Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.682187850039951 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 45.93 | 45.03 | 0.899999999999999 |
4 | 45.93 | 45.643969065036 | 0.286030934964046 |
5 | 45.9 | 45.839095893604 | 0.0609041063960021 |
6 | 45.91 | 45.8506439350049 | 0.0593560649951073 |
7 | 45.85 | 45.9011359213707 | -0.0511359213707294 |
8 | 45.58 | 45.806251617111 | -0.226251617111025 |
9 | 45.56 | 45.381905512866 | 0.178094487134011 |
10 | 45.5 | 45.4833994081479 | 0.0166005918520895 |
11 | 45.5 | 45.4347241302129 | 0.0652758697871221 |
12 | 45.5 | 45.4792545354824 | 0.0207454645175602 |
13 | 45.51 | 45.4934068393198 | 0.0165931606802445 |
14 | 45.49 | 45.5147264919296 | -0.0247264919295702 |
15 | 45.4 | 45.4778583795611 | -0.0778583795611141 |
16 | 45.38 | 45.3347443390007 | 0.0452556609992811 |
17 | 45.38 | 45.34561720108 | 0.034382798920042 |
18 | 45.38 | 45.3690727287536 | 0.0109272712464232 |
19 | 45.49 | 45.376527180432 | 0.113472819568024 |
20 | 45.41 | 45.5639369592511 | -0.153936959251062 |
21 | 44.99 | 45.3789230359779 | -0.388923035977882 |
22 | 44.98 | 44.6936044662331 | 0.286395533766871 |
23 | 44.93 | 44.8789800196746 | 0.0510199803254139 |
24 | 44.93 | 44.8637852303619 | 0.0662147696381368 |
25 | 44.91 | 44.9089561417022 | 0.0010438582978054 |
26 | 44.86 | 44.8896682491501 | -0.029668249150113 |
27 | 44.76 | 44.8194289300479 | -0.0594289300479502 |
28 | 44.89 | 44.6788872360284 | 0.211112763971641 |
29 | 44.89 | 44.9529057985982 | -0.062905798598166 |
30 | 45 | 44.9099922270974 | 0.0900077729025597 |
31 | 45.01 | 45.0813944361807 | -0.0713944361807251 |
32 | 45.11 | 45.0426900192578 | 0.0673099807422233 |
33 | 45.05 | 45.1886080703065 | -0.138608070306546 |
34 | 44.67 | 45.0340513288259 | -0.36405132882593 |
35 | 44.48 | 44.40569993551 | 0.0743000644900107 |
36 | 44.48 | 44.2663865367623 | 0.213613463237742 |
37 | 44.48 | 44.412111045988 | 0.0678889540119982 |
38 | 44.58 | 44.4584240655669 | 0.121575934433096 |
39 | 44.79 | 44.6413616908944 | 0.148638309105586 |
40 | 44.79 | 44.9527609394167 | -0.162760939416728 |
41 | 44.41 | 44.8417274040855 | -0.431727404085549 |
42 | 44.41 | 44.1672082144891 | 0.242791785510903 |
43 | 44.44 | 44.3328378206541 | 0.107162179345863 |
44 | 44.43 | 44.4359425573877 | -0.00594255738768368 |
45 | 44.36 | 44.4218886169396 | -0.0618886169396475 |
46 | 44.39 | 44.3096689544076 | 0.0803310455923594 |
47 | 44.39 | 44.3944698176918 | -0.00446981769175636 |
48 | 44.41 | 44.3914205623705 | 0.0185794376294481 |
49 | 44.32 | 44.4240952289819 | -0.104095228981926 |
50 | 44.43 | 44.2630827285233 | 0.166917271476663 |
51 | 44.82 | 44.4869516630865 | 0.333048336913464 |
52 | 44.97 | 45.1041531920049 | -0.134153192004916 |
53 | 44.91 | 45.1626355143751 | -0.252635514375086 |
54 | 44.79 | 44.9302906359798 | -0.140290635979802 |
55 | 44.76 | 44.71458606864 | 0.0454139313599953 |
56 | 44.8 | 44.7155669008363 | 0.0844330991636539 |
57 | 44.65 | 44.813166135227 | -0.163166135227009 |
58 | 44.49 | 44.5518561802372 | -0.0618561802371644 |
59 | 44.56 | 44.3496586456295 | 0.210341354370506 |
60 | 44.4 | 44.563150961942 | -0.163150961942002 |
61 | 44.45 | 44.2918513579828 | 0.158148642017167 |
62 | 44.46 | 44.4497384400673 | 0.0102615599327294 |
63 | 44.39 | 44.4667387515758 | -0.0767387515758315 |
64 | 44.5 | 44.3443885076236 | 0.155611492376437 |
65 | 44.44 | 44.5605447770494 | -0.120544777049354 |
66 | 44.41 | 44.4183105947605 | -0.0083105947605091 |
67 | 44.4 | 44.3826412079883 | 0.01735879201172 |
68 | 44.42 | 44.38448316499 | 0.0355168350099575 |
69 | 44.49 | 44.4287123183057 | 0.0612876816942887 |
70 | 44.46 | 44.5405220301147 | -0.0805220301146718 |
71 | 44.49 | 44.4555908795099 | 0.0344091204901105 |
72 | 44.5 | 44.5090643634388 | -0.00906436343881012 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 44.5128807648325 | 44.1546802336277 | 44.8710812960373 |
74 | 44.525761529665 | 43.8247716047035 | 45.2267514546265 |
75 | 44.5386422944975 | 43.4392509031549 | 45.6380336858401 |
76 | 44.55152305933 | 43.0024733641074 | 46.1005727545526 |
77 | 44.5644038241625 | 42.5190453900581 | 46.609762258267 |
78 | 44.577284588995 | 41.992735576736 | 47.1618336012541 |
79 | 44.5901653538275 | 41.4265936310715 | 47.7537370765836 |
80 | 44.60304611866 | 40.8231265246671 | 48.382965712653 |
81 | 44.6159268834925 | 40.1844332818735 | 49.0474204851116 |
82 | 44.628807648325 | 39.5123010348464 | 49.7453142618037 |
83 | 44.6416884131575 | 38.8082735505643 | 50.4751032757508 |
84 | 44.6545691779901 | 38.0737009746615 | 51.2354373813186 |