| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.953684845299326 |
| beta | 0.0189565168474447 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 100.3 | 96.9309818808321 | 3.36901811916792 |
| 14 | 101.1 | 100.731272479984 | 0.368727520015739 |
| 15 | 104.1 | 103.765313288079 | 0.334686711920625 |
| 16 | 107.3 | 107.193441801252 | 0.10655819874826 |
| 17 | 110.1 | 110.257785139625 | -0.15778513962519 |
| 18 | 112.6 | 113.050537958068 | -0.450537958067983 |
| 19 | 114.3 | 113.572004868659 | 0.727995131340833 |
| 20 | 115.3 | 109.414018197121 | 5.88598180287852 |
| 21 | 109.9 | 113.44517150921 | -3.5451715092095 |
| 22 | 108.2 | 110.466675239945 | -2.26667523994506 |
| 23 | 103.2 | 107.263023920044 | -4.06302392004402 |
| 24 | 101.8 | 104.460429051434 | -2.66042905143406 |
| 25 | 105.6 | 103.956617570432 | 1.64338242956815 |
| 26 | 108.2 | 105.877279614138 | 2.32272038586207 |
| 27 | 109.8 | 110.86026275494 | -1.06026275494017 |
| 28 | 114.6 | 113.003249368397 | 1.59675063160319 |
| 29 | 117.2 | 117.574865415443 | -0.374865415443409 |
| 30 | 116.5 | 120.232570393557 | -3.73257039355705 |
| 31 | 116.1 | 117.575825918789 | -1.47582591878887 |
| 32 | 112.1 | 111.311403819235 | 0.788596180764884 |
| 33 | 106.8 | 109.893467705816 | -3.09346770581604 |
| 34 | 106.9 | 107.193717291366 | -0.293717291366121 |
| 35 | 104.5 | 105.623841527367 | -1.12384152736742 |
| 36 | 103 | 105.564110768179 | -2.56411076817857 |
| 37 | 105.9 | 105.24266247696 | 0.657337523040113 |
| 38 | 107.7 | 106.106004227523 | 1.59399577247686 |
| 39 | 107.1 | 110.065634607699 | -2.96563460769934 |
| 40 | 112.5 | 110.254161654284 | 2.2458383457157 |
| 41 | 114.5 | 115.119532403948 | -0.619532403948426 |
| 42 | 114.6 | 117.136118504881 | -2.53611850488106 |
| 43 | 113.1 | 115.540909374848 | -2.44090937484818 |
| 44 | 112.8 | 108.408321850799 | 4.39167814920131 |
| 45 | 111.9 | 110.110639234872 | 1.78936076512802 |
| 46 | 112 | 112.155901551624 | -0.155901551624012 |
| 47 | 112.4 | 110.559119996677 | 1.84088000332304 |
| 48 | 110 | 113.31092811258 | -3.31092811257987 |
| 49 | 112.3 | 112.559611150613 | -0.259611150612528 |
| 50 | 109.6 | 112.57074852086 | -2.97074852085991 |
| 51 | 111.9 | 111.905613626695 | -0.00561362669519383 |
| 52 | 110.8 | 115.242897604104 | -4.44289760410419 |
| 53 | 110.4 | 113.411166129248 | -3.01116612924757 |
| 54 | 110.8 | 112.783741333984 | -1.98374133398357 |
| 55 | 114 | 111.512533362018 | 2.48746663798225 |
| 56 | 108.4 | 109.252192096782 | -0.852192096782332 |
| 57 | 110.5 | 105.762057531513 | 4.73794246848703 |
| 58 | 105.1 | 110.39605626591 | -5.29605626591027 |
| 59 | 102.3 | 103.875652513831 | -1.57565251383146 |
| 60 | 104.3 | 102.823368458878 | 1.47663154112206 |
| 61 | 103.4 | 106.468093696084 | -3.06809369608443 |
| 62 | 102.4 | 103.447806412409 | -1.04780641240909 |
| 63 | 104.5 | 104.410821668265 | 0.0891783317354395 |
| 64 | 107.3 | 107.223151020445 | 0.0768489795554501 |
| 65 | 110.1 | 109.550543451931 | 0.549456548068889 |
| 66 | 111.8 | 112.27233209165 | -0.472332091649704 |
| 67 | 111.8 | 112.591689569562 | -0.791689569561797 |
| 68 | 105.7 | 107.033390440973 | -1.33339044097259 |
| 69 | 106 | 103.282668629426 | 2.717331370574 |
| 70 | 106.4 | 105.39173182272 | 1.0082681772799 |
| 71 | 107.1 | 104.994857985521 | 2.10514201447884 |
| 72 | 111.5 | 107.632274274886 | 3.86772572511356 |
| 73 | 109.6 | 113.526260838497 | -3.9262608384975 |
