627625 |
| 77 | 560.410596772581 | 550.0982507306 | 570.722942814562 |
| 78 | 560.404691721357 | 549.169150530947 | 571.640232911768 |
| 79 | 560.9087257817 | 548.820289539024 | 572.997162024377 |
| 80 | 560.908107887382 | 548.023109022613 | 573.793106752151 |
| 81 | 563.554943045539 | 549.919837593181 | 577.190048497898 |
| 82 | 564.559661637628 | 550.213616689671 | 578.905706585584 |
| 83 | 564.630238112688 | 549.606859311612 | 579.653616913765 |
| 84 | 564.6874679991 | 549.016002989329 | 580.358933008871 |
