Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 59.7 | 61.6 | -1.90000000000001 |
4 | 60.2 | 60.6 | -0.400000000000006 |
5 | 61.3 | 61.1 | 0.199999999999989 |
6 | 59.8 | 62.2 | -2.40000000000001 |
7 | 61.2 | 60.7 | 0.5 |
8 | 59.3 | 62.1 | -2.80000000000001 |
9 | 59.4 | 60.2 | -0.800000000000004 |
10 | 63.1 | 60.3 | 2.8 |
11 | 68 | 64 | 4 |
12 | 69.4 | 68.9 | 0.5 |
13 | 70.2 | 70.3 | -0.100000000000009 |
14 | 72.6 | 71.1 | 1.49999999999999 |
15 | 72.1 | 73.5 | -1.40000000000001 |
16 | 69.7 | 73 | -3.3 |
17 | 71.5 | 70.6 | 0.899999999999991 |
18 | 75.7 | 72.4 | 3.3 |
19 | 76 | 76.6 | -0.600000000000009 |
20 | 76.4 | 76.9 | -0.5 |
21 | 83.8 | 77.3 | 6.49999999999999 |
22 | 86.2 | 84.7 | 1.5 |
23 | 88.5 | 87.1 | 1.39999999999999 |
24 | 95.9 | 89.4 | 6.5 |
25 | 103.1 | 96.8 | 6.29999999999998 |
26 | 113.5 | 104 | 9.5 |
27 | 115.7 | 114.4 | 1.3 |
28 | 113.1 | 116.6 | -3.50000000000001 |
29 | 112.7 | 114 | -1.3 |
30 | 121.9 | 113.6 | 8.3 |
31 | 120.3 | 122.8 | -2.50000000000001 |
32 | 108.7 | 121.2 | -12.5 |
33 | 102.8 | 109.6 | -6.80000000000001 |
34 | 83.4 | 103.7 | -20.3 |
35 | 79.4 | 84.3 | -4.90000000000001 |
36 | 77.8 | 80.3 | -2.50000000000001 |
37 | 85.7 | 78.7 | 7 |
38 | 83.2 | 86.6 | -3.40000000000001 |
39 | 82 | 84.1 | -2.10000000000001 |
40 | 86.9 | 82.9 | 4 |
41 | 95.7 | 87.8 | 7.89999999999999 |
42 | 97.9 | 96.6 | 1.3 |
43 | 89.3 | 98.8 | -9.50000000000001 |
44 | 91.5 | 90.2 | 1.3 |
45 | 86.8 | 92.4 | -5.60000000000001 |
46 | 91 | 87.7 | 3.3 |
47 | 93.8 | 91.9 | 1.89999999999999 |
48 | 96.8 | 94.7 | 2.09999999999999 |
49 | 95.7 | 97.7 | -2 |
50 | 91.4 | 96.6 | -5.2 |
51 | 88.7 | 92.3 | -3.60000000000001 |
52 | 88.2 | 89.6 | -1.40000000000001 |
53 | 87.7 | 89.1 | -1.40000000000001 |
54 | 89.5 | 88.6 | 0.899999999999991 |
55 | 95.6 | 90.4 | 5.19999999999999 |
56 | 100.5 | 96.5 | 4 |
57 | 106.3 | 101.4 | 4.89999999999999 |
58 | 112 | 107.2 | 4.8 |
59 | 117.7 | 112.9 | 4.8 |
60 | 125 | 118.6 | 6.39999999999999 |
61 | 132.4 | 125.9 | 6.5 |
62 | 138.1 | 133.3 | 4.79999999999998 |
63 | 134.7 | 139 | -4.30000000000001 |
64 | 136.7 | 135.6 | 1.09999999999999 |
65 | 134.3 | 137.6 | -3.29999999999998 |
66 | 131.6 | 135.2 | -3.60000000000002 |
67 | 129.8 | 132.5 | -2.69999999999999 |
68 | 131.9 | 130.7 | 1.19999999999999 |
69 | 129.8 | 132.8 | -3 |
70 | 119.4 | 130.7 | -11.3 |
71 | 116.7 | 120.3 | -3.60000000000001 |
72 | 112.8 | 117.6 | -4.80000000000001 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 113.7 | 103.681811116668 | 123.718188883332 |
74 | 114.6 | 100.432141410776 | 128.767858589224 |
75 | 115.5 | 98.1479878542465 | 132.852012145754 |
76 | 116.4 | 96.3636222333351 | 136.436377766665 |
77 | 117.3 | 94.8986486454359 | 139.701351354564 |
78 | 118.2 | 93.6605490890127 | 142.739450910987 |
79 | 119.1 | 92.5943636274304 | 145.60563637257 |
80 | 120 | 91.6642828215517 | 148.335717178448 |
81 | 120.9 | 90.8454333500026 | 150.954566649997 |
82 | 121.8 | 90.1197050988906 | 153.48029490111 |
83 | 122.7 | 89.4734263950767 | 155.926573604923 |
84 | 123.6 | 88.895975708493 | 158.304024291507 |