| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.653336794717538 |
| beta | 0.0529479297781898 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 5645 | 6814.02804487179 | -1169.02804487179 |
| 14 | 4873 | 5266.03361772966 | -393.033617729662 |
| 15 | 4240 | 4345.17875692662 | -105.178756926623 |
| 16 | 4240 | 4199.04330395661 | 40.9566960433949 |
| 17 | 6670 | 6547.5919941447 | 122.408005855303 |
| 18 | 6923 | 6733.88192810384 | 189.118071896157 |
| 19 | 4999 | 4879.58979890093 | 119.410201099067 |
| 20 | 2823 | 3603.09402303204 | -780.094023032042 |
| 21 | 3974 | 3162.97504671028 | 811.024953289724 |
| 22 | 3974 | 3675.03162465166 | 298.968375348337 |
| 23 | 4873 | 3983.55162831497 | 889.448371685027 |
| 24 | 5391 | 4838.03914375957 | 552.960856240428 |
| 25 | 5265 | 4033.76478993337 | 1231.23521006663 |
| 26 | 3974 | 4425.94999741163 | -451.949997411632 |
| 27 | 4620 | 3667.3441200697 | 952.655879930305 |
| 28 | 4366 | 4400.53677056496 | -34.5367705649587 |
| 29 | 6543 | 6862.93346862741 | -319.933468627411 |
| 30 | 6024 | 6902.9840182814 | -878.984018281397 |
| 31 | 3974 | 4409.38031580656 | -435.380315806563 |
| 32 | 2443 | 2522.08666661924 | -79.086666619241 |
| 33 | 3848 | 3179.28602498548 | 668.713975014515 |
| 34 | 4240 | 3503.67352140846 | 736.326478591538 |
| 35 | 4620 | 4400.58190088295 | 219.418099117054 |
| 36 | 5125 | 4775.43644755026 | 349.563552449745 |
| 37 | 4100 | 4141.14212677648 | -41.1421267764772 |
| 38 | 3215 | 3142.2571043931 | 72.7428956069025 |
| 39 | 3595 | 3255.2472681885 | 339.752731811499 |
| 40 | 3721 | 3266.45200971549 | 454.547990284506 |
| 41 | 7049 | 5987.03570774092 | 1061.96429225908 |
| 42 | 7049 | 6821.51887507965 | 227.481124920355 |
| 43 | 5125 | 5328.25662492925 | -203.256624929254 |
| 44 | 4873 | 3847.82761873654 | 1025.17238126346 |
| 45 | 5645 | 5655.61025401861 | -10.610254018613 |
| 46 | 5265 | 5706.00449790705 | -441.004497907054 |
| 47 | 6290 | 5760.19439865594 | 529.805601344056 |
| 48 | 7568 | 6499.35862692622 | 1068.64137307378 |
| 49 | 7821 | 6340.7014246504 | 1480.2985753496 |
| 50 | 6024 | 6569.22068461322 | -545.22068461322 |
| 51 | 5518 | 6543.56922356257 | -1025.56922356257 |
| 52 | 4999 | 5827.85807021621 | -828.85807021621 |
| 53 | 8466 | 8001.42148288464 | 464.578517115362 |
| 54 | 8720 | 8216.5679024865 | 503.432097513498 |
| 55 | 8074 | 6824.06154190377 | 1249.93845809623 |
| 56 | 8720 | 6838.96751625859 | 1881.03248374141 |
| 57 | 8593 | 8996.51196910514 | -403.51196910514 |
| 58 | 7568 | 8777.08028498333 | -1209.08028498333 |
| 59 | 8720 | 8775.50530522676 | -55.5053052267613 |
| 60 | 9998 | 9408.31450811527 | 589.685491884733 |
| 61 | 10516 | 9152.13136158832 | 1363.86863841168 |
| 62 | 8973 | 8671.06917038019 | 301.930829619811 |
| 63 | 7948 | 9130.33867870405 | -1182.33867870405 |
| 64 | 8720 | 8472.93857032505 | 247.061429674948 |
| 65 | 12048 | 11927.5875341226 | 120.412465877391 |
| 66 | 13073 | 12049.2019182249 | 1023.79808177512 |
| 67 | 12820 | 11391.3122245626 | 1428.68777543739 |
| 68 | 13325 | 11883.818362569 | 1441.18163743103 |
| 69 | 13199 | 13088.8484646643 | 110.151535335683 |
| 70 | 11921 | 13070.3441222664 | -1149.34412226638 |
| 71 | 14098 | 13654.3583871948 | 443.641612805235 |
| 72 | 14616 | 15000.8688637835 | -384.868863783513 |
| 73 | 15375 | 14506.5680318705 | 868.431968129458 |
