| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.0092611860578751 |
| beta | 1 |
| gamma | 0.929768627342217 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 600 | 620.518162393163 | -20.5181623931626 |
| 14 | 450 | 470.018653484721 | -20.018653484721 |
| 15 | 530 | 554.338374146668 | -24.3383741466682 |
| 16 | 400 | 423.392686860528 | -23.3926868605284 |
| 17 | 560 | 574.739113734889 | -14.7391137348892 |
| 18 | 460 | 466.029181285405 | -6.029181285405 |
| 19 | 610 | 582.760742437893 | 27.2392575621072 |
| 20 | 550 | 600.052676624764 | -50.0526766247636 |
| 21 | 580 | 669.498582010773 | -89.4985820107735 |
| 22 | 650 | 576.500308507864 | 73.4996914921358 |
| 23 | 640 | 545.275619994417 | 94.7243800055835 |
| 24 | 760 | 687.624757377761 | 72.3752426222393 |
| 25 | 550 | 560.703395789374 | -10.7033957893736 |
| 26 | 460 | 411.024094600826 | 48.9759053991743 |
| 27 | 510 | 492.91179826455 | 17.0882017354501 |
| 28 | 370 | 364.51271294219 | 5.48728705781025 |
| 29 | 530 | 525.657187856669 | 4.34281214333146 |
| 30 | 410 | 426.883199001843 | -16.8831990018433 |
| 31 | 580 | 575.795201700607 | 4.20479829939279 |
| 32 | 550 | 523.097888275924 | 26.9021117240756 |
| 33 | 490 | 559.055424857406 | -69.0554248574065 |
| 34 | 700 | 618.717793731879 | 81.2822062681213 |
| 35 | 630 | 609.512717189373 | 20.4872828106272 |
| 36 | 720 | 732.295971563084 | -12.2959715630843 |
| 37 | 540 | 528.986481161091 | 11.0135188389095 |
| 38 | 500 | 435.608054953968 | 64.391945046032 |
| 39 | 450 | 489.533383949162 | -39.533383949162 |
| 40 | 370 | 350.667722339592 | 19.3322776604081 |
| 41 | 490 | 511.758477824285 | -21.7584778242848 |
| 42 | 440 | 393.820825618021 | 46.179174381979 |
| 43 | 600 | 563.956840383082 | 36.043159616918 |
| 44 | 580 | 533.97166283517 | 46.0283371648302 |
| 45 | 500 | 483.400888818274 | 16.5991111817263 |
| 46 | 670 | 684.82107211235 | -14.8210721123506 |
| 47 | 620 | 620.314073057059 | -0.314073057058749 |
| 48 | 800 | 714.103314152894 | 85.8966858471065 |
| 49 | 640 | 535.481489776572 | 104.518510223428 |
| 50 | 390 | 495.311520142459 | -105.311520142459 |
| 51 | 390 | 453.534436228575 | -63.5344362285746 |
| 52 | 390 | 370.049662341757 | 19.9503376582434 |
| 53 | 460 | 494.679391724344 | -34.6793917243438 |
| 54 | 460 | 440.468038953223 | 19.5319610467773 |
| 55 | 620 | 602.038273996367 | 17.9617260036333 |
| 56 | 570 | 581.933985079786 | -11.933985079786 |
| 57 | 510 | 504.031067624401 | 5.96893237559868 |
| 58 | 640 | 676.625025213089 | -36.625025213089 |
| 59 | 590 | 625.292572917798 | -35.2925729177985 |
| 60 | 850 | 797.860888934608 | 52.1391110653922 |
| 61 | 670 | 635.456732743865 | 34.5432672561346 |
| 62 | 390 | 400.080735739202 | -10.0807357392018 |
| 63 | 410 | 397.27945096046 | 12.7205490395399 |
| 64 | 340 | 391.720316145676 | -51.7203161456756 |
| 65 | 470 | 465.016701228011 | 4.98329877198853 |
| 66 | 540 | 461.130225617764 | 78.8697743822364 |
| 67 | 680 | 622.373442870589 | 57.6265571294114 |