| 74 | 109.9 | 109.817526870544 | 0.0824731294563321 |
| 75 | 109.3 | 112.115046876213 | -2.81504687621313 |
| 76 | 111.4 | 112.296910885805 | -0.89691088580544 |
| 77 | 112.9 | 113.801103019808 | -0.901103019808403 |
| 78 | 115.5 | 115.120186785276 | 0.379813214723939 |
| 79 | 118.4 | 116.248102808557 | 2.15189719144315 |
| 80 | 116.2 | 113.221638080897 | 2.97836191910282 |
| 81 | 113.3 | 113.640959252586 | -0.340959252586444 |
| 82 | 113.8 | 112.761192857498 | 1.03880714250168 |
| 83 | 114.1 | 112.396691291353 | 1.70330870864731 |
| 84 | 117.1 | 114.808626591117 | 2.29137340888263 |
| 85 | 115.5 | 118.932352985912 | -3.43235298591199 |
| 86 | 115.2 | 115.912469878914 | -0.712469878913595 |
| 87 | 114.2 | 117.423377067505 | -3.22337706750507 |
| 88 | 115.3 | 117.44456543409 | -2.1445654340905 |
| 89 | 118.8 | 117.827653138527 | 0.972346861472573 |
| 90 | 118 | 121.123593864377 | -3.12359386437699 |
| 91 | 118.1 | 118.969425055021 | -0.869425055020614 |
| 92 | 111.8 | 113.023582327859 | -1.22358232785906 |
| 93 | 112 | 109.234844332524 | 2.76515566747599 |
| 94 | 114.3 | 111.291706282093 | 3.00829371790722 |
| 95 | 115 | 112.766604454323 | 2.23339554567694 |
| 96 | 118.5 | 115.658437014939 | 2.84156298506106 |
| 97 | 117.6 | 120.006212398457 | -2.40621239845657 |
| 98 | 119.1 | 118.064819642529 | 1.03518035747138 |
| 99 | 120.6 | 121.184677434607 | -0.584677434607471 |
| 100 | 123.6 | 123.984077578794 | -0.384077578794489 |
| 101 | 122.7 | 126.443088126164 | -3.74308812616427 |
| 102 | 123.8 | 125.115580789108 | -1.31558078910798 |
| 103 | 123.1 | 124.85906000986 | -1.75906000986049 |
| 104 | 124.5 | 117.835886846205 | 6.66411315379543 |
| 105 | 120.7 | 121.615959123131 | -0.915959123131074 |
| 106 | 118.7 | 120.1960451004 | -1.49604510040008 |
| 107 | 119 | 117.278397292704 | 1.72160270729559 |
| 108 | 122.3 | 119.721887456695 | 2.57811254330521 |
| 109 | 118.6 | 123.598679304115 | -4.99867930411457 |
| 110 | 118.1 | 119.293131448774 | -1.19313144877381 |
| 111 | 118.2 | 120.105408386567 | -1.90540838656734 |
| 112 | 120.8 | 121.476376067599 | -0.676376067598824 |
| 113 | 119.7 | 123.316339712947 | -3.61633971294718 |
| 114 | 119.7 | 122.046108376457 | -2.34610837645658 |
| 115 | 117.1 | 120.615293059399 | -3.51529305939889 |
| 116 | 114.5 | 112.367162938855 | 2.13283706114466 |
| 117 | 116.5 | 111.493629112927 | 5.00637088707269 |
| 118 | 116.4 | 115.588336007438 | 0.811663992562018 |
| 119 | 114.9 | 114.955729720538 | -0.0557297205379967 |
| 120 | 115.5 | 115.59542665509 | -0.0954266550903782 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 116.346953704968 | 111.588215574882 | 121.105691835054 |
| 122 | 116.889568780573 | 110.244904585137 | 123.53423297601 |
| 123 | 118.720936551996 | 110.501456441786 | 126.940416662205 |
| 124 | 121.944860107114 | 112.244527116047 | 131.645193098181 |
| 125 | 124.286467484373 | 113.265770864291 | 135.307164104455 |
| 126 | 126.644156903966 | 114.36727325257 | 138.921040555362 |
| 127 | 127.513552480857 | 114.160935006051 | 140.866169955663 |
| 128 | 122.602571982206 | 108.788000769928 | 136.417143194484 |
| 129 | 119.716251085959 | 105.279616757073 | 134.152885414845 |
| 130 | 118.824131982263 | 103.579633139483 | 134.068630825042 |
| 131 | 117.339976334718 | 101.392307716344 | 133.287644953092 |
| 132 | 118.039398158831 | 91.4827160906476 | 144.596080227014 |