| 74 | 13073 | 13446.7592356102 | -373.759235610238 |
| 75 | 12174 | 13039.7350708864 | -865.735070886367 |
| 76 | 13199 | 13185.3575207007 | 13.6424792993457 |
| 77 | 15641 | 16536.1794863225 | -895.17948632253 |
| 78 | 17818 | 16364.8873587802 | 1453.11264121982 |
| 79 | 17299 | 16200.1427541193 | 1098.85724588067 |
| 80 | 17299 | 16542.3775935297 | 756.62240647032 |
| 81 | 17553 | 16875.9479188945 | 677.052081105521 |
| 82 | 16666 | 16848.0175734487 | -182.017573448742 |
| 83 | 18970 | 18706.5317828371 | 263.468217162874 |
| 84 | 18970 | 19732.1619221431 | -762.161922143117 |
| 85 | 18578 | 19496.8309704276 | -918.830970427625 |
| 86 | 16400 | 16847.8851000518 | -447.88510005179 |
| 87 | 16793 | 16228.4871869293 | 564.512813070658 |
| 88 | 17046 | 17669.4726943093 | -623.472694309254 |
| 89 | 18716 | 20323.03077076 | -1607.03077075995 |
| 90 | 20893 | 20510.1435634687 | 382.856436531343 |
| 91 | 19349 | 19495.7477788162 | -146.747778816156 |
| 92 | 20121 | 18834.8476828871 | 1286.15231711289 |
| 93 | 19475 | 19434.4181026756 | 40.5818973243549 |
| 94 | 19096 | 18618.4560460191 | 477.543953980949 |
| 95 | 22045 | 21010.7412206145 | 1034.25877938552 |
| 96 | 21399 | 22159.4944100372 | -760.494410037212 |
| 97 | 20500 | 21846.0846411751 | -1346.08464117508 |
| 98 | 19223 | 19041.6210483364 | 181.378951663552 |
| 99 | 20500 | 19166.4368405769 | 1333.56315942306 |
| 100 | 21146 | 20706.7752420545 | 439.224757945492 |
| 101 | 21918 | 23759.1658530859 | -1841.16585308592 |
| 102 | 22943 | 24520.5274464705 | -1577.52744647053 |
| 103 | 21918 | 22011.3284040947 | -93.3284040947146 |
| 104 | 22550 | 21853.4927783502 | 696.507221649837 |
| 105 | 21779 | 21587.0653213658 | 191.934678634178 |
| 106 | 21653 | 20977.73438806 | 675.265611939951 |
| 107 | 24854 | 23655.2988097516 | 1198.70119024838 |
| 108 | 25120 | 24258.1097789864 | 861.890221013608 |
| 109 | 24095 | 24826.5802707031 | -731.580270703118 |
| 110 | 22298 | 22999.2871367612 | -701.287136761217 |
| 111 | 23829 | 22962.4873660427 | 866.512633957307 |
| 112 | 24474 | 23887.1364571295 | 586.863542870498 |
| 113 | 25246 | 26250.050843411 | -1004.05084341104 |
| 114 | 26398 | 27683.2758301766 | -1285.27583017657 |
| 115 | 25246 | 25923.1941511181 | -677.194151118074 |
| 116 | 26145 | 25681.1683621497 | 463.83163785033 |
| 117 | 25753 | 25103.2236057073 | 649.776394292701 |
| 118 | 24348 | 24991.8235586498 | -643.823558649779 |
| 119 | 27296 | 26974.6563133233 | 321.343686676715 |
| 120 | 27296 | 26842.7690618811 | 453.230938118872 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 26532.9848266968 | 24963.4047555816 | 28102.5648978119 |
| 122 | 25160.603956572 | 23255.4885745893 | 27065.7193385547 |
| 123 | 26116.181316701 | 23899.0774505077 | 28333.2851828942 |
| 124 | 26338.4885927759 | 23822.990120778 | 28853.9870647738 |
| 125 | 27706.897503455 | 24901.2051103749 | 30512.5898965351 |
| 126 | 29673.7740064506 | 26582.8231110307 | 32764.7249018704 |
| 127 | 28983.829703556 | 25610.4291016311 | 32357.2303054809 |
| 128 | 29622.8373316465 | 25968.3375693513 | 33277.3370939417 |
| 129 | 28833.3151592338 | 24898.0280958727 | 32768.602222595 |
| 130 | 27853.4718289044 | 23636.9477800094 | 32069.9958777994 |
| 131 | 30618.3209035303 | 26119.5391770305 | 35117.10263003 |
| 132 | 30337.886996276 | 25555.3911695231 | 35120.3828230289 |
