| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.670019604263073 |
| beta | 0.0548037596931145 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 1839 | 1943.50747863248 | -104.507478632478 |
| 14 | 1819 | 1852.10744587038 | -33.1074458703802 |
| 15 | 1757 | 1761.45614285365 | -4.45614285364627 |
| 16 | 1664 | 1656.71314679217 | 7.28685320783075 |
| 17 | 1922 | 1913.27242525816 | 8.72757474184436 |
| 18 | 1839 | 1833.57582172528 | 5.42417827472241 |
| 19 | 1633 | 1737.32338475279 | -104.323384752786 |
| 20 | 1674 | 1546.87388343011 | 127.126116569893 |
| 21 | 1633 | 1633.70977136584 | -0.70977136584429 |
| 22 | 1736 | 1629.03371240698 | 106.966287593021 |
| 23 | 1591 | 1711.30548244631 | -120.305482446306 |
| 24 | 1684 | 1648.79980933336 | 35.2001906666367 |
| 25 | 1602 | 1599.45976997851 | 2.54023002149165 |
| 26 | 1581 | 1604.45955648684 | -23.4595564868443 |
| 27 | 1416 | 1531.1963081942 | -115.196308194202 |
| 28 | 1354 | 1353.53326640991 | 0.466733590085596 |
| 29 | 1664 | 1603.15098641855 | 60.8490135814527 |
| 30 | 1602 | 1556.35323620578 | 45.6467637942169 |
| 31 | 1405 | 1451.37965634023 | -46.3796563402313 |
| 32 | 1529 | 1378.79853773767 | 150.201462262329 |
| 33 | 1426 | 1442.43049078308 | -16.4304907830808 |
| 34 | 1509 | 1465.69343975453 | 43.3065602454731 |
| 35 | 1426 | 1430.92036613489 | -4.92036613489358 |
| 36 | 1571 | 1501.87935138052 | 69.1206486194781 |
| 37 | 1447 | 1470.57562736117 | -23.5756273611682 |
| 38 | 1426 | 1454.62498419593 | -28.6249841959348 |
| 39 | 1230 | 1352.56692263271 | -122.566922632712 |
| 40 | 1168 | 1212.79876920505 | -44.7987692050458 |
| 41 | 1612 | 1455.01736096008 | 156.982639039919 |
| 42 | 1509 | 1474.14924503855 | 34.8507549614505 |
| 43 | 1333 | 1337.7134530246 | -4.71345302460486 |
| 44 | 1498 | 1365.58562878469 | 132.414371215309 |
| 45 | 1374 | 1369.32967556184 | 4.67032443816083 |
| 46 | 1333 | 1434.23252473535 | -101.232524735351 |
| 47 | 1312 | 1289.18395851523 | 22.816041484768 |
| 48 | 1416 | 1406.65990174802 | 9.34009825197836 |
| 49 | 1240 | 1306.01990347649 | -66.0199034764896 |
| 50 | 1240 | 1259.71185817746 | -19.7118581774625 |
| 51 | 1095 | 1132.70133784216 | -37.7013378421595 |
| 52 | 1044 | 1078.64755584275 | -34.647555842753 |
| 53 | 1560 | 1397.81511677715 | 162.184883222848 |
| 54 | 1426 | 1383.88605156965 | 42.113948430351 |
| 55 | 1302 | 1243.28260263761 | 58.7173973623906 |
| 56 | 1405 | 1365.2546144918 | 39.7453855081994 |
| 57 | 1261 | 1267.7032546657 | -6.70325466569966 |
| 58 | 1199 | 1292.5697472253 | -93.5697472253048 |
| 59 | 1250 | 1196.40038964254 | 53.5996103574601 |
| 60 | 1405 | 1333.99689307078 | 71.0031069292218 |
| 61 | 1199 | 1256.01099952552 | -57.0109995255159 |
| 62 | 1281 | 1237.5566501378 | 43.4433498621963 |
| 63 | 1178 | 1155.78102177834 | 22.2189782216569 |
| 64 | 1137 | 1153.93880416597 | -16.9388041659745 |
| 65 | 1591 | 1561.62876992643 | 29.3712300735747 |
| 66 | 1498 | 1425.92038337545 | 72.0796166245464 |
| 67 | 1250 | 1318.80314394873 | -68.8031439487334 |
| 68 | 1374 | 1352.32081048507 | 21.6791895149258 |
| 69 | 1312 | 1229.92153041858 | 82.0784695814182 |
| 70 | 1354 | 1291.4532338626 | 62.5467661373957 |
| 71 | 1426 | 1360.02449325807 | 65.9755067419273 |
| 72 | 1622 | 1523.68683007368 | 98.3131699263233 |
| 73 | 1488 | 1434.79081053426 | 53.2091894657412 |