| 68 | 670 | 576.03504930247 | 93.9649506975298 |
| 69 | 540 | 517.522266024472 | 22.4777339755277 |
| 70 | 630 | 653.104217827974 | -23.1042178279738 |
| 71 | 560 | 605.320464127786 | -45.3204641277857 |
| 72 | 800 | 860.43750431435 | -60.4375043143498 |
| 73 | 610 | 681.842823010622 | -71.8428230106224 |
| 74 | 490 | 404.451169654595 | 85.5488303454046 |
| 75 | 440 | 424.500110582851 | 15.4998894171488 |
| 76 | 330 | 360.59324546617 | -30.5932454661701 |
| 77 | 490 | 487.500674624831 | 2.49932537516941 |
| 78 | 590 | 552.811699585052 | 37.1883004149478 |
| 79 | 690 | 694.873917201963 | -4.87391720196274 |
| 80 | 650 | 681.624640648166 | -31.6246406481662 |
| 81 | 480 | 555.129176568292 | -75.1291765682925 |
| 82 | 690 | 645.946483202963 | 44.0535167970368 |
| 83 | 540 | 577.069464089117 | -37.0694640891168 |
| 84 | 830 | 817.163596240815 | 12.8364037591846 |
| 85 | 690 | 628.245880898657 | 61.7541191013432 |
| 86 | 500 | 497.815781231225 | 2.18421876877517 |
| 87 | 460 | 452.53620663209 | 7.46379336791034 |
| 88 | 310 | 345.991112805952 | -35.991112805952 |
| 89 | 490 | 503.177291517978 | -13.1772915179777 |
| 90 | 470 | 599.997228840156 | -129.997228840156 |
| 91 | 710 | 699.91690537507 | 10.0830946249298 |
| 92 | 710 | 660.454766682995 | 49.5452333170048 |
| 93 | 540 | 493.67847324145 | 46.3215267585495 |
| 94 | 700 | 695.573397462066 | 4.4266025379344 |
| 95 | 520 | 551.402086261842 | -31.4020862618415 |
| 96 | 810 | 837.372146662017 | -27.3721466620167 |
| 97 | 690 | 692.622870739758 | -2.6228707397579 |
| 98 | 510 | 505.606954136261 | 4.39304586373925 |
| 99 | 390 | 464.115286609446 | -74.1152866094465 |
| 100 | 270 | 314.934455057963 | -44.9344550579627 |
| 101 | 530 | 491.118722813347 | 38.8812771866529 |
| 102 | 510 | 479.359088061225 | 30.6409119387748 |
| 103 | 670 | 709.838164133241 | -39.8381641332408 |
| 104 | 770 | 705.837832660978 | 64.1621673390221 |
| 105 | 570 | 535.936014629928 | 34.0639853700717 |
| 106 | 640 | 698.720708993055 | -58.720708993055 |
| 107 | 480 | 519.971009786015 | -39.971009786015 |
| 108 | 830 | 808.504873512225 | 21.4951264877752 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 109 | 686.389676783005 | 594.727011022747 | 778.052342543263 |
| 110 | 505.268628805143 | 413.590240658931 | 596.947016951356 |
| 111 | 390.784834515567 | 299.071080855542 | 482.498588175593 |
| 112 | 269.224072576532 | 177.447480541008 | 361.000664612057 |
| 113 | 523.501675774102 | 431.626984818308 | 615.376366729896 |
| 114 | 503.900858211929 | 411.885088544334 | 595.916627879525 |
| 115 | 668.999617729772 | 576.792171105584 | 761.20706435396 |
| 116 | 761.363717095516 | 668.906515353707 | 853.820918837324 |
| 117 | 562.74304509109 | 469.970711015437 | 655.515379166743 |
| 118 | 639.027983385116 | 545.868067433486 | 732.187899336747 |
| 119 | 477.922431926907 | 384.295687114637 | 571.549176739177 |
| 120 | 823.645559965858 | 729.466265737608 | 917.824854194107 |
