Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.694725004533896 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 0.66 | 0.67 | -0.01 |
3 | 0.66 | 0.663052749954661 | -0.00305274995466109 |
4 | 0.67 | 0.660931928228568 | 0.00906807177143165 |
5 | 0.67 | 0.66723174443109 | 0.00276825556891014 |
6 | 0.67 | 0.669154920793752 | 0.000845079206248101 |
7 | 0.67 | 0.669742018449144 | 0.000257981550855879 |
8 | 0.68 | 0.669921244683232 | 0.0100787553167678 |
9 | 0.68 | 0.67692320801637 | 0.00307679198363031 |
10 | 0.67 | 0.679060732341147 | -0.00906073234114713 |
11 | 0.67 | 0.672766015024363 | -0.00276601502436324 |
12 | 0.67 | 0.670844395224022 | -0.000844395224021688 |
13 | 0.67 | 0.670257772748185 | -0.000257772748184837 |
14 | 0.67 | 0.670078691574533 | -7.86915745334404e-05 |
15 | 0.69 | 0.670024022570059 | 0.0199759774299409 |
16 | 0.69 | 0.683901833580644 | 0.00609816641935623 |
17 | 0.69 | 0.688138382273979 | 0.00186161772602056 |
18 | 0.69 | 0.689431694657129 | 0.000568305342870556 |
19 | 0.69 | 0.689826510589032 | 0.000173489410968175 |
20 | 0.69 | 0.689947038020853 | 5.29619791467262e-05 |
21 | 0.7 | 0.689983832032056 | 0.0100161679679439 |
22 | 0.69 | 0.696942314368998 | -0.00694231436899817 |
23 | 0.68 | 0.69211931498752 | -0.0121193149875201 |
24 | 0.7 | 0.683699723827867 | 0.0163002761721325 |
25 | 0.7 | 0.695023933265456 | 0.00497606673454398 |
26 | 0.71 | 0.698480931250173 | 0.011519068749827 |
27 | 0.69 | 0.706483516339623 | -0.0164835163396229 |
28 | 0.7 | 0.695032005375844 | 0.0049679946241562 |
29 | 0.7 | 0.698483395463635 | 0.00151660453636493 |
30 | 0.71 | 0.699537018557037 | 0.0104629814429626 |
31 | 0.71 | 0.706805913387438 | 0.00319408661256237 |
32 | 0.71 | 0.709024925223832 | 0.000975074776168317 |
33 | 0.71 | 0.709702334052126 | 0.000297665947873949 |
34 | 0.7 | 0.709909130029112 | -0.00990913002911242 |
35 | 0.7 | 0.70302500962471 | -0.00302500962471031 |
36 | 0.71 | 0.700923459799468 | 0.00907654020053161 |
37 | 0.71 | 0.707229159231435 | 0.00277084076856515 |
38 | 0.71 | 0.709154131596939 | 0.000845868403061001 |
39 | 0.71 | 0.709741777527091 | 0.000258222472909408 |
40 | 0.7 | 0.709921171135753 | -0.0099211711357533 |
41 | 0.69 | 0.703028685473486 | -0.0130286854734856 |
42 | 0.7 | 0.693977331898848 | 0.00602266810115237 |
43 | 0.7 | 0.698161430022727 | 0.00183856997727316 |
44 | 0.7 | 0.699438730558524 | 0.000561269441476164 |
45 | 0.71 | 0.699828658473798 | 0.0101713415262019 |
46 | 0.7 | 0.706894943761704 | -0.00689494376170452 |
47 | 0.7 | 0.702104853925593 | -0.00210485392559334 |
48 | 0.69 | 0.700642559272592 | -0.0106425592725923 |
49 | 0.7 | 0.693248907233688 | 0.00675109276631169 |
50 | 0.71 | 0.697939060186373 | 0.0120609398136271 |
51 | 0.71 | 0.706318096653078 | 0.00368190334692198 |
52 | 0.71 | 0.708876006972462 | 0.00112399302753829 |
53 | 0.71 | 0.709656873033614 | 0.000343126966385721 |
54 | 0.71 | 0.709895251916892 | 0.000104748083107675 |
55 | 0.71 | 0.709968023029404 | 3.19769705957595e-05 |
56 | 0.71 | 0.709990238230446 | 9.76176955369557e-06 |
57 | 0.71 | 0.709997019975844 | 2.98002415621834e-06 |
58 | 0.69 | 0.709999090273139 | -0.0199990902731393 |
59 | 0.7 | 0.696105222192459 | 0.00389477780754122 |
60 | 0.7 | 0.698811021722461 | 0.00118897827753861 |
61 | 0.7 | 0.699637034661715 | 0.000362965338284948 |
62 | 0.72 | 0.699889195758001 | 0.0201108042419993 |
63 | 0.7 | 0.713860674326204 | -0.013860674326204 |
64 | 0.69 | 0.704231317292089 | -0.014231317292089 |
65 | 0.7 | 0.694344465321819 | 0.00565553467818081 |
66 | 0.71 | 0.69827350667676 | 0.0117264933232401 |
67 | 0.72 | 0.706420194803915 | 0.0135798051960854 |
68 | 0.72 | 0.715854425030334 | 0.0041455749696655 |
69 | 0.73 | 0.718734459619931 | 0.011265540380069 |
70 | 0.72 | 0.726560912211551 | -0.0065609122115512 |
71 | 0.74 | 0.722002882445635 | 0.0179971175543652 |
72 | 0.75 | 0.734505930020188 | 0.0154940699798117 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.728514219506286 | 0.762025876208037 |
74 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.724867510869192 | 0.765672584845131 |
75 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.721780278863685 | 0.768759816850638 |
76 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.719054117982592 | 0.77148597773173 |
77 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.716585893503063 | 0.77395420221126 |
78 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.714313845848013 | 0.77622624986631 |
79 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.712197518854186 | 0.778342576860137 |
80 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.710208702953207 | 0.780331392761116 |
81 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.708326798970585 | 0.782213296743738 |
82 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.706536220649965 | 0.784003875064358 |
83 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.704824836744616 | 0.785715258969707 |
84 | 0.745270047857161 | 0.703182985311056 | 0.787357110403267 |