| 74 | 1540 | 1540.41509695491 | -0.41509695490663 |
| 75 | 1457 | 1437.72034096295 | 19.2796590370483 |
| 76 | 1395 | 1436.35000884069 | -41.3500088406868 |
| 77 | 1860 | 1857.43161031617 | 2.56838968382522 |
| 78 | 1746 | 1731.33975413474 | 14.6602458652585 |
| 79 | 1467 | 1550.63547418708 | -83.6354741870816 |
| 80 | 1426 | 1614.90156039382 | -188.901560393824 |
| 81 | 1343 | 1374.43616393941 | -31.436163939411 |
| 82 | 1374 | 1352.3940831289 | 21.6059168710988 |
| 83 | 1354 | 1392.09058155161 | -38.0905815516098 |
| 84 | 1529 | 1490.30112298868 | 38.6988770113214 |
| 85 | 1343 | 1337.99364560697 | 5.00635439303005 |
| 86 | 1405 | 1383.27085221667 | 21.7291477833339 |
| 87 | 1364 | 1292.36991328265 | 71.6300867173477 |
| 88 | 1323 | 1298.44893420138 | 24.5510657986172 |
| 89 | 1829 | 1772.97776081996 | 56.0222391800357 |
| 90 | 1726 | 1683.45391349796 | 42.5460865020439 |
| 91 | 1447 | 1486.78479587116 | -39.7847958711639 |
| 92 | 1343 | 1545.09289351788 | -202.092893517882 |
| 93 | 1188 | 1346.66210080466 | -158.662100804662 |
| 94 | 1199 | 1251.11987197474 | -52.1198719747383 |
| 95 | 1178 | 1213.25366840366 | -35.2536684036556 |
| 96 | 1323 | 1330.34187953403 | -7.34187953403148 |
| 97 | 1064 | 1126.01558920911 | -62.0155892091077 |
| 98 | 1054 | 1119.39122363783 | -65.3912236378285 |
| 99 | 1013 | 970.871484851709 | 42.1285151482914 |
| 100 | 899 | 924.852660150457 | -25.8526601504575 |
| 101 | 1467 | 1357.34800782171 | 109.651992178286 |
| 102 | 1405 | 1282.63267822963 | 122.367321770365 |
| 103 | 1095 | 1098.53117726752 | -3.53117726751998 |
| 104 | 1002 | 1115.15603929041 | -113.156039290414 |
| 105 | 847 | 981.496337220672 | -134.496337220672 |
| 106 | 816 | 929.040192191474 | -113.040192191474 |
| 107 | 713 | 845.422428534591 | -132.422428534591 |
| 108 | 858 | 892.548743459247 | -34.5487434592468 |
| 109 | 486 | 636.885778465417 | -150.885778465417 |
| 110 | 444 | 551.273183346434 | -107.273183346434 |
| 111 | 403 | 390.303660587484 | 12.6963394125158 |
| 112 | 331 | 281.184052636765 | 49.8159473632348 |
| 113 | 940 | 790.92305668614 | 149.07694331386 |
| 114 | 889 | 730.097022034544 | 158.902977965456 |
| 115 | 568 | 513.550660173782 | 54.4493398262179 |
| 116 | 506 | 519.598140704846 | -13.5981407048464 |
| 117 | 351 | 436.006618787475 | -85.0066187874747 |
| 118 | 362 | 416.01122118012 | -54.0112211801202 |
| 119 | 300 | 359.937345749248 | -59.9373457492482 |
| 120 | 403 | 484.977185703922 | -81.9771857039218 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 154.456441856164 | 3.95400075524336 | 304.958882957085 |
| 122 | 185.181190242176 | 0.886032135124339 | 369.476348349227 |
| 123 | 140.463034138848 | -75.1398558666208 | 356.065924144317 |
| 124 | 39.4078085853153 | -206.095285787732 | 284.910902958363 |
| 125 | 551.016548475084 | 276.449112779989 | 825.583984170179 |
| 126 | 390.567607775042 | 87.4303281319577 | 693.704887418126 |
| 127 | 24.269799626856 | -307.162926549684 | 355.702525803396 |
| 128 | -39.4342201631283 | -399.037729179344 | 320.169288853087 |
| 129 | -147.793841529732 | -535.549418402173 | 239.961735342708 |
| 130 | -107.799578458563 | -523.765736956952 | 308.166580039827 |
| 131 | -134.851425668988 | -579.144277846294 | 309.441426508317 |
| 132 | 20.0647269293287 | -452.714661130127 | 492.844114988785 |
