| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.959702211416699 |
| beta | 0.0188108560999103 |
| gamma | 0.434955331866694 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 100.3 | 96.8227297008547 | 3.4772702991453 |
| 14 | 101.1 | 100.737202427932 | 0.362797572068388 |
| 15 | 104.1 | 103.760924977439 | 0.339075022560792 |
| 16 | 107.3 | 107.19300220414 | 0.106997795860266 |
| 17 | 110.1 | 110.25011934846 | -0.150119348459839 |
| 18 | 112.6 | 113.024437189844 | -0.424437189843559 |
| 19 | 114.3 | 113.156995970613 | 1.14300402938657 |
| 20 | 115.3 | 109.856132668639 | 5.44386733136137 |
| 21 | 109.9 | 113.831094546683 | -3.93109454668328 |
| 22 | 108.2 | 110.504584102056 | -2.30458410205638 |
| 23 | 103.2 | 107.414101752272 | -4.21410175227196 |
| 24 | 101.8 | 104.414974669608 | -2.61497466960778 |
| 25 | 105.6 | 103.789274399763 | 1.81072560023725 |
| 26 | 108.2 | 105.969745491539 | 2.23025450846077 |
| 27 | 109.8 | 110.738942313951 | -0.938942313950875 |
| 28 | 114.6 | 112.871051394515 | 1.72894860548482 |
| 29 | 117.2 | 117.440148128804 | -0.240148128803909 |
| 30 | 116.5 | 120.081528199067 | -3.58152819906732 |
| 31 | 116.1 | 117.112970279057 | -1.01297027905701 |
| 32 | 112.1 | 111.680753477514 | 0.419246522486105 |
| 33 | 106.8 | 110.440900608947 | -3.6409006089474 |
| 34 | 106.9 | 107.198284626843 | -0.298284626842786 |
| 35 | 104.5 | 105.81288780858 | -1.3128878085804 |
| 36 | 103 | 105.491571351183 | -2.49157135118259 |
| 37 | 105.9 | 104.92958191884 | 0.970418081159877 |
| 38 | 107.7 | 106.163499383612 | 1.53650061638758 |
| 39 | 107.1 | 110.051363960287 | -2.95136396028722 |
| 40 | 112.5 | 110.102593493743 | 2.3974065062574 |
| 41 | 114.5 | 115.094448356382 | -0.59444835638206 |
| 42 | 114.6 | 117.146594176385 | -2.5465941763851 |
| 43 | 113.1 | 115.044324510823 | -1.94432451082275 |
| 44 | 112.8 | 108.554613717754 | 4.24538628224605 |
| 45 | 111.9 | 110.79584825921 | 1.10415174078994 |
| 46 | 112 | 112.131617401107 | -0.131617401106695 |
| 47 | 112.4 | 110.857355996142 | 1.5426440038585 |
| 48 | 110 | 113.276358686901 | -3.27635868690116 |
| 49 | 112.3 | 112.028238941382 | 0.271761058618466 |
| 50 | 109.6 | 112.59531411801 | -2.99531411801043 |
| 51 | 111.9 | 111.967250176317 | -0.0672501763172164 |
| 52 | 110.8 | 114.844114539668 | -4.04411453966785 |
| 53 | 110.4 | 113.449291946263 | -3.04929194626317 |
| 54 | 110.8 | 112.914690378754 | -2.11469037875366 |
| 55 | 114 | 111.048661384269 | 2.95133861573137 |
| 56 | 108.4 | 109.26538669186 | -0.865386691859527 |
| 57 | 110.5 | 106.354044249021 | 4.1459557509794 |
| 58 | 105.1 | 110.449594206372 | -5.3495942063721 |
| 59 | 102.3 | 103.964990758408 | -1.66499075840817 |
| 60 | 104.3 | 102.931262025037 | 1.36873797496268 |
| 61 | 103.4 | 105.997208393558 | -2.59720839355776 |
| 62 | 102.4 | 103.495835877118 | -1.09583587711796 |
| 63 | 104.5 | 104.518491752953 | -0.0184917529525563 |
| 64 | 107.3 | 107.149788485001 | 0.150211514999214 |
| 65 | 110.1 | 109.650770524177 | 0.449229475822762 |
| 66 | 111.8 | 112.406310984473 | -0.606310984473154 |
| 67 | 111.8 | 112.020125392204 | -0.220125392204196 |
| 68 | 105.7 | 107.012489580137 | -1.31248958013667 |
| 69 | 106 | 103.638025999457 | 2.36197400054344 |
| 70 | 106.4 | 105.700970307498 | 0.699029692502421 |
| 71 | 107.1 | 105.040943168489 | 2.05905683151148 |
| 72 | 111.5 | 107.656710919838 | 3.84328908016235 |
