| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.948539541872876 |
| beta | 0.106971000311536 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 562 | 542.603753604565 | 19.3962463954354 |
| 14 | 561 | 562.678933206395 | -1.67893320639473 |
| 15 | 555 | 557.137124532184 | -2.13712453218363 |
| 16 | 544 | 545.296186541333 | -1.29618654133264 |
| 17 | 537 | 537.632301941893 | -0.632301941892933 |
| 18 | 543 | 543.773941164935 | -0.773941164935422 |
| 19 | 594 | 610.624553799895 | -16.6245537998951 |
| 20 | 611 | 605.220496232722 | 5.77950376727813 |
| 21 | 613 | 607.932497543003 | 5.06750245699664 |
| 22 | 611 | 599.192822295498 | 11.8071777045018 |
| 23 | 594 | 592.659863243343 | 1.34013675665688 |
| 24 | 595 | 604.422702468874 | -9.42270246887358 |
| 25 | 591 | 605.459975445823 | -14.4599754458228 |
| 26 | 589 | 589.750678483175 | -0.750678483175307 |
| 27 | 584 | 582.406025010545 | 1.59397498945452 |
| 28 | 573 | 571.610394058016 | 1.38960594198386 |
| 29 | 567 | 564.468985374053 | 2.53101462594702 |
| 30 | 569 | 572.567019939157 | -3.56701993915703 |
| 31 | 621 | 637.298145630072 | -16.2981456300724 |
| 32 | 629 | 632.134000993396 | -3.13400099339594 |
| 33 | 628 | 623.664150525547 | 4.3358494744532 |
| 34 | 612 | 611.649859988723 | 0.35014001127729 |
| 35 | 595 | 590.144061783046 | 4.85593821695431 |
| 36 | 597 | 601.488049543399 | -4.48804954339937 |
| 37 | 593 | 604.226360276144 | -11.2263602761443 |
| 38 | 590 | 589.890697547138 | 0.109302452862153 |
| 39 | 580 | 581.207594724467 | -1.2075947244673 |
| 40 | 574 | 565.366113719621 | 8.63388628037865 |
| 41 | 573 | 563.433909582901 | 9.5660904170993 |
| 42 | 573 | 576.913257121291 | -3.91325712129094 |
| 43 | 620 | 639.963572355659 | -19.9635723556589 |
| 44 | 626 | 630.448972435654 | -4.44897243565447 |
| 45 | 620 | 619.473527042259 | 0.526472957741362 |
| 46 | 588 | 601.870139678719 | -13.8701396787188 |
| 47 | 566 | 564.66841391285 | 1.33158608714996 |
| 48 | 557 | 568.276074636279 | -11.2760746362794 |
| 49 | 561 | 559.450170798403 | 1.54982920159671 |
| 50 | 549 | 554.888995403089 | -5.88899540308944 |
| 51 | 532 | 537.417050194715 | -5.4170501947151 |
| 52 | 526 | 515.27598232316 | 10.7240176768399 |
| 53 | 511 | 512.60155946387 | -1.60155946386953 |
| 54 | 499 | 509.754974120899 | -10.7549741208985 |
| 55 | 555 | 551.070331799379 | 3.92966820062145 |
| 56 | 565 | 560.105194146824 | 4.89480585317574 |
| 57 | 542 | 555.981011405067 | -13.9810114050669 |
| 58 | 527 | 521.951665254044 | 5.0483347459558 |
| 59 | 510 | 503.515694626677 | 6.48430537332337 |
| 60 | 514 | 509.332320109861 | 4.66767989013937 |
| 61 | 517 | 515.807527831619 | 1.19247216838119 |
| 62 | 508 | 510.715216383636 | -2.71521638363578 |
| 63 | 493 | 497.137331636749 | -4.13733163674885 |
| 64 | 490 | 478.281851246005 | 11.7181487539953 |
| 65 | 469 | 477.108866318261 | -8.10886631826145 |
| 66 | 478 | 467.303404905058 | 10.6965950949416 |
| 67 | 528 | 529.452570270776 | -1.45257027077594 |
| 68 | 534 | 534.633319338108 | -0.633319338108436 |
| 69 | 518 | 525.705125960583 | -7.70512596058279 |
| 70 | 506 | 500.932743898891 | 5.06725610110948 |
| 71 | 502 | 484.967570827737 | 17.0324291722632 |
| 72 | 516 | 503.342649755862 | 12.6573502441378 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 520.776912236434 | 504.51284332318 | 537.040981149688 |
| 74 | 517.728502638549 | 494.229076358091 | 541.227928919007 |
| 75 | 510.119883747012 | 480.414482196152 | 539.825285297871 |
| 76 | 499.574685313812 | 464.231949365214 | 534.91742126241 |
| 77 | 488.743325503902 | 448.047011282721 | 529.439639725084 |
| 78 | 491.203303334769 | 444.222961474621 | 538.183645194917 |
| 79 | 546.786284149115 | 488.220833488875 | 605.351734809355 |
| 80 | 556.628819766394 | 490.564551381027 | 622.69308815176 |
| 81 | 550.61750682108 | 478.75694701731 | 622.478066624849 |
| 82 | 536.581318803463 | 460.030384302401 | 613.132253304524 |
| 83 | 518.34068619776 | 437.888717695586 | 598.792654699933 |
| 84 | 521.696250914116 | 429.175056936472 | 614.217444891759 |
