Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[229])
228	3.62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
229	4.39	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
230	5.01	4.3878	3.9745	4.8012	0.0016	0.4959	0.4959	0.4959
231	4.07	4.3857	3.8013	4.9701	0.1449	0.0181	0.0181	0.4942
232	3.7	4.3835	3.6679	5.0991	0.0306	0.8048	0.8048	0.4929
233	3.59	4.3814	3.5553	5.2074	0.0302	0.947	0.947	0.4918
234	3.44	4.3792	3.4558	5.3026	0.0231	0.9531	0.9531	0.4909
235	3.33	4.377	3.3658	5.3883	0.0212	0.9653	0.9653	0.49
236	2.98	4.3749	3.2829	5.4669	0.0061	0.9696	0.9696	0.4892
237	3.14	4.3727	3.2056	5.5398	0.0192	0.9903	0.9903	0.4884
238	2.55	4.3706	3.133	5.6082	0.002	0.9743	0.9743	0.4877
239	2.49	4.3684	3.0642	5.6727	0.0024	0.9969	0.9969	0.4871
240	2.53	4.3663	2.9987	5.7338	0.0042	0.9964	0.9964	0.4864
241	2.43	4.3641	2.9361	5.7921	0.004	0.9941	0.9941	0.4858

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE
230	0.0481	0.1418	0	0.3871	0	0
231	0.068	-0.072	0.1069	0.0997	0.2434	0.4933
232	0.0833	-0.1559	0.1232	0.4672	0.318	0.5639
233	0.0962	-0.1806	0.1376	0.6262	0.395	0.6285
234	0.1076	-0.2145	0.153	0.8821	0.4925	0.7017
235	0.1179	-0.2392	0.1673	1.0963	0.5931	0.7701
236	0.1274	-0.3188	0.189	1.9457	0.7863	0.8867
237	0.1362	-0.2819	0.2006	1.5196	0.878	0.937
238	0.1445	-0.4166	0.2246	3.3145	1.1487	1.0718
239	0.1523	-0.43	0.2451	3.5284	1.3867	1.1776
240	0.1598	-0.4206	0.2611	3.3719	1.5671	1.2519
241	0.1669	-0.4432	0.2763	3.7408	1.7483	1.3222