| 73 | 109.6 | 113.094993388389 | -3.49499338838889 |
| 74 | 109.9 | 109.809140741067 | 0.0908592589330368 |
| 75 | 109.3 | 112.061787612635 | -2.76178761263463 |
| 76 | 111.4 | 112.086003645189 | -0.686003645189246 |
| 77 | 112.9 | 113.797322629388 | -0.897322629387787 |
| 78 | 115.5 | 115.225377131838 | 0.274622868161984 |
| 79 | 118.4 | 115.690602318342 | 2.70939768165793 |
| 80 | 116.2 | 113.527383411084 | 2.67261658891626 |
| 81 | 113.3 | 114.165876279392 | -0.865876279391799 |
| 82 | 113.8 | 113.167662293637 | 0.632337706362776 |
| 83 | 114.1 | 112.532029339118 | 1.56797066088222 |
| 84 | 117.1 | 114.763469103272 | 2.33653089672755 |
| 85 | 115.5 | 118.655582625373 | -3.15558262537289 |
| 86 | 115.2 | 115.792936151897 | -0.592936151897064 |
| 87 | 114.2 | 117.361619201208 | -3.16161920120808 |
| 88 | 115.3 | 117.053558276441 | -1.7535582764408 |
| 89 | 118.8 | 117.732424909505 | 1.06757509049473 |
| 90 | 118 | 121.097995730895 | -3.09799573089464 |
| 91 | 118.1 | 118.339560285812 | -0.239560285812118 |
| 92 | 111.8 | 113.26271099964 | -1.46271099964008 |
| 93 | 112 | 109.712980528128 | 2.28701947187184 |
| 94 | 114.3 | 111.666267997332 | 2.63373200266781 |
| 95 | 115 | 112.903308043451 | 2.09669195654909 |
| 96 | 118.5 | 115.600709776482 | 2.89929022351801 |
| 97 | 117.6 | 119.891875584767 | -2.29187558476663 |
| 98 | 119.1 | 117.873875654762 | 1.22612434523796 |
| 99 | 120.6 | 121.146958645041 | -0.546958645041428 |
| 100 | 123.6 | 123.423742120695 | 0.176257879305467 |
| 101 | 122.7 | 126.089813056245 | -3.38981305624483 |
| 102 | 123.8 | 125.109844538946 | -1.309844538946 |
| 103 | 123.1 | 124.155123783555 | -1.05512378355536 |
| 104 | 124.5 | 118.29693424745 | 6.20306575255016 |
| 105 | 120.7 | 122.330976767582 | -1.63097676758157 |
| 106 | 118.7 | 120.620686583256 | -1.92068658325644 |
| 107 | 119 | 117.485662759075 | 1.51433724092487 |
| 108 | 122.3 | 119.635966786425 | 2.66403321357537 |
| 109 | 118.6 | 123.603841145862 | -5.00384114586195 |
| 110 | 118.1 | 118.989340442095 | -0.889340442095317 |
| 111 | 118.2 | 120.107454949665 | -1.90745494966484 |
| 112 | 120.8 | 120.973008553726 | -0.173008553726334 |
| 113 | 119.7 | 123.116842410753 | -3.41684241075281 |
| 114 | 119.7 | 122.022362796018 | -2.32236279601818 |
| 115 | 117.1 | 119.957083789464 | -2.85708378946433 |
| 116 | 114.5 | 112.320931515989 | 2.17906848401113 |
| 117 | 116.5 | 112.10734003537 | 4.3926599646295 |
| 118 | 116.4 | 116.033131138263 | 0.366868861736791 |
| 119 | 114.9 | 115.055246110449 | -0.155246110449312 |
| 120 | 115.5 | 115.494816764521 | 0.00518323547899513 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 116.60000457811 | 112.018545995502 | 121.181463160719 |
| 122 | 116.773570773271 | 110.366069012352 | 123.18107253419 |
| 123 | 118.657148723869 | 110.791385820948 | 126.52291162679 |
| 124 | 121.347933622955 | 112.213061662217 | 130.482805583693 |
| 125 | 123.568312033555 | 113.282557845985 | 133.854066221126 |
| 126 | 125.80121596206 | 114.446196465922 | 137.156235458198 |
| 127 | 126.026314988704 | 113.661900214874 | 138.390729762535 |
| 128 | 121.342936895361 | 108.014873444857 | 134.671000345865 |
| 129 | 119.160101683363 | 104.904375921752 | 133.415827444974 |
| 130 | 118.803598251974 | 103.649134917474 | 133.958061586475 |
| 131 | 117.46176781371 | 101.432198806759 | 133.491336820661 |
| 132 | 118.053234038856 | 101.168111324628 | 134.938356753083 |
