| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.466881677549161 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 832 | 869.23530982906 | -37.2353098290597 |
| 14 | 826 | 845.309304932985 | -19.3093049329846 |
| 15 | 907 | 917.04428994121 | -10.04428994121 |
| 16 | 776 | 781.604940691313 | -5.60494069131335 |
| 17 | 835 | 843.529908933102 | -8.52990893310186 |
| 18 | 715 | 725.089263095386 | -10.0892630953859 |
| 19 | 729 | 739.087250037156 | -10.0872500371564 |
| 20 | 733 | 710.71117683893 | 22.2888231610701 |
| 21 | 736 | 748.284232341279 | -12.2842323412794 |
| 22 | 712 | 701.924095026025 | 10.0759049739751 |
| 23 | 711 | 842.461829464079 | -131.461829464079 |
| 24 | 667 | 596.001522344521 | 70.9984776554793 |
| 25 | 799 | 701.923730471388 | 97.0762695286123 |
| 26 | 661 | 750.262022718541 | -89.2620227185408 |
| 27 | 692 | 794.276714747819 | -102.276714747819 |
| 28 | 649 | 618.142434704664 | 30.8575652953357 |
| 29 | 729 | 695.531724746862 | 33.4682752531384 |
| 30 | 622 | 595.867941320933 | 26.1320586790674 |
| 31 | 671 | 626.778072934034 | 44.2219270659658 |
| 32 | 635 | 641.018237279012 | -6.01823727901194 |
| 33 | 648 | 646.943715565198 | 1.05628443480191 |
| 34 | 745 | 618.732619997012 | 126.267380002988 |
| 35 | 624 | 738.061665666415 | -114.061665666415 |
| 36 | 477 | 607.660475504801 | -130.660475504801 |
| 37 | 710 | 633.334361944015 | 76.6656380559846 |
| 38 | 515 | 572.802946558234 | -57.802946558234 |
| 39 | 461 | 624.56693405752 | -163.56693405752 |
| 40 | 590 | 490.793697643003 | 99.206302356997 |
| 41 | 415 | 601.485578016025 | -186.485578016025 |
| 42 | 554 | 395.218299119282 | 158.781700880718 |
| 43 | 585 | 497.704158497566 | 87.295841502434 |
| 44 | 513 | 505.270792138002 | 7.72920786199791 |
| 45 | 591 | 521.386257821849 | 69.6137421781515 |
| 46 | 561 | 591.935712354926 | -30.9357123549263 |
| 47 | 684 | 509.745696884868 | 174.254303115132 |
| 48 | 668 | 505.104820236473 | 162.895179763527 |
| 49 | 795 | 778.363813323186 | 16.636186676814 |
| 50 | 776 | 618.118080723271 | 157.881919276729 |
| 51 | 1043 | 714.196660614219 | 328.803339385781 |
| 52 | 964 | 950.391310422535 | 13.6086895774652 |
| 53 | 762 | 868.811657744554 | -106.811657744554 |
| 54 | 1030 | 883.810984923671 | 146.189015076329 |
| 55 | 939 | 942.307128598045 | -3.30712859804498 |
| 56 | 779 | 865.154465317583 | -86.1544653175831 |
| 57 | 918 | 870.429143293149 | 47.5708567068514 |
| 58 | 839 | 877.08242195534 | -38.0824219553405 |
| 59 | 874 | 900.946295549143 | -26.946295549143 |
| 60 | 840 | 796.312789086756 | 43.6872109132439 |
| 61 | 794 | 935.942416661684 | -141.942416661684 |
| 62 | 820 | 776.959927728694 | 43.0400722713059 |
| 63 | 1003 | 910.542294196359 | 92.4577058036409 |
| 64 | 780 | 868.355455165137 | -88.3554551651371 |
| 65 | 607 | 674.972317986602 | -67.9723179866024 |
| 66 | 1001 | 842.984315540016 | 158.015684459984 |
| 67 | 743 | 827.302981127499 | -84.3029811274986 |
| 68 | 810 | 668.167405172121 | 141.832594827879 |
| 69 | 716 | 851.176483594766 | -135.176483594766 |
| 70 | 775 | 726.845045216489 | 48.1549547835106 |
| 71 | 883 | 796.908442957838 | 86.0915570421619 |
| 72 | 633 | 782.706255213883 | -149.706255213883 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 733.081461246411 | 535.379553542342 | 930.78336895048 |
| 74 | 738.986840102547 | 520.798935644249 | 957.174744560845 |
| 75 | 878.820031314596 | 641.911021367784 | 1115.72904126141 |
| 76 | 697.071574442715 | 442.816198224131 | 951.326950661299 |
| 77 | 555.806604291205 | 285.314989489325 | 826.298219093085 |
| 78 | 876.031976451449 | 590.224994346036 | 1161.83895855686 |
| 79 | 657.391493702651 | 357.049108478256 | 957.733878927045 |
| 80 | 658.17245389826 | 343.966365949039 | 972.378541847481 |
| 81 | 627.283877324181 | 299.800468513248 | 954.767286135115 |
| 82 | 663.801211252552 | 323.5582092841 | 1004.044213221 |
| 83 | 731.606640677888 | 379.065554092822 | 1084.14772726295 |
| 84 | 551.501748251748 | 187.077359560961 | 915.926136942536 